The recalibration of the majority: it's not the size that matters
Those with 20% and above will have the power to influence the cadence of coalition arrangements, empowering them to shape the future of South Africa's political landscape. The era of one dominant political party is fast becoming history.
Unless there are drastic institutional changes in the ANC, which has been the historical dominant majority party for the past 30 years, the projections of it polling below 40% overall in the 2026 local government elections and below 30% in the national and provincial elections are not far-fetched. Yet for that not to happen, something else must come first: recognition that the glory days of the past three decades can only be resurrected by its commitment to be a party of South Africans, not its members.
Consolidating a multiparty democratic order with diffuse nodes of influence would require political parties to raise a personality to hold these nodes together. It is no secret that the GNU, at its establishment and arguably to date, is held together by a consensus on President Cyril Ramaphosa as the personality around whom everyone wants to pivot. The fragility of the GNU is centred on the tolerance, accommodation and acceptance of Ramaphosa's unique consensus-seeking leadership style.
The current coalition arrangements are based on the consensus of a nonracial establishment deep in the endeavour to create political stability that does not disrupt the post-1996 status quo or constitutional order. Political parties in parliament and wannabes outside the system will henceforth be beholden to the personalities they proffer as a leadership value proposition to the nation.
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