Amid tariff uncertainty, US grid battery industry faces an uphill climb

Yahoo

13-05-2025

Companies making and deploying lithium-ion batteries in the U.S. recently gathered in Washington, D.C., to ask the federal government for the policy support they say they need. Their request came alongside a big promise: to cumulatively spend $100 billion by 2030 to build a self-sufficient, all-American grid battery industry.
'Within five years, and with $100 billion in investment, we can satisfy 100% of U.S. demand for battery storage,' said Jason Grumet, CEO of the American Clean Power Association, a trade group.
'This is unquestionably an ambitious commitment, but it is absolutely achievable if the private and public sectors work together,' he said. The $100 billion promise represents a major increase in the $10 billion to $15 billion that the American Clean Power Association estimates was invested in U.S. grid battery manufacturing and deployment last year.
As recently as a few months ago, industry analysts largely agreed that a domestic ramp-up on the scale of what Grumet proposes was at least possible, if not inevitable. Lucrative federal tax credits for companies that build and deploy clean energy technology within the nation's borders have helped close the price gap between U.S.-made batteries and those made in China, the world's main supplier of lithium-ion battery modules, cells, and materials.
These tax incentives, created by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, have also helped bolster the economics of installing large-scale batteries alongside solar power. Solar and batteries are by far the fastest-to-deploy option for utilities seeking to meet rising electricity demand from data centers, factories, electric vehicles, and broader economic growth. The two energy sources have dominated new additions to the U.S. grid in recent years.
But that's changing under the Trump administration.
Republicans in Congress may kill the Biden-era tax credits that make domestic battery manufacturing possible. The Department of Energy Loan Programs Office, which has lent huge sums to battery manufacturers like Eos and Kore Power, could soon be shuttered or radically scaled back. And President Donald Trump's aggressive and ever-shifting tariffs are making it more expensive for manufacturers to produce batteries in the U.S., since the duties raise the costs of everything from cells imported from China to general-purpose materials like steel and aluminum.
On Monday, China and the U.S. announced they'd temporarily ease tariffs on one another, but the situation has not been permanently resolved and leaves tariffs on Chinese imports at 30%. Manufacturers and developers still lack clarity about what the underlying economics of their business will look like months from today.
As Grumet conceded in a briefing with reporters before the American Clean Power Association's D.C. media event in April, 'there is a remarkable tension right now between probably the best fundamentals for investment in the energy sector that we've seen in a generation and the greatest amount of uncertainty that we've seen in a generation.'
When it comes to plugging batteries into the U.S. power grid, tariffs are the most immediate threat by far. The impacts are already showing up in sagging forecasts and postponed projects.
In February, the U.S. Energy Information Administration predicted the country would deploy more than 18 gigawatts of batteries in 2025, up from 11 gigawatts in 2024, continuing what's been a meteoric increase over the past several years. But the forecast for 2025 grid battery additions has fallen in recent months, at least according to the latest analysis from the American Clean Power Association and consultancy Wood Mackenzie, which is tucked into the end of the clean energy industry group's fact sheet for its $100 billion-by-2030 investment pledge. They predict that a little over 13 GW of energy storage will be plugged into the nation's grid this year.
Several factors play into that drop-off, but the primary one is that nearly 70% of lithium-ion batteries in the U.S. came from China last year — and that tariffs on Chinese lithium-ion batteries and components had spiked to 156% as of last month, according to BloombergNEF.
Monday's news that the U.S. and China had agreed to a 90-day pause on their dueling tariffs means that the blanket 145% tariffs that the Trump administration had imposed on China in April will fall to 30% as of Wednesday — at least if the deal holds.
Now, once again, energy storage companies will be recalibrating the economics of their projects, almost all of which currently rely on battery materials or components from China.
'For the next five to seven years, there is no cost-effective, time-critical alternative to battery storage to meet domestic electricity demand,' said David Fernandes, chief financial officer of OnEnergy, a grid storage and microgrid developer with 120 megawatt-hours of projects in operation and 3 gigawatt-hours in development across the U.S. and Latin America. 'That means cells from China.'
Tariffs on Chinese imports simply mean the batteries that the U.S. grid needs 'will just be more expensive,' he said, which will in turn drive up electricity prices.
Regardless of where tariffs settle, they have already disrupted some grid storage projects.
Take Fluence, a major U.S.-based energy storage provider that's made more than $700 million in commitments to manufacture battery cells and modules in the U.S. to date, according to John Zahurancik, Fluence's president of the Americas. In its second-quarter earnings call last week, the company reported a significant downward revision in its 2025 revenue forecasts, driven by decisions to 'pause U.S. projects under existing contracts' and 'defer entry into pending contracts until there exists better visibility and certainty on the tariff environment.'
More delays are on their way, according to Ravi Manghani, senior director of strategic sourcing at Anza Renewables, a data analytics firm focused on solar and energy storage. Of the batteries bound for grid storage deployments in the U.S. in 2025, roughly half are 'at risk of getting delayed or renegotiated to make the economics work in 2026 and beyond,' he said.
Some larger-scale projects scheduled to come online this year have likely already brought their batteries into the country, escaping the tariff premium, Manghani said. But many that are procuring batteries now for delivery from late 2025 to early 2026 'are indefinitely postponed until we get more clarity around where the tariffs end up, and what happens to non-Chinese manufacturing at large,' he said.
Projects that are being built as part of state-regulated utilities' broader generation and grid plans may be able to absorb cost increases, he said. But 'merchant projects' that are operated by independent power producers in competitive energy markets are 'still figuring out if they can pencil out,' he said.
In a Monday email, Manghani updated his view based on the latest news of a U.S.-China trade rapprochement.
'We will have to see if suppliers can actually ship out within this 90-day window,' he wrote. The determination of which countries end up having the most affordable battery components in the long run 'will depend not only on which countries have tariffs, but where the tariff percentages exactly land.' Trump's seesawing on tariffs 'just adds another layer of complexity for long-term investments,' Manghani added.
Those dynamics could crimp the rapid pace of development in the competitive energy market of Texas, the country's grid energy storage leader.
Stephanie Smith, chief operating officer at grid battery developer Eolian, said during the American Clean Power Association's April briefing that Texas has been well-served by its fleet of grid batteries, which have helped the state ride through summer heat waves while avoiding grid emergencies that have plagued it in the past.
But it's going to be harder for Texas, and the rest of the country, to keep rapidly installing grid batteries in the face of rising prices for Chinese batteries. Eolian is scrambling to 'source as much outside of China as possible right now' to deal with the tariffs, Smith said. But 'obviously, there are some limitations on that.'
Despite the uncertainty and rising prices, utilities and grid operators desperate to meet rising electricity demand have little choice but to build more batteries, said Gary Dorris, CEO and cofounder of clean energy-focused consultancy Ascend Analytics. That's because the alternative — new gas-fired power plants — takes much, much longer to build.
Manufacturers of the turbines used in gas power plants are reporting up to four-year wait times for customers seeking to build power plants not already in the works, Dorris told Canary Media in an email. Solar panels and batteries, by contrast, can be ordered, shipped, and deployed in less than a year.
While the specifics of Trump's tariffs matter — there is, after all, an enormous difference between 156% and 30% tariffs on China — at this point the hardest thing for manufacturers is 'the confusion surrounding' trade policy, Dorris said.
Firms are asking, 'What are the goals? Will they stay in place? How will other countries react?' he said. 'This has created a lot of uncertainty, which suppresses appetite for making large, irreversible capital investment decisions.'
This unpredictability, paired with the immediate price hikes on imported materials and equipment needed to build and expand factories, has hurt the U.S. manufacturers that the Trump administration's tariffs are ostensibly meant to help. These impacts are particularly dangerous for the still-nascent U.S. battery manufacturing sector.
The American Clean Power Association is tracking 25 major projects to build or expand grid-scale energy storage factories in the U.S., of which 11 are in operation or under construction. Much of this manufacturing capacity is for battery modules, meaning it continues to rely on Chinese battery cells and materials.
'The domestic supply chain is unfortunately going to be at the receiving end of the tariff,' Manghani said. 'A lot of the raw materials that would go into domestic batteries, as well as the manufacturing equipment you need to build these cell factories, are still slated to come from China. We don't have a lot of alternatives yet.'
That dependence on Chinese-made cells underscores just how vulnerable today's battery-manufacturing industry is to tariffs, Grumet said. Some domestic facilities are also starting to make those cells and refine and manufacture battery materials.
Those include the facilities that Fluence has invested in that are making battery modules, cells, and associated equipment in Utah and Tennessee. It also includes Tesla's expanding cell-manufacturing capacity from its factories in Nevada and Texas, and its lithium-refining facility in Texas.
Speaking at the American Clean Power Association's D.C. event, Michael Snyder, Tesla's vice president of energy and charging, highlighted the EV and grid battery manufacturer's advances in lithium iron phosphate cells. These cells are safer and easier to source materials for than nickel manganese cobalt cells and have become the favored technology for EV batteries and grid batteries alike. Today, Chinese companies make 99% of the world's lithium iron phosphate cells, according to Benchmark.
'We think we're going to be the first non-Chinese company making these cells at scale, and we know there are a lot of other companies working on that as well,' Snyder said. South Korea-based LG Energy Solution in February announced plans to invest $1.4 billion in U.S. lithium iron phosphate cell production for grid storage, which will take place at the firm's existing factory in Holland, Michigan.
But those efforts are in their early stages, and they'll only succeed if they have customers to buy their products — a prospect made less certain by the chill settling in over grid battery deployment.
The Trump administration's hostility to Biden-era climate policy and its broad support for fossil fuels is undermining investor confidence in the continued growth of U.S. grid battery markets, with consequences for the domestic manufacturing projects that would aim to supply them. The first three months of 2025 saw cancellations of billions of dollars in planned battery cell-manufacturing investment from Freyr Battery (now T1 Energy) in Georgia and Kore Power in Arizona.
But the bigger threat to U.S. clean energy deployment and manufacturing is the possibility that Republicans in Congress will undo the tax credits created by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act to benefit companies that build and deploy lithium-ion batteries and many other clean energy technologies.
Republicans in Congress have pledged to extend tax cuts passed during the first Trump administration that will add trillions of dollars to the federal deficit, and they are hunting for federal spending cuts to make that possible. The estimated $780 billion in clean-energy tax credits is a tempting target. Some Republicans are arguing to keep the tax credits that undergird major investments in factories and power projects in their districts, while others have called for eliminating them completely.
These incentives currently boost the economics for grid battery projects with a 30% base credit on the cost of the up-front investment, but developers can get more if the projects obtain a certain amount of materials from domestic suppliers or if they are built in 'energy communities' that face losses in jobs and economic activity due to closures of fossil fuel infrastructure. The tax credits have accelerated storage deployments — and boosted demand for batteries from U.S. manufacturers.
But for battery manufacturers, the most vital piece of policy is the 45X Advanced Manufacturing Production tax credit. That credit is tied to every unit of battery module, cell, component, and material produced domestically, at a level designed to make them cost-competitive with Chinese products.
45X has been the primary spur for investors committing hundreds of billions of dollars to U.S. clean technology manufacturing. It's hard to see how those investors could keep their commitments if that support went away — and harder still to see how any new factories will be planned now, while the fate of that incentive is up in the air.