
Dollar rises, yen steady ahead of BOJ rate decision
SINGAPORE, June 17 (Reuters) - The dollar firmed slightly on Tuesday though most currencies held tight ranges as investors remained spooked by ongoing tensions in the Middle East and awaited upcoming central bank decisions.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) concludes its two-day monetary policy meeting later on Tuesday, where it is expected to keep interest rates steady and consider slowing reductions in its bond purchases from next fiscal year.
Ahead of the outcome, the yen edged a touch higher to 144.70 per dollar, reversing some of its declines from the previous session.
"Markets are now refocusing their attention to the usual economic data and events, and...the BOJ will be the next important driver of markets," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
"Attention will be on what Governor (Kazuo)
Ueda says at his press conference. Markets will be particularly interested in how he categorises the inflation trends in Japan, especially in the context of heightened trade tensions."
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and U.S. President Donald Trump did not reach a tariff agreement, Fuji TV reported on Tuesday.
In the broader market, the dollar extended some of its gains in a general risk-off move as ongoing tensions in the Middle East weighed on sentiment.
The White House said on Monday that Donald Trump is leaving the Group of Seven summit in Canada a day early due to the situation in the Middle East, as the president has requested that the national security council be prepared in the situation room.
Trump had earlier urged everyone to immediately evacuate Tehran, and reiterated that Iran should have signed a nuclear deal with the United States.
The risk-sensitive Australian dollar fell 0.27% to $0.6507, while the New Zealand dollar eased 0.17% to $0.6049.
Against a basket of currencies, the dollar firmed slightly at 98.23.
"The developments out of the Middle East over the past few days threaten regional stability gravely," said analysts at DBS in a note.
"The long-simmering Israel-Iran conflict reaching a major chapter should add to market stress, but so far, the view is global spillover risks are manageable."
Still, overall moves in the currency market were largely subdued, as investors also looked ahead to a slew of central bank decisions later in the week to guide the next move in markets.
The Federal Reserve's policy decision on Wednesday takes centre stage. Expectations are for the central bank to keep rates on hold, though focus will be on any guidance regarding the rate outlook.
"Markets anticipate two Fed rate cuts this year, but I expect zero," said Ronald Temple, chief market strategist at Lazard.
"Investors will carefully examine the Summary of Economic Projections for signs of potential policy easing with the dot plot and macro forecasts being focal points. I expect another shift in the dot plot toward fewer rate cuts."
Elsewhere, the euro fell 0.1% to $1.1545, while sterling eased 0.09% to $1.3563.
Trump signed an agreement on Monday formally lowering some tariffs on imports from Britain as the countries continue working toward a formal trade deal.
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Reuters
29 minutes ago
- Reuters
Breakingviews - Beijing has more at stake in Iran besides just oil
HONG KONG, June 17 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Beijing has far more at stake in Iran besides just oil. China has not only benefited from importing heavily discounted Iranian crude, it has inched up its strategic infrastructure investments into the country since the duo signed a $400 billion pact in 2021. If the regime in Tehran is severely weakened or changes, China also will lose a key diplomatic lever in the Middle East. Despite Washington's efforts to use sanctions to curb oil exports from Iran, it has become an increasingly important supplier to China. Crude shipments to the People's Republic from Malaysia, a major trans-shipment hub, have tripled to 70 million tonnes last year from 2021, according to data from the Chinese Customs – third after Russia and Saudi Arabia. Moreover, Iran's strategic location makes it a crucial cog in President Xi Jinping's signature Belt and Road policy to enhance his country's physical and economic connectivity with the world. As of 2023, China accounted for 3% of Iran's $6 billion worth of foreign direct investments. That pales in comparison to, say, Russia's 27% contribution, but China is ramping up its support in other ways: Iran has turned to the People's Republic for "thousands of tons of ballistic-missile ingredients", for instance, to build its military prowess, the Wall Street Journal reported, opens new tab in June, citing sources. The trio also conducts regular joint naval drills together. The escalating conflict threatens to undermine Beijing's nascent ambitions in Gulf politics too. Just two years ago, Chinese diplomats hailed a 'new paradigm, opens new tab' for resolving friction in the Middle East after they brokered a deal to restore diplomatic ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia. War also throws up a fresh test of China's diplomatic ties further afield too. Iran joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in 2023. However, India, a founding member, on Saturday issued a rare public rebuttal, opens new tab of the SCO's statement denouncing Israel's attacks, underscoring a potential rift between Xi and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has fostered closer ties with Israel. The danger for China is this could be a moment that ultimately erodes its ambition to project power in the region and one that gives rise to rival infrastructure projects, such as the ambitious India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, aimed at diluting Beijing's influence. For now, it appears the reshaping of the Middle East may not work in its favour.


Reuters
30 minutes ago
- Reuters
Breakingviews - Donald Trump's US chip revival is half-assembled
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Of the 51 wafer fabrication plants currently under construction worldwide, 23 are in China, according to an industry expert. It's a direct result of government funding: state-led investment in chips has probably exceeded $150 billion since 2014, according to, opens new tab the Economist Intelligence Unit. Little wonder that the U.S. is worrying about its dominance of advanced chips and artificial intelligence. While Huawei CEO Ren Zhengfei says, opens new tab the Chinese tech giant's chips are still one generation behind U.S. rivals, Nvidia (NVDA.O), opens new tab CEO Jensen Huang has said Huawei's latest processors are approaching parity with the $3.5 trillion company's cutting-edge H200 graphics processors. These are central to training advanced AI models. Chinese players like DeepSeek are also showing signs of catching up. For the Trump administration, maintaining the U.S. lead starts with safeguarding demand for American products. 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Taiwanese giant TSMC ( opens new tab, for instance, committed to spending over $100 billion in the U.S. as it finalised state funding of $6.6 billion. GlobalFoundries (GFS.O), opens new tab this month pledged, opens new tab $16 billion alongside a $1.5 billion subsidy. Tariffs are another of Trump's favoured tools. He has asked the Commerce Department to investigate chip supply chains under Section 232, citing national security. But applying levies to semiconductors is fraught. For a start, the U.S. imports relatively few chips, but lots of products which contain them. Semiconductors worth less than $40 billion arrived in the country in 2024, while the U.S. imported electronic goods worth $486 billion, according to the International Trade Centre. Trying to impose tariffs on components inside devices like laptops and iPhones would be tricky. There's no easy way to tell where the chip was made once it's been packaged. Even if the Trump administration can successfully tilt the playing field towards domestic manufacturing, however, resilience still comes at a price. Proposed subsidies would make the cost of building semiconductor fabrication plants in the United States as competitive as in Asia, according to an industry analyst. But running those plants in a high-wage economy is another challenge: McKinsey & Company estimates operating costs are 35% higher in the U.S. than in Taiwan. Buyers of U.S.-made chips for cars or medical machines would have to absorb that premium or pass it on to customers. It also implies that semiconductor firms will need ongoing support in the form of tax breaks or operational subsidies as they shift supply chains. However, Trump has made hostile noises about the costs of the CHIPS Act. One key incentive, a 25% investment tax credit for every dollar chipmakers spend on capital expenditures, is set to expire unless renewed. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has hinted at possibly withholding further subsidies unless paired with broader tax legislation. The administration's stance on immigration, especially from China, is another impediment. Nvidia's Huang reckons around half of global AI researchers are Chinese. Meanwhile, nearly a third of chip companies' design engineers are in mainland China – the same proportion as in the United States, according to BCG data. The administration's policy on export controls also remains in flux. Though it has rolled back the 'diffusion rule', nothing has replaced it. Crafting bespoke export agreements with every partner like the United Arab Emirates will be time-consuming. Other potential measures, such as banning shipments of chip-making equipment made by the likes of ASML ( opens new tab to China, would require cooperation from key allies in Japan and the Netherlands. It would also require U.S. equipment makers like $114 billion Lam Research (LRCX.O), opens new tab to sacrifice revenue which could be as much as 30% of the total top line. Trump's chaotic and go-it-alone instincts on tariffs risk undermining the partnerships he will need to isolate China. China's chip campaign still falls short in several areas, including scale and efficiency. But Beijing's strategic clarity, persistence, and willingness to absorb long-term costs signal its serious intent. By contrast, Trump's U.S. chip revival is at best half-assembled. Follow Karen Kwok on LinkedIn, opens new tab and X, opens new tab.


The Independent
an hour ago
- The Independent
US-UK trade deal ‘done' - but there is one area of concern
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