Tigers at the trade deadline: What I'm hearing about Eugenio Suárez, relievers and more

New York Times

3 days ago

DETROIT — Swept by the Pirates, bashed by the Blue Jays, losers of 10 out of 11 and playing their most listless baseball of the season, the Tigers are hoping to right their ship. They have talked all season about not panicking, about trusting their body of work, about staying the course in times good and bad.
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Thursday at Comerica Park, we heard many of those same truisms, albeit with a different monster lurking in the background. The trade deadline is less than one week away, and this will be the ultimate test of how much the Tigers value their roster and their pragmatic approach.
They still lead the AL Central by eight games. But if the season ended today, they would no longer be skipping the American League Wild Card. The Astros and Blue Jays have passed them for the best record in the AL. The bullpen is taking on water at a rapid pace. The lineup and rotation will be under the microscope for the next two months.
The deadline represents an opportunity to add reinforcements and improve the roster. For the first time in nearly a decade, the Tigers will be buyers.
But just how active will they be?
Here's a handful of intel on the team's thinking:
The Tigers seem to be focusing most of their early trade efforts on the relief market. This should be no surprise. Swing-and-miss relief help for a bullpen with the AL's lowest whiff rate is the Tigers' most glaring need. It's an element of this team that could be especially crucial in the postseason. Ryan Helsley of the Cardinals and David Bednar of the Pirates figure as two of the most ideal fits. Félix Bautista of the Orioles is another notable name, too — though he recently went on the injured list with a right shoulder issue.
Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax of the Minnesota Twins and Emmanuel Clase of the Cleveland Guardians would be excellent options. But trades with division rivals are rare, and it doesn't seem like the Tigers are thrilled about shipping prospects to an AL Central foe.
Also, consider the Tigers aren't merely scanning lists of trade candidates on the internet. They have their own models and their own ideas for how they can help pitchers improve. Don't be shocked if they check in on some lesser-known names. There is real pressure for the Tigers to add a legitimate leverage arm, if not a proven closer. But it's also likely the Tigers identify a versatile reliever they think can be just as valuable. Reid Detmers of the Angels is just one player who comes to mind.
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Suárez is the biggest bat on the market right now. He's a right-handed power hitter who plays third base. Seems, in many ways, like a stellar fit for Detroit.
The Tigers aren't totally ruling out trade discussions for Suárez. But they don't seem intent on going all out to get him, either.
The main reason for hesitation: Suárez, who profiles as below-average but serviceable at third base, would fundamentally alter the way the Tigers are constructed.
If you pencil in Suárez at third base every day, that changes the usage for players such as Colt Keith, Zach McKinstry and Matt Vierling. Keith could slot into a near-everyday DH. McKinstry and Vierling would shift more to the outfield, where they would contend with Wenceel Pérez and Parker Meadows for playing time. Kerry Carpenter, too, is on rehab assignment in Triple A and should be back soon. That makes quite the crowd in right field and limits at-bats for one of Carpenter and Keith — two of the Tigers' best hitters — at DH.
But could all that be overthinking?
Put Suárez on this team, and it's objectively better on paper. He would give the Tigers the type of power that plays in the postseason. The 2019 Washington Nationals are the last team to win the World Series without ranking in the league's top four for home runs. The Tigers entered Thursday ranking 10th in homers.
The case against Suárez is more layered. There's evidence that contact is another factor that plays in the postseason. Inspired by this fascinating Eno Sarris piece from 2019, let's look at World Series champions in that same period since the Nationals won. Only the 2021 Atlanta Braves ranked worse than 20th in strikeout rate during the regular season. Those Braves ranked 18th with a 22.1 percent strikeout rate. The Tigers rank 17th with a 22.6 percent K%. Suárez strikes out at a 26.4 percent rate, higher than all but 28 other hitters in the league.
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So the power is a plus. The whiff is a concern. More importantly, adding Suárez would also dampen one of the Tigers' greatest strengths — mixing and matching, hunting matchups, giving opposing managers headaches.
It's a complicated discussion. Maybe this will tip the scales: There are other suitors here, and the Yankees are chief among them. At this point, parting with substantial prospect capital — or even big-league depth in Justyn-Henry Malloy or Jace Jung — seems like a total departure from the Tigers' identity.
Do not expect the Tigers to move any of their prospects in the top 100. Might other teams be willing to put together better offers?
There are other right-handed hitters out there. Randal Grichuk (Suárez's Arizona teammate) profiles as the type of platoon bat who might better fit the Tigers' construction. Old friend Willi Castro, a switch-hitter and another in-division name, would be a strong fit. But it's also unclear whether the Tigers see merit in seeking a marginal upgrade when they already have Jahmai Jones, Malloy, Andy Ibáñez and even Hao-Yu Lee in their organization. (For the record, the Tigers aren't interested in Pittsburgh's Ke'Bryan Hayes.)
And for all the talk of a right-handed bat, keep in mind the Tigers actually rank fifth with a .763 OPS against left-handed pitching.
The right bat could be a valuable upgrade. But the Tigers aren't desperate for a hitter despite their recent struggles.
So far, the Tigers have given no real indication of being interested in starting pitching, but one question looms. After Tarik Skubal, who do you want starting Game 2 of a postseason series? Reese Olson, Casey Mize and Jack Flaherty are options. All three have pros and cons. The Tigers need to hope one of those starters catches fire over the final two months. Otherwise, might it be a mistake to neglect this rotation?
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A controllable starter such as Pittsburgh's Mitch Keller (3.53 ERA, 2.6 fWAR) or Miami's Edward Cabrera (3.48 ERA, 1.4 fWAR) could thrive under the Tigers' pitching department this fall and beyond.
The flip side of this one? Controllable starters do not come cheap. The Tigers, meanwhile, are not enamored with top rental options such as Sandy Alcantara and Zac Gallen.
Another question: Do the Tigers think starting pitching matters in the postseason? Sans an elite arm like Skubal, the playoffs are ripe for shorter starts and leaning into bullpen matchups — hence relief being such a priority for the Tigers. This is the team that authored pitching chaos last year, and it's reasonable to see the Tigers being perfectly comfortable patching things together in the playoffs.
All that gets harder in a seven-game series, which the Tigers did not play in the postseason last year. But the Tigers are also hoping for built-in reinforcements in the likes of Troy Melton (who had a rough debut Wednesday in Pittsburgh) and José Urquidy, whom the Tigers hope can join their staff soon.
Detroit is going to add at the trade deadline, but much like last season, it's also banking on internal improvements. Unheralded names such as left-hander Drew Sommers are percolating in the minors. The team hopes Alex Lange can return from injury soon.
Even their pragmatism, though, comes with an element of risk. What happens if you don't do enough when a golden opportunity is right in front of you?
The Tigers feel their approach has worked incredibly well for the past 12 months. Hot, cold or somewhere in between, it's unlikely they'll change course now.