Are Investors Undervaluing Novem Group S.A. (ETR:NVM) By 36%?
Current share price of €4.45 suggests Novem Group is potentially 36% undervalued
Novem Group's peers are currently trading at a premium of 202% on average
In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Novem Group S.A. (ETR:NVM) by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.
Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
This technology could replace computers: discover the 20 stocks are working to make quantum computing a reality.
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
Levered FCF (€, Millions)
€19.1m
€20.5m
€29.2m
€25.5m
€23.3m
€22.0m
€21.2m
€20.7m
€20.5m
€20.4m
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x2
Analyst x2
Analyst x1
Est @ -12.80%
Est @ -8.58%
Est @ -5.63%
Est @ -3.56%
Est @ -2.11%
Est @ -1.10%
Est @ -0.39%
Present Value (€, Millions) Discounted @ 7.9%
€17.7
€17.6
€23.3
€18.8
€15.9
€13.9
€12.5
€11.3
€10.4
€9.6
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = €151m
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.3%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 7.9%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = €20m× (1 + 1.3%) ÷ (7.9%– 1.3%) = €313m
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= €313m÷ ( 1 + 7.9%)10= €147m
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is €297m. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of €4.5, the company appears quite undervalued at a 36% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Novem Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.527. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
See our latest analysis for Novem Group
Strength
No major strengths identified for NVM.
Weakness
Earnings declined over the past year.
Interest payments on debt are not well covered.
Opportunity
Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.
Threat
Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.
Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Novem Group, we've put together three relevant elements you should consider:
Risks: Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Novem Group (of which 1 is potentially serious!) you should know about.
Future Earnings: How does NVM's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the XTRA every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
7 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Exclusive-HSBC plans major global expansion of office, staff surveillance, documents show
By Stefania Spezzati and Iain Withers LONDON (Reuters) -HSBC plans to step up surveillance of staff and buildings by adding more cameras and biometric access to its premises globally, internal documents seen by Reuters show, a move that comes amid growing concerns about companies' extensive monitoring of workers. As part of its "global security strategy", the bank plans a four-fold increase in the number of cameras at its new building in the City of London, a site about half the size of its existing office in Canary Wharf, an internal presentation by the bank's protective security team dated May 2025, seen by Reuters, shows. According to the presentation, the new London building is expected to have an estimated 1,754 cameras, up from about 444 devices installed in its current global headquarters in Canary Wharf in London. It also plans to double its biometric readers to access the new building to 779 from 350. Under the plan, reported here for the first time, access to HSBC's top-tier buildings, including in Britain and the U.S., should be based on biometric verification, including full-hand recognition. Access can also be "digital", with employees expected to use their own mobile phones to badge in, the presentation document shows. HSBC, Europe's biggest bank by assets, employs more than 210,000 people globally, including more than 31,000 across the UK. Most employees are expected to use personal mobile phones with a firm-installed software on them to gain access. This has met with some resistance from staff, a person with knowledge of the policies said. As of the end of last year, most of the UK staff had yet to adhere to the biometric and digital access policy which the bank started to implement in 2022, in part because of opposition, according to the person. "The safety and security of our people is at the forefront of everything HSBC does," an HSBC representative told Reuters. "We regularly risk assess every building and dependant on the identified risk and vulnerabilities, we continue to invest in the latest cutting-edge technology to safeguard our colleagues, customers and visitors in line with industry standards," the bank added. Companies have increased surveillance of staff amid a shift to hybrid working, while advances in technology allow for more sophisticated controls. Banks in particular have stepped up monitoring to ensure the parts of their businesses that are heavily regulated comply with conduct rules. National privacy laws determine what companies can monitor. The extensive surveillance enabled by new technologies is raising concerns about risks to workers' rights and wellbeing, according to a May report by the Institute for Public Policy Research, a London-based think tank. In July, HSBC requested that senior staff globally report to the office at least four days a week, starting from October, a bank spokesperson said. Previously, the bank had no global policy on the matter, with approaches varying depending on the country, they said. As demands for office space grow again, the bank has decided to add to its planned City of London HQ, with a new smaller presence in Canary Wharf, Reuters reported. The documents seen by Reuters do not include references to the new Canary Wharf office space. The bank's security project is overseen by Diane Marchena, global head of protective security, who reports to Chief Operating Officer Suzy White, the person with knowledge of the matter said. Marchena and White declined to comment for this article. ISRAELI SURVEILLANCE TOOLS HSBC has been working with Israeli firm Octopus since at least 2024, adopting some of its tools for surveillance in the UK and Hong Kong and is planning more rollouts for monitoring, other documents outlining HSBC's global strategy seen by Reuters show. HSBC plans the deployment of Octopus tools in other countries such as India and Mexico this year, the documents, which are undated, show. Israel is one of the world's leading exporters of surveillance. Octopus says it sells its tools to buyers in 28 countries. Its technology has been reportedly used by entities, including the Israeli government to monitor some Israeli cities and a European Union-funded refugee camp on the Greek island of Samos. A representative for Octopus did not take Reuters calls seeking comment and the company did not respond to a Reuters email seeking comment. An HSBC spokesperson said the bank does not comment on vendors or suppliers. TRADING FLOORS In HSBC's new London building, the increased video surveillance will include cameras at entry and exit points of trading floors, the May 2025 presentation shows, and the use of artificial intelligence analytics. HSBC's budget for the initial rollout of the new London building surveillance was recently tripled to about $15 million, the person familiar with the matter said. According to the presentation, "theft incidents" in its Canary Wharf building "point to the need for increased CCTV capabilities on working floors," and that recent "crime data" showed an increase of incidents, including burglary, within a one-mile radius of the new office. The person familiar with the matter said that theft events on HSBC premises were mostly minor. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
7 minutes ago
- Yahoo
CoreWeave Is In a Hypergrowth Phase. How Should You Play CRWV Stock Here?
CoreWeave (CRWV) is in a hypergrowth phase, thanks to the significant demand for its artificial intelligence (AI) cloud services. The company runs a network of purpose-built data centers across the U.S. and Europe, stocked with top-tier GPUs, CPUs, high-speed networking systems, and vast storage. All of these are essential infrastructure for hyperscalers and large enterprises. Beyond hardware, CoreWeave has developed proprietary software and services, creating a full-stack platform tailored for next-generation AI applications. The solid demand for its AI infrastructure is reflected in its share price and financials. Since going public at $40 a share, CoreWeave's stock has nearly tripled. This rally shows the company's solid growth. For instance, CoreWeave's revenue for the first time has crossed the $1 billion mark as the company reported $1.21 billion in revenue, up 207% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA jumped to $753.2 million from $249.8 million a year ago, while adjusted operating income more than doubled to $199.8 million from $85.4 million. More News from Barchart Why This Cannabis Penny Stock Could Be Wall Street's Next Meme Trade Breakout Apple Stock Is Gaining Momentum, Is AAPL Stock a Buy? Peter Thiel-Backed Bullish Is About to IPO. Should You Buy BLSH Stock? Tired of missing midday reversals? The FREE Barchart Brief newsletter keeps you in the know. Sign up now! Looking ahead, management expects third-quarter revenue between $1.26 billion and $1.30 billion, slightly above Wall Street's expectations. Further, for the second consecutive quarter, it raised its 2025 revenue outlook. CRWV's management now projects $5.15 billion to $5.35 billion in revenue, up from its prior forecast of $4.9 billion to $5.1 billion. The optimism stems from significantly high customer demand, growing infrastructure capacity, and a robust backlog of orders. Despite the stellar numbers and upbeat guidance, CoreWeave's stock tumbled 20.8% on Aug. 13, immediately following the Q2 report. The market's negative reaction and a sharp drop to a solid quarter and upbeat outlook indicate caution, at least in the short term. Here's Why CRWV Stock Dropped Post Q2 While CoreWeave is firing on all cylinders and poised to deliver significant growth, the stock could remain highly volatile in the near term. A key reason is the upcoming expiration of the post-IPO lock-up period, which ends today, Aug. 14. This will allow early investors and insiders to sell shares. This move often stirs short-term volatility. Adding to the uncertainty is CoreWeave's pending acquisition of Core Scientific (CORZ). The market is expecting that the deal could lead to share dilution. At the same time, CoreWeave is rapidly expanding its infrastructure, bringing significant new capacity online. This growth push requires upfront spending before the related revenue starts flowing in, which can pressure margins in the short term. Should You Buy CoreWeave Stock Right Now? CoreWeave's long-term growth story remains compelling. It is rapidly scaling operations to meet surging demand from a diverse customer base, with plans to deliver more than 900 megawatts of active power by year-end. This expansion is supported by strong order growth and an expanding client base, positioning CoreWeave for a multiyear runway of growth. At the close of the second quarter, CoreWeave reported a contracted backlog of $30.1 billion, a $4 billion jump from the previous quarter and twice the amount recorded at the start of the year. This backlog includes a $4 billion expansion deal with OpenAI as well as new partnerships with both large enterprises and promising AI start-ups. Notably, CoreWeave has also signed expansion contracts with both of its hyperscale customers in just the past two months. Its pipeline remains strong and increasingly diverse, spanning various industries. The company is also seeing notable traction in its backbone and networking services. One of the largest AI labs is now leveraging CoreWeave's infrastructure to connect a multi-cloud inference system. With a robust product roadmap, the company plans to roll out additional cloud services and capabilities over the coming months, which will likely accelerate its growth. CoreWeave has also been diversifying its funding sources to lower its cost of capital, which augurs well for growth. Further, its strategic acquisitions, including Weights & Biases and the pending purchase of Core Scientific, are set to strengthen its infrastructure and operational efficiency, allowing it to scale faster while advancing its product offerings. Taken together, CoreWeave's purpose-built AI cloud infrastructure makes it a go-to platform for customers across the spectrum, and its long-term growth case looks solid. That said, the road ahead is unlikely to be perfectly smooth. Investors should expect some short-term volatility. Wall Street remains cautious, with analysts maintaining a 'Hold' consensus on CRWV. This implies that investors should show patience, waiting for the stock to stabilize before buying. On the date of publication, Amit Singh did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
7 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Corporación América Airports Announces Second Quarter 2025 Financial Results Call and Webcast
LUXEMBOURG, August 14, 2025--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Corporación América Airports S.A. (NYSE: CAAP), one of the leading private airport operators in the world, today announced that it will report its Second Quarter 2025 results on Wednesday, August 20, after market closes. We remind all participants to connect through the telephone in order to ask questions. Earnings ReleaseWednesday, August 20, 2025Time: After Market Closes Conference CallThursday, August 21, 2025Time: 10:00 am Eastern Time ExecutivesMr. Martín Eurnekian, Chief Executive OfficerMr. Jorge Arruda, Chief Financial OfficerMr. Patricio Iñaki Esnaola, Head of Investor Relations To participate, please dial in1-800-549-8228 (North America, Toll Free)1-289-819-1520 (Other locations)Conference ID: 15710 Webcast (click here) Recording Playback Numbers1-888-660-6264 (North America, Toll Free)1-289-819-1325 (Other locations)Playback Passcode: 15710 # About Corporación América Airports Corporación América Airports acquires, develops and operates airport concessions. Currently, the Company operates 52 airports in 6 countries across Latin America and Europe (Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, Ecuador, Armenia and Italy). In 2024, Corporación América Airports served 79.0 million passengers, 2.7% (or 0.4% excluding Natal) below the 81.1 million passengers served in 2023, and 6.2% below the 84.2 million served in 2019. The Company is listed on the New York Stock Exchange where it trades under the ticker "CAAP". For more information, visit View source version on Contacts Investor Relations Contact Patricio Iñaki EsnaolaEmail: Phone: +5411 4899-6716
