Festive demand, monsoon could lift markets in H2FY25: Shriram Wealth CEO
Shriram Wealth
, shares his insights on the current
market consolidation
phase and what could drive the next leg of growth.
He believes that
festive demand
recovery, a favourable monsoon, and positive earnings momentum could act as key catalysts for
Indian equities
in the second half of FY25.
Satija also highlights the growing strength in
rural consumption
, FMCG, infrastructure, and pharma sectors, while cautioning investors about stretched valuations in defence stocks.
In this conversation, he discusses market trends, sectoral opportunities,
FII flows
, and SEBI's regulatory measures aimed at protecting retail investors. Edited Excerpts –
Q) Thanks for taking the time out. Markets are struggling in the first month of 2H2025. What is limiting the upside?
by Taboola
by Taboola
Sponsored Links
Sponsored Links
Promoted Links
Promoted Links
You May Like
Cargo Ship Meets Pirates - Watch What the Captain Does Next!
Tips and Tricks
A) Generally, the first quarter remains a cyclically weak quarter for many sectors. Banking activity also remains muted given moderate industrial uptake, employee transfers, etc.
The market seems to have factored in most of the domestic as well as global developments, hence it is undergoing time correction and looking for new triggers.
Upcoming events such as US-India trade deal agreement, healthy festive led consumption recovery, above average monsoon and positive earnings could be new drivers for the market in coming quarters.
Live Events
Q) The June quarter season has just begun – how do you see India Inc. faring in this quarter? Which sectors should investors watch out for?
A) Healthy rural demand and recovery in urban consumption led optimism in
FMCG sector
could be a theme to watch out for this earnings season. Additionally, agri-related sectors such as fertilizers, crop-protection businesses and tractor OEMs could be the ones to watch out.
Q) Everyone says it is a stock pickers market now and the day of making easy money is over. What are your views?
A) In the last 5 years, post the Covid led correction, the Nifty 50 TR and the broader Nifty 500 TR have yielded investors 21.3% and 24% returns respectively. Multiple sectors and companies are trading at premiums to respective long-term averages.
There are several external factors such as demand challenges in domestic as well as offshore markets, dumping of goods by China, geopolitical uncertainty led supply chain and logistical issues which can adversely impact some sectors.
Investors should look for selective ideas from a medium-term investment horizon and any correction can be utilized by investors to further add to their portfolios.
Q) SIP crossed Rs 27000 cr for the first time in June. What is boosting the momentum?
A) The adoption of mutual fund investments in India has seen an accelerated adoption, especially in B30 (beyond top 30) cities, supported by financialisation of savings, growing awareness through investor education, rising digital penetration, and the growing reach of financial service providers.
The share of new SIP registrations from B30 cities has increased to 56% in FY25.
Q) FIIs are still not back in India completely – is it valuations or earnings which are proving to be headwinds?
A) Though FII flows may not be fully back, they have improved in the last three months ($1.3bn, $1.7bn, $2.4bn respectively in Apr-25, May-25 & Jun-25).
Despite the recent rally which has taken the index to a premium (~5%) over its long-term average in terms of P/E valuation, the Nifty 50's single digit returns over the past six months remains tepid relative to some of other emerging market's double-digit returns.
Various factors such as key Govt. initiatives, frontloading of RBI rate cut cycle, under-control inflation, pick-up in Govt. capex spendings and aspirations to become the third largest economy, all cumulatively are likely to support improvement in macro parameters to attract strong FII flows in the quarters ahead.
Q) Which sectors are likely to drive momentum in the 2H2025?
A) Outlook for the FMCG sector, particularly rural-focused consumption looks positive on the back of favourable monsoon, easing inflation, healthy rural recovery, expectation of higher disposable income owing to tax relief and rising premiumization trends.
In the Pharma & Healthcare sector, CDMO (Contract Development & Manufacturing) presents a long-term opportunity.
Amid expectations of a ramp-up in Govt. capex, infrastructure and utilities sectors (eg. Power, Railway and Defence) could see strong order flows in 2HFY26.
Q) Any sector(s) which you think is overheated?
A) In the backdrop of geopolitical uncertainties and war-like situation, expectations of an elevated defence budget and accelerated spendings for weapon procurement programme led to a significant rally in all the defence related stocks to stretched valuations over the long-term averages.
Q) Despite recent regulatory steps, retail investors still account for 91% of the losses in the derivatives segment. What more can SEBI do to protect them?
A) SEBI has been proactive in introducing measures to mitigate risks for retail investors. The regulator is exploring moving the weekly option expiry to a fortnightly expiry as one of the alternatives to control surging volumes.
Another volatility boosting tool i.e., Algo Trading, which also received overwhelming response from retail investors, will be regulated with the new guidelines effective August 1st, 2025. While the regulator is taking several steps, market participants have to increase awareness among investors for taking informed decisions.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Mint
13 minutes ago
- Mint
Top Losers and Gainers on July 28: Kotak Mahindra Bank, SBI Cards, GMDC, CDSL among top losers today
Indian equities ended another session in the red, dragged down by a sharp decline in Kotak Mahindra Bank along with weakness in other key heavyweights, including Bharti Airtel and TCS, leading to an almost 0.70% drop in the benchmark indices. In addition, the delay in a potential India–US trade deal and continued selling by overseas investors also weighed on the Indian stock market, which extended its losing streak to a third consecutive session on Monday and fell to a 7-week low. The Nifty 50 slipped below the 24,700 mark, settling at 24,680 with a 0.63% decline, while the S&P BSE Sensex dropped 0.72% to close at 80,874 points. While large-cap stocks continued to face selling pressure, mid- and small-cap stocks saw even sharper declines, with the Nifty Smallcap 100 ending today's session down 1.26% and the Nifty Midcap 100 closing with a 0.84% drop.
Mint
13 minutes ago
- Mint
Personal loan volume spikes, year-on-year growth drops in FY 2025: Report
Resorting to borrowing when the credit need arises is a typical behaviour of consumers. Be it for car, home, consumer durables or for personal needs, borrowing is the part and parcel of life of consumers everywhere. CRIF High Mark released its annual report listing out latest trends relating to borrowing trends of Indian consumers. The report highlights that personal loan POS grew from ₹ 10.7 lakh crore to ₹ 14.6 lakh crore over two years but year-on-year growth fell sharply from 25.2 percent in FY2024 to 9.1 percent in FY2025. The report titled How India Lends Credit Landscape in India FY 2025 provides in depth insights into originations, portfolio and delinquency trends across major product categories. When it comes to the lender type, the share of NBFCs has increased from 27.6 percent to 36.4 percent in the past two years from 2023 to 2025. During this time, the share of private banks fell from 32.5 percent to 29.2 percent. The share of PSU banks declined from 35.3 percent to 30.5 percent. The share of origination value for personal loans over ₹ 10 lakh has risen steadily from 28.2 percent in FY24 to 30.9 percent in FY25, indicating a growing preference for higher-value loans. Meanwhile, the share for loans between ₹ 1 lakh and ₹ 10 lakh has declined, suggesting a shift away from mid-sized lending. Interestingly, loans under ₹ 1 lakh are also gaining market share in origination value, driven by the increasing adoption of digital and small-ticket lending solutions, especially by NBFCs. Loans below ₹ 1L also continue to dominate in volume, increasing from 87.1% in FY24 to 89.3% in FY25. The origination value of two-wheeler loans jumped from ₹ 99,543 crore in FY24 to ₹ 110,056 crore in FY25, though the growth rate moderated from 25.1 percent to 10.6 percent over the same period. The report suggests that tighter credit policies aimed at managing default risks, along with increasing stress among sub-prime borrowers, may have influenced this slowdown. Two-wheeler loan delinquencies increased across all lender types from Mar '24 to Mar 2025, with PAR 31-90 percent for PSU Banks climbing from 1.27 percent to 1.61 percent and private banks rising from 3.27 percent to 3.62 percent. In terms of credit cards, the share of private banks fell from 70.8 percent to 69.6 percent (active loans) and from 69.9 percent to 68.9 percent (portfolio outstanding). New card originations fell to 216.4 lakh in FY25, down 26.4 percent YoY, reversing the strong growth seen in FY22 and FY23. This follows a peak of 294.1 lakh cards that were issued in fiscal 2024, indicating a clear slowdown in momentum and tightening credit criteria. For all personal finance updates, visit here Disclaimer: Mint has a tie-up with fintechs for providing credit, you will need to share your information if you apply. These tie-ups do not influence our editorial content. This article only intends to educate and spread awareness about credit needs like loans, credit cards and credit score. Mint does not promote or encourage taking credit as it comes with a set of risks such as high interest rates, hidden charges, etc. We advise investors to discuss with certified experts before taking any credit.
Mint
15 minutes ago
- Mint
Why is Mold-Tek Packaging share price rising in bear-hit market? EXPLAINED
Small-cap stock Mold-Tek Packaging's share price is trading higher amid an overall bearish stock market on Monday, 28 July 2025, after the company recorded nearly a 36% jump in its April-June quarter net profits for the 2025-26 fiscal year, according to an exchange filing. Monday's fall on the Indian stock market marked the third consecutive day on which the benchmark indices closed in the red zone over a delayed India-US trade deal ahead of the US President Donald Trump's 1 August 2025 tariff deadline, relentless foreign capital outflows, and muted Q1 results, which continue to dampen investor risk appetite. The packaging firm's net profits rose 35.5% to ₹ 22.39 crore in the first quarter of the financial year 2025-26, compared on a year-on-year (YoY) basis with ₹ 16.52 crore in the same quarter of the previous fiscal year, as per the company's statements. Mold-Tek Packaging's revenue from core operations jumped 22% to ₹ 240.55 crore in the first quarter of the current fiscal year, compared YoY with ₹ 196.72 crore in the same period a year ago. Mold-Tek Packaging's share price jumped 2.30% to ₹ 757.30 during Monday's stock market session, compared to ₹ 740.35 in the previous market close. The company announced its first-quarter results during the stock market session on 28 July 2025. Shares of the packaging company have given stock market investors more than 233% returns in the last five years. However, in the last one-year period, the stock has lost 5.41%. On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, the shares have gained 14.06% and are currently trading 3.20% higher in the last five market sessions on the Indian stock market. Mold-Tek Packaging stock hit its 52-week high level at ₹ 841.80 on 1 August 2024, while the 52-week low level was at ₹ 415 on 7 April 2025, according to the BSE data. The company's market capitalisation stood at ₹ 2,513.27 crore as of the stock market session on Monday, 28 July 2025. Read all stories by Anubhav Mukherjee Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
