Map Shows Chances of Tropical Storm Developing in Caribbean
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources.
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Meteorologists are keeping an eye on the Caribbean amid a low chance that a tropical system could develop in the next week or two. If such a storm develops, it will be the first tropical storm of the 2025 hurricane season.
Why It Matters
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30. The Pacific hurricane season starts two weeks earlier, on May 15.
In March, AccuWeather released its 2025 hurricane forecast. This year, AccuWeather is predicting 13 to 18 named storms, with seven to 10 strengthening into hurricanes.
What to Know
AccuWeather meteorologists began monitoring the area of interest last week. Since that time, chances of development remain low. If a tropical system forms, it would pose a "near-zero risk of impact to the United States until at least May 26," AccuWeather said in an email.
It's a little early for such a storm to develop, considering the eastern Pacific hurricane season begins May 15, and the Atlantic hurricane season doesn't start until June 1.
However, warming ocean surface temperatures are contributing to stronger storms earlier in the season. Last year, Hurricane Beryl became the earliest Category 4 hurricane ever to form in the Atlantic when it underwent rapid strengthening in late June.
According to a map from AccuWeather, if a tropical storm develops, it could form in either the eastern Pacific or the Atlantic southeast of Honduras. As of Tuesday, AccuWeather meteorologists are calling it an "area of interest" that might see an increase in showers and thunderstorms between May 17 and 24.
A map from AccuWeather shows an area of interest with a low chance of a tropical storm developing.
A map from AccuWeather shows an area of interest with a low chance of a tropical storm developing.
AccuWeather
Regardless of if a system develops, the area is anticipating heavy precipitation with the chance at localized flash flooding through next weekend.
As of Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center is not tracking any potential systems.
Andrea is the first name on the 2025 hurricane list if a tropical system does form. However, less than 3 percent of tropical storms form outside of the hurricane season, FOX Weather reported.
What People Are Saying
AccuWeather senior meteorologist Tom Kines told Newsweek: "Each passing day, we become less and less concerned about development down there. The conditions ... are favorable for possible development, as favorable as it could be at this time of year, but that doesn't necessarily mean that anything is going to form. If everything fell into place, you could get something to form down there."
Kines added it would be "unusual" if such a storm formed this early in the season.
The NHC website says: "Tropical cyclone activity is not expected during the next 7 days."
What Happens Next
Meteorologists are closely monitoring the situation, but a tropical storm is not likely to develop in the immediate future. However, experts stress for people in high-risk storm areas to prepare for hurricane season ahead of time, so they are ready to respond if a storm is forecast to hit their area.
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