Miner Freeport-McMoRan will benefit from Trump's copper tariffs, says Morgan Stanley

CNBC

11 hours ago

Freeport-McMoRan might be positioned for meaningful gains thanks to President Donald Trump's copper tariffs, according to Morgan Stanley. The bank upgraded the mining stock to overweight from equal weight but cut its price target to $48 from $54. That updated target implies more than 14% upside from Friday's close. In late July, Trump signed an order that imposed a universal 50% tariff on copper imports , a move that should benefit Freeport-McMoRan, analyst Carlos De Alba said. That's because most of the company's North American sales are copper rod, and the U.S. is a net importer of that metal, he said. "We believe the market is not appreciating the benefits that will accrue to FCX from S232 copper tariffs," the analyst wrote in a Monday note. "We expect that FCX will be able to raise pricing in its annual copper rod contracts for 2026, which account for the majority of the company's North America sales volumes." Seeing that the U.S. is a net importer, De Alba said that Freeport-McMoRan will have the ability to increase prices for copper rod in the country. He predicted that the company will raise the all-in price of copper rod by 40% from the first quarter of 2026 to the fourth quarter of 2028. The analyst also thinks that the recent reaction in the stock price is "overdone," adding that the company will "still benefit from hefty 50% tariffs on a majority of its U.S. volumes." FCX 1M mountain FCX, 1-month Shares initially rose on July 30, the day the Trump administration announced the copper tariffs but then rolled over when the Trump administration clarified that the tariffs don't apply to "copper input materials" such as ores. The stock ultimately closed more than 9% lower in that session. It has still risen more than 11% in the past six months, outpacing the S & P 500's rise of more than 5% in that period. The stock was nearly 2% higher in the premarket following the upgrade.