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46-year-old woman is weeks away from student loan forgiveness but stuck in Trump-era backlog

46-year-old woman is weeks away from student loan forgiveness but stuck in Trump-era backlog

CNBC12 hours ago
Under the Trump administration, more than 72,000 student loan borrowers who are likely eligible for debt forgiveness are stuck in a backlog of applications waiting for the relief.
Some of them, like 46-year-old April Osteen, owe just a single payment. Others, like Dan Carrigg of Rhode Island, have been waiting a year for the government to respond to their application.
"There are no updates," Carrigg said. "They tell you nothing."
The program experiencing the challenges is known as Public Service Loan Forgiveness Buyback.
That opportunity, first offered by the Biden administration, allows borrowers who qualify to have their debt excused under PSLF to retroactively pay the U.S. Department of Education — or "buy back" — any months they missed because they were enrolled in a forbearance or deferment. (Those are different periods during which borrowers' loan payments are on hold.)
PSLF, which President George W. Bush signed into law in 2007, allows certain not-for-profit and government employees to have their federal student loans canceled after 120 payments, or 10 years.
The Buyback program became especially popular after courts blocked the Biden-era Saving on a Valuable Education, or SAVE, plan in the summer of 2024.
Millions of student loan borrowers who signed up for SAVE were automatically enrolled in a forbearance. Those borrowers found their progress towards PSLF frozen throughout the SAVE payment pause, even as they continued to work in eligible public service.
The latest court filing shows 72,730 PSLF buyback requests were pending with the U.S. Department of Education as of the end of July. The bottleneck has only worsened since June, when 65,448 applications were under review by the Trump administration. In May, the backlog was close to 59,000.
(The Education Dept. has regularly shared the data on pending buyback requests as part of a lawsuit the American Federation of Teachers filed against it. The teacher's union alleges the agency is blocking borrowers from their rights.)
"The Biden Administration introduced the Public Service Loan Forgiveness buy-back program to allow borrowers to 'buy' eligibility into the program — weaponizing a legal discharge plan for political purposes," said Ellen Keast, deputy press secretary at the Education Department.
"The Department is working its way through this backlog while ensuring that borrowers have submitted the required 120 payments of qualifying employment," Keast said.
CNBC spoke with three of the borrowers in the buyback backlog about how the delayed loan cancellation is affecting them.
"Long delays in PSLF buyback processing must be corrected immediately so that public service workers who have provided essential local services are not deprived of the relief they've earned," said Jaylon Herbin, director of federal campaigns at the Center for Responsible Lending.
Osteen, an administrative coordinator at the University of South Carolina, submitted her buyback request in January. Nearly seven months later, she still hasn't received an answer from the Education Department.
The government has recorded that she's made 119 out of the 120 required qualifying payments for PSLF — and so she's trying to buy back just one monthly payment to get her debt cleared. Her momentum toward the relief was stalled during the SAVE issues.
"I reached out repeatedly to both my loan servicer and the Department of Education, practically begging for help," said Osteen. "At one point, I remember telling a representative, 'I just want to pay—please let me pay!'"
"How could I be one payment away from loan forgiveness, only to be told I couldn't make that final payment?" she said.
More from Personal Finance:Trump floats tariff 'rebate' for consumersStudent loan forgiveness may soon be taxed againStudent loan borrowers — how will the end of the SAVE plan impact you? Tell us
Osteen's roughly $26,000 remaining student loan balance prevents her from taking on new expenses, even for urgent repairs needed on her house in Simpsonville, South Carolina.
"I need to address issues like diseased Sycamore trees that pose a safety risk, a collapsing wooden fence and serious drainage problems in the backyard and driveway," she said.
Her monthly student loan payments of up to around $350 have made it difficult to save throughout her career. Without much in savings, she considered taking out a personal loan to pay for the work on her house. But then she thought of her education debt.
"I'm hesitant to take on a new monthly payment while I still owe student debt — debt that should have already been discharged under the PSLF program," Osteen said.
"This uncertainty continues to shape every financial decision I make."
Josh Harner, a teacher at a prison in Illinois, has been waiting for a response from the Education Department to his buyback request since early December — more than eight months ago.
His loan account shows that he's made 117 qualifying monthly PSLF payments, though he says he's worked far longer in the public sector. During his over-decade-long career, Harner has helped more than 250 people earn their GED credential, a high school diploma equivalent, he said.
And so he said it's frustrating to be waiting so long for loan forgiveness. His remaining balance is a little over $120,000.
"I check my email 10 times a day," Harner, 38, said, about his buyback request.
"I have taken every step — countless phone calls, emails, complaints," he said. "The federal government can't handle the management of all these loans."
The main reason Harner wants his debt erased, he said, is so that he can save more for his 15-year-old son's upcoming college bills, and hopefully spare him from the stresses of student loans.
"It will feel much better saving the money toward my son's education," Harner said. "I didn't want him to have to worry about how to pay for college or getting into debt to do it."
Carrigg, an associate teaching professor at the University of Rhode Island, submitted his buyback request a year ago, in Aug. 2024. He's listed as having made 108 out of the 120 qualifying payments.
"I have considerably more than 10 years [of] certified employment," said Carrigg, 41.
Carrigg has contacted his local lawmakers and his state attorney general about the issue, but has had no success. "I still call Federal Student Aid every week or two," he said. "I don't know what else to do."
He has been unable to get his remaining roughly $15,000 student debt excused.
"I am trying to pay Uncle Sam and taxpayers a lump sum of money to complete and finish off my loan, but I cannot get FSA [Federal Student Aid] to provide me with the offer letter that states how much I should make the check out for."
"And without that, I cannot pay them," he said. "It is maddening."
Throughout his life, Carrigg said, he's needed to make a number of sacrifices because of his student debt.
He's taken on a second teaching job at night, and forgoes many discretionary purchases.
"We don't take vacations every year," he said.
With his student debt forgiven, he and his wife would be able to direct more money toward their mortgage with the goal of no longer having a housing payment in their later decades.
"We're not so young anymore," Carrigg said.
"And we can start saving a bit more for retirement, which is now coming up faster and faster," he said. "We're getting closer to Medicare age than student loan age."
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Goodwin Insiders Added UK£433.5k Of Stock To Their Holdings
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  • Yahoo

Goodwin Insiders Added UK£433.5k Of Stock To Their Holdings

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Trump-Putin meeting recap: No deal reached at Russia-Ukraine war summit in Alaska; leaders praise 'extremely productive' talks
Trump-Putin meeting recap: No deal reached at Russia-Ukraine war summit in Alaska; leaders praise 'extremely productive' talks

Yahoo

time27 minutes ago

  • Yahoo

Trump-Putin meeting recap: No deal reached at Russia-Ukraine war summit in Alaska; leaders praise 'extremely productive' talks

Trump and Putin met Friday for the summit at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage. President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin both said that significant progress was made toward an agreement for a potential ceasefire in the war in Ukraine, but that a final deal had not yet been reached during their high-stakes summit in Anchorage, Alaska, on Friday. Trump said the talks were 'extremely productive' but added that 'there's no deal until there's a deal' during a joint press conference following nearly three hours of closed-door conversations between the two leaders. Details on what was agreed to and what issues have yet to be resolved were not shared. Trump and Putin met at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, where they shook hands and posed for photographs on the tarmac before beginning their sit-down away from the press. It was the first face-to-face meeting between Trump and Putin since 2019, and Putin's first with a U.S. president since his forces invaded Ukraine in 2022. The Russian leader had spoken on the phone with Trump since his reelection, but they had not yet met in person during the president's second term. Trump has been trying for months to secure a deal to end the war, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was not invited to Friday's summit, and expectations that a ceasefire agreement can be reached are low. 'This is really a feel-out meeting,' Trump told reporters earlier this week. 'Probably in the first two minutes I'll know exactly whether or not a deal can be made.' The president also promised 'very severe consequences' if Putin doesn't agree to end the three-and-a-half-year conflict, which has caused a staggering number of casualties on both sides. There were fresh attacks in the war overnight. Russia launched dozens of drone strikes across Ukraine, killing seven civilians and injuring 17 others, Ukrainian military officials said. Yahoo News' live coverage has ended. Read more information in the blog below. Russian President Vladimir Putin was seen heading into his plane less than an hour after his joint press conference with President Trump. As he entered the door, he turned around to give a wave and subtle bow. Putin and his delegation had been scheduled to meet with Trump and other U.S. officials for a luncheon before leaving Alaska, but that gathering was canceled. Not only was Russian President Vladimir Putin full of praise for President Trump after their meeting Friday in Alaska, but he also went out of his way to echo Trump in blaming former President Joe Biden for the war in Ukraine. Describing Trump's personal involvement in negotiations as "precious," Putin predicted that it would ultimately help solve "the Ukrainian issue" and "help us bring back businesslike and pragmatic relations between Russia and the U.S." Then he strategically pivoted to Trump's predecessor — and referenced a claim the president has often made about the latest phase of the war in Ukraine, which began when Putin invaded in 2022. "In 2022, during the last contact with the previous administration, I tried to convince my previous American colleague that the situation should not be brought to the point of no return when it would come to hostilities," Putin said through a translator. "That [would be] a big mistake." So "today, when President Trump is saying that if he was the president back then there will be no war, I'm quite sure that it would indeed be so," Putin added. "I can confirm that." In 2022, Jeffrey Treistman, an assistant professor of national security at the University of New Haven, argued otherwise in The Hill, claiming that "Trump has a clear track record of undermining Ukraine's sovereignty and security." Trump "would not have stopped Russia's recent invasion of Ukraine" because his "foreign policies actually served to embolden Putin and weaken the trans-Atlantic alliance," Treistman contended. After meeting for nearly three hours with Russian President Vladimir Putin, President Trump emerged from behind closed doors Friday at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska, saying negotiations had been "extremely productive" — while also acknowledging that no comprehensive ceasefire agreement had been reached. "We haven't quite got there, but we've got some headway," Trump said. "There's no deal until there's a deal." The president went on to note that "many points were agreed to," while "just a few ... were left" unresolved — "one" of which, he added, is "more significant" than the others. Earlier in the day, Trump said he wanted to "see a ceasefire, rapidly." "I don't know if it's going to be today, but I'm not going to be happy if it's not today," he warned. During his joint press conference Friday with Putin, however, Trump signaled that negotiations would continue in the near future, saying that he would "call" NATO and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky because it was "ultimately up to them to agree with" the parameters of what his team and Putin's team had discussed. "We didn't get there, but we have a very good chance of getting there," Trump said. Then he addressed Putin directly, as "Vladimir." "We'll speak to you very soon — and probably see you again very soon." "Next time in Moscow," Putin interjected, drawing a chuckle from Trump. "I'll get heat for that," Trump replied. "I can see that possibly happening." As the world waits for President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin to emerge from behind closed doors and comment on today's nearly three-hour meeting, Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska says the benchmark for Trump should be securing a clear-cut ceasefire commitment from Putin. "I think that the best that we could hope for is a commitment coming out of Putin to a ceasefire with enough contours to it that it is believable — that it will be more than just a brief moment to check a box here," Murkowski told CNN. Earlier, David Sanger of the New York Times said that "if there isn't a cease fire with a date certain, and a specific length, it's going to be very hard for the president to spin that he got much progress here." Trump supporters were seen congregating outside Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson to show their support for the president during the summit. Negotiations with the American delegation in the "narrow format" have concluded, the Kremlin said in a short statement. This presumably refers to the closed-door three-on-three meeting between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin that had been going on for nearly three hours. Aides have just checked the microphones at the podiums where Trump and Putin are expected to address reporters for a joint press conference. The Kremlin said this press conference will start soon. Trump and Putin were originally supposed to speak to the media after a working bilateral lunch meeting between the larger U.S. and Russian delegations. It is unclear whether that larger meeting will take place. Friday's meeting between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin has been a red carpet affair — a polished production orchestrated at least in part by Trump himself, who spent years co-producing and starring in his own reality television show (NBC's The Apprentice). Alaska's Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy posted a video to social media Friday in which he described a conversation he had with the president on Air Force One before Trump's meeting with Putin. In addition to mentioning that Trump said he 'loves Alaska,' Dunleavy addressed rumors suggesting that granting Russia access to the state's bountiful natural resources could be a bargaining chip to help convince Putin to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine. 'We talked to the president about these rumors that Alaska's minerals are going to be sold off to the Russians or that Alaska's gas is going to be transported by the Russians. … That's not true,' Dunleavy said in the video. 'Some would say that's fake news.' The British newspaper the Telegraph reported earlier this week, citing unnamed sources, that Trump would consider 'opening up Alaska's natural resources to Moscow.' A high-ranking Russian lawmaker added more fuel to the claim by commenting that it 'would be interesting' for companies from his country to be granted the right '​​to work on the lands of Alaska.' Trump didn't rule anything out when he was asked directly whether Alaska's resources might be part of a potential deal with Russia on Thursday, saying only, 'We're going to see what happens.' The scheduled working lunch with more parties has not started yet, Dan Scavino, the White House Deputy Chief of Staff, said on X. This means the meeting between Trump, Putin and their chosen aides has lasted almost two hours so far. The White House did not issue a strict schedule for today's summit, but some have speculated the timing could be a sign that Trump has not felt obligated to "walk," as he told Fox News host Bret Baier he would do if he was not happy with how the conversation was going. A lot of phone calls between Trump and Putin this year have lasted up to 90 minutes, CNN reported. There are also two translators who are in the room facilitating the conversation. During his 2024 reelection campaign, Donald Trump repeatedly said he would end the war between Russia and Ukraine within 24 hours of returning to the Oval Office — or sooner. Actually, repeatedly is an understatement. According to CNN, Trump predicted he would resolve the conflict by Day One of his second term at least 53 times. 'Before I even arrive at the Oval Office, I will have the disastrous war between Russia and Ukraine settled,' Trump said in Maryland on March 4, 2023, for example. 'I will get the problem solved and I will get it solved in rapid order and it will take me no longer than one day. I know exactly what to say to each of them.' Given that today is Day 208 of Trump's second term and the war still isn't over, critics have accused Trump of breaking his promise. In response, the president has claimed that he 'said that figuratively… as an exaggeration… to make a point.' The important part, he added, was that he said the war 'will be ended.' Today's 'high stakes' meeting with Putin in Alaska proves how much striking a peace deal matters to Trump — in part because he spent much of 2023 and 2024 vowing to do it. The path to peace in Ukraine is the most pressing issue for Trump and Putin's summit, but it's not the only critical subject that the two leaders are expected to discuss. The last remaining arms control agreement between the world's two nuclear superpowers is set to expire at the beginning of next year and both leaders have expressed optimism that a new pact can be reached during their meeting in Alaska. The U.S. and Russia have by far the largest nuclear arsenals in the world, together controlling 90% of the world's nuclear weapons. The two nations have been working under some form of nuclear arms control deal since 1972. The current agreement, known as the New START treaty, limits the number of warheads each country can keep on alert at any given time. That deal expires in February and cannot be extended. If a new agreement isn't reached before then, the U.S. and Russia will be operating without a mutual nuclear agreement for the first time in more than half a century. On Thursday, Putin suggested that the summit could create 'the long-term conditions of peace between our countries … and in the world as a whole, if we reach agreements in the field of strategic offensive arms control,' while speaking with top Russian officials in Moscow. Trump expressed similar sentiments last month, telling reporters, 'That's not an agreement you want expiring. We're starting to work on that.' Neither leader has offered details of what might be included in a new nuclear agreement or how a future deal might differ from the one currently in place. As Trump and Putin continue their meeting, here's a recap of what's already happened so far today: The summit turned into a three-on-three meeting. It was initially planned for Trump and Putin to meet alone, but they both now have two advisers sitting with them. Trump has U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, while Putin has Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who was not invited to the meeting, said in a social media post that Ukraine is "counting on America," although Trump told reporters this morning, "I'm not here to negotiate for Ukraine." Trump has suggested that, if his conversation with Putin is successful, he could set up another meeting with Putin and Zelensky. Trump said he "would walk" if the conversation doesn't go well. He told Fox News host Bret Baier on Air Force One that he will "head back home real fast" if everything doesn't "work out very well." President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin have been meeting for an hour behind closed doors at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska. U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are sitting alongside Trump. Putin is flanked by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and foreign policy advisor Yuri Ushakov. The only other people in the room are translators. For the duration of this sit-down, there will be no reports about what Trump and Putin are saying to each other. Once they are done, broader "talks within the delegations, possibly in the form of a working lunch" are likely to follow, according to Kremlin spokesman Dmitr Peskov. "After that, the heads of state will withdraw for some time" to consult with their advisors "and then come together for a joint press conference." All told, the process could last for six or seven hours, according to Peskov, meaning it might wrap up around 9 or 10 p.m. ET. Or not. Trump has previously said that while he thinks the summit is "going to work out very well ... if it doesn't, I'm going to head back home real fast.' Alternately, the president also said Thursday that if he and Putin make real progress, he might remain in Alaska and ask President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine to fly in, which he said 'would be by far the easiest way' to mediate. Either way, Trump plans to sit for an interview with Sean Hannity of Fox News Friday night. He is scheduled to depart Alaska for Washington, D.C., before midnight local time. While Trump meets with Putin, his team sent out a fundraising email, according to screenshots an Associated Press reporter shared on X. "I'm meeting with Putin in Alaska! It's a little chilly," the email says. "THIS MEETING IS VERY HIGH STAKES for the world." The email encouraged people to donate, adding, "No one in the world knows how to make deals like me!" President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin did not answer questions from reporters while posing earlier today for a red carpet photo op at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska. But that didn't stop the press from asking — or rather, shouting — their questions anyway. And in one instance, it didn't stop Putin from gesturing in response. 'President Putin, will you agree to a ceasefire?' 'Mr. President, what's your message to Vladimir Putin?' 'Mr. Putin, did you underestimate Ukraine?' None of these queries provoked any real reaction from the two leaders, other than a few words to each other and a handshake for the cameras. But then someone asked Putin if he would 'stop killing civilians.' At that, Putin grimaced, pointed to his ear — as if to suggest that he couldn't hear — and shrugged. Trump and Putin then exchanged a few more words, smiled and stepped into the presidential limo. 'President Putin, how can the U.S. trust your word?' a reporter shouted as Trump ushered Putin away. The U.S. president raised his hand, as if to wave goodbye or signal 'that's enough' — and an aide said, 'Thank you, press.' Putin was again asked about "killing civilians" during a second photo op with additional U.S. and Russian officials, and he again reacted — this time by narrowing his eyes skeptically, cupping his hands around his mouth and addressing the reporter directly (though inaudibly to the microphones). The two leaders arrived at the building at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, where they plan to meet and hold their news conference later tonight. The fact that Trump and Putin rode together — without top aides and officials — in the U.S. presidential limo from the tarmac to the site of today's summit is significant. Why? Because it's so unusual. When Trump wanted North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un — another U.S. adversary — to join him in his car during their meeting in Singapore in 2018, advisers talked him out of it. Today's meeting with Putin was expanded from a one-on-one to a three-on-three at the last minute. But Trump and Putin still made sure to get some alone time beforehand — even if they had to carve it out during a brief car ride. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Putin's foreign affairs adviser Yuri Ushakov will be joining Putin in his conversation with Trump, RIA Novosti, a Russian state news agency, said, according to the Associated Press. RIA Novosti got the names from Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. Putin, Lavrov and Ushakov will meet with Trump, Marco Rubio and Steve Witkoff soon. President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin emerged from their respective planes and proceeded down an L-shaped red carpet at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska, before meeting for a handshake. At 11:07 a.m. local time, Trump deplaned first from Air Force One. Putin followed seconds later. Trump waited for Putin to approach him for the handshake; he briefly applauded as Putin got closer. The two exchanged words for several seconds before walking together toward reporters and posing for a side-by-side photo op while American fighter jets flew overhead. The two leaders then entered the U.S. presidential limo (nicknamed "The Beast") to ride together to today's summit. Russian President Vladimir Putin has landed in Anchorage, Alaska. Air Force One touched down about 30 minutes ago at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, the military base in Anchorage where President Trump will meet with Putin this afternoon. Trump has been greeting Alaska lawmakers on board as he awaits Putin's arrival.

US will dodge recession, but Trump's policies will slow economic growth: Report
US will dodge recession, but Trump's policies will slow economic growth: Report

USA Today

time28 minutes ago

  • USA Today

US will dodge recession, but Trump's policies will slow economic growth: Report

President Donald Trump's aggressive economic policies will likely significantly slow U.S. growth and push up inflation but stop short of causing a recession or 'stagflation' – the dire scenarios that forecasters envisioned before he took office, a report says. 'The totality of the policies does not push the economy to the brink of recession but it significantly diminishes growth' during Trump's four-year term, said economist Justin Begley of Moody's Analytics. He added, 'It's not yet stagflation but it's edging that way.' Stagflation is an economy characterized by high inflation, slow or stagnant growth and high unemployment – an unusual and toxic cocktail. Typically, a sluggish economy leads to low inflation, allowing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to stimulate more borrowing and activity. Will the Fed lower rates in September? The Fed, however, faces a dilemma because lowering rates to bolster a softening labor market could further drive up inflation. Consumer price increases generally have eased substantially after a pandemic-related spike but recently edged higher, in part because of Trump's sweeping import levies. His policies are imposing countervailing forces on the economy. Tax cuts and increased spending on border security and defense are set to juice growth. But those positive catalysts are expected to be more than offset by the tariffs, a historic immigration crackdown, layoffs of hundreds of thousands of federal workers and big cuts to social services programs such as Medicaid and food stamps, Begley said. During Trump's presidential race against former Vice President Kamala Harris last year, Moody's, among other research firms, predicted Trump's economic blueprint would spark a recession by mid-2025. Moody's has updated its forecast in part because the contours of his plan recently have become more clearly defined, Begley said. 'We have a better view where things are going,' he said. What tariffs has Trump imposed? For example, high double-digit tariffs are in place for steel and aluminum, foreign cars and Chinese imports. And the White House has reached deals with trading partners such as Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and the UK that set tariffs at 10% to 20%. Trump's deportations and constraints on Southern border crossings are well under way. And his huge budget bill, which he signed into law on July 4, expanded his 2017 tax cuts, beefed up military and border security outlays, and slashed some entitlement spending. How is the economy doing under Trump? All told, Moody's projects Trump's policies will reduce economic growth by an average 0.4 percentage points annually – nearly half a point – during his term. That would leave the economy expanding an average 1.7% annually over the four years, with growth bottoming at 1.4% next year and peaking at 2.2% in 2028. The economy grew at an annual rate of 1.2% the first half of 2025. It's projected to grow at slightly less than a 1% pace in the second half, according to economists surveyed by Wolters Kluwer Blue Chip Economic Indicators. By contrast, the economy averaged 2.3% growth the decade after the Great Recession of 2007-2009 and 3.5% during former president Joe Biden's term. The latter, however, included unusually strong gains as the nation emerged from the pandemic recession. In 2024, Biden's last year in office, the economy grew a healthy 2.8%. Growth had been expected to downshift no matter who won the 2024 election as a post-COVID-19 surge in consumer demand petered out, Americans depleted government pandemic aid and other government stimulus measures faded. But by the end of Trump's term in 2028, the economy will be 1.3% smaller than if his policies had not been enacted, Begley wrote in a report. Also, the unemployment rate is expected to peak at 4.7% in 2027 before falling to 4.4% by the time Trump leaves office. Without his policies, unemployment would broadly hold steady at about 4% and there would be about 885,000 additional jobs, Moody's said. Is inflation ever going to go down? Trump's policies similarly are poised to push up inflation by an average of nearly half a percentage point a year. That would leave annual inflation averaging 2.6% during Trump's term and peaking at 3.1% in 2026, based on the Commerce Department's personal consumption expenditures price index. Inflation then would decline and nearly reach the Fed's 2% goal in 2028, the last year of his term. Absent the president's policies, inflation would achieve the Fed's target next year, Begley's analysis shows. Are tariffs contributing to inflation? Tariffs, by far, represent both the biggest drag on growth and the largest contributor to inflation, Begley said. Companies are expected to pass most of the costs of the duties to consumers, driving up prices. And that's expected to sap their buying power and reduce consumption, which makes up 70% of economic activity. Without the tariffs, the net effects of Trump's policies on growth would be slightly positive, Begley said. The benefits of tax cuts and increased defense and border spending would outweigh the toll taken by the immigration crackdown, federal layoffs and cutbacks to Medicaid and food stamps, he said. What are the negative effects of deportations? Another big hit comes from the deportations. Like the tariffs, the immigration crackdown is projected to both curtail growth and boost inflation. A reduced supply of workers in industries such as construction, agriculture and hospitality is expected to drive up wages and prices. And a smaller population of immigrants means less consumer spending. Here's why Moody's forecast of the effects of Trump's policies is less dire than it was before he took office: Less retaliation from tariffs Although Trump's tariffs are higher than anticipated, Moody's expected more significant retaliation from foreign countries that would batter U.S. manufacturers' exports. At least so far, those nations have taken a more restrained approach. Fewer deportations than expected Moody's figured the Trump administration would seek to deport about 1 million immigrants who lack permanent legal status each year. But Begley said that has proven logistically challenging. Goldman Sachs estimates monthly deportations have averaged an annualized pace of about 600,000. Tax cuts give middle-class Americans more spending money Although Trump vowed during his campaign to eliminate taxes on tips and overtime, Moody's didn't necessarily expect him to follow through. The budget bill, however, scraps taxes on tips up to $25,000 a year and over time up to $12,500.

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