Crypto Traders Eye Jackson Hole as Ether, XRP, Solana Drop Sharply in Retreat
The flush came alongside fading hopes of a September Fed rate cut, with Polymarket odds of 'no cut' jumping from 12% to 26%. That shift left some investors recalibrating risk ahead of Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech on Friday.
Nick Forster, founder at Derive.xyz, called the move a reset of short-term positioning rather than a structural shift in a Monday note.
'It's been a turbulent 24 hours in the crypto market, with over $270 million in liquidations, led by $170 million in ETH and $104 million in BTC,' he said.
'A vast majority (95%) of these were longs, triggered by moderate pullbacks of 3% for ETH and 2% for BTC. This flush comes as expectations for a Fed rate cut in September dropped sharply,' Forster said.
That macro repricing spilled into derivatives. ETH's seven-day implied volatility rose to 73% from 68%, even as 30-day IV stayed steady, Derive's data showed. The divergence suggests traders see turbulence in the coming sessions but aren't yet bracing for a prolonged selloff.
Forster flagged a 21% probability of BTC hitting $100,000 before September's close, up from 15%, while the chance of ETH correcting to $4,000 by month-end climbed to 60%.
SignalPlus head of Insights Augustine Fan noted that markets have already ruled out any chance of an outsized 50-basis-point cut.
'Any hopes of a 50bp cut at the September meeting were quickly dashed, with ~90% of a single cut being priced as of Friday's close,' Fan said. 'Focus will be on Jackson Hole later this week, but we are not looking for a lot of new dovish surprises given the inflation backdrop.'
That backdrop has weighed on majors. Bitcoin slipped to $115,036, its lowest in nearly two weeks, while Ethereum traded at $4,235. XRP held firmer at $3.02, trimming weekly gains to just 4% from a 9% high earlier.
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