Germany to return to growth after two years of contraction, economists predict
BERLIN: The German economy is expected to grow this year following two consecutive years of contraction, four economic institutes said on Thursday, raising their forecasts for 2025 and 2026.
The Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) raised its forecast to 0.3 per cent growth from the stagnation it had previously envisaged due to a better-than-expected first quarter when the economy grew by 0.4 per cent.
"The German economy is seeing some light at the end of the tunnel," the economists said in their new forecasts.
They are also more optimistic about next year, raising the forecast for Europe's largest economy to 1.6 per cent growth from 1.5 per cent previously.
The Leibniz Institute for Economic Research (RWI) said it expects 0.3 per cent growth this year and 1.5 per cent in 2026. The Ifo institute meanwhile predicts growth of 0.3 per cent this year, up from the 0.2 per cent previously forecast, and 1.5 per cent in 2026, up from 0.8 per cent previously.
The Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) in its summer forecast said the economy is likely to grow by 0.4 per cent this year, up from predicted growth of 0.1 per cent previously, and by 1.1 per cent in 2026.
"The crisis in the German economy reached its low point in the winter half-year," said Timo Wollmershaeuser, head of forecasts at Ifo. "One reason for the growth spurt is the fiscal measures announced by the new German government."
The German cabinet approved a $52.94 billion tax relief package last week to support companies and revive its sluggish economy from this year through 2029.
Germany's parliament also approved plans for a massive spending surge in March, including a €500 billion infrastructure fund and largely removing defence investment from the rules that cap borrowing.
The German government needs structural reforms to bring the economy back to growth, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said on Thursday in its report on Germany, which includes its forecasts of growth of 0.4 per cent this year and 1.2 per cent in 2026 published last week.
Growth will be driven by investments and consumption, while exports will remain a hurdle, the OECD said in its report. A decline of 0.3 per cent in exports is expected in 2025, followed by a small increase of 0.6 per cent in 2026.
In its economic forecast, the Ifo institute estimates a boost from the German government's measures of €10 billion in 2025 and €57 billion in 2026. Growth is likely to be 0.1 percentage points higher this year and 0.7 percentage points higher next year than in a scenario without the plans.
The US tariff offensive will cut economic growth by 0.1 percentage points in 2025 and 0.3 percentage points in 2026, taking into account the tariffs already imposed.
If an agreement is reached in the trade conflict, growth in Germany could be greater, while an escalation could lead to a renewed recession, Ifo said.
Oliver Holtemoeller, head of the macroeconomics department at IWH, said a possible escalation of US trade conflicts is a significant risk for the German economy.
"The economic antagonism between the US and China demands a special balancing act from the German industry, as it is closely linked with producers in both economic areas," Holtemoeller said.
Ifo said the inflation rate will be 2.1 per cent in 2025 and 2.0 per cent in 2026, at the European Central Bank's target, while the labour market is expected to stabilise. It is forecast the unemployment rate will rise to 6.3 per cent in 2025 before falling to 6.1 per cent in 2026. — Reuters
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a day ago
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Germany to return to growth after two years of contraction, economists predict
BERLIN: The German economy is expected to grow this year following two consecutive years of contraction, four economic institutes said on Thursday, raising their forecasts for 2025 and 2026. The Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) raised its forecast to 0.3 per cent growth from the stagnation it had previously envisaged due to a better-than-expected first quarter when the economy grew by 0.4 per cent. "The German economy is seeing some light at the end of the tunnel," the economists said in their new forecasts. They are also more optimistic about next year, raising the forecast for Europe's largest economy to 1.6 per cent growth from 1.5 per cent previously. The Leibniz Institute for Economic Research (RWI) said it expects 0.3 per cent growth this year and 1.5 per cent in 2026. The Ifo institute meanwhile predicts growth of 0.3 per cent this year, up from the 0.2 per cent previously forecast, and 1.5 per cent in 2026, up from 0.8 per cent previously. The Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) in its summer forecast said the economy is likely to grow by 0.4 per cent this year, up from predicted growth of 0.1 per cent previously, and by 1.1 per cent in 2026. "The crisis in the German economy reached its low point in the winter half-year," said Timo Wollmershaeuser, head of forecasts at Ifo. "One reason for the growth spurt is the fiscal measures announced by the new German government." The German cabinet approved a $52.94 billion tax relief package last week to support companies and revive its sluggish economy from this year through 2029. Germany's parliament also approved plans for a massive spending surge in March, including a €500 billion infrastructure fund and largely removing defence investment from the rules that cap borrowing. The German government needs structural reforms to bring the economy back to growth, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said on Thursday in its report on Germany, which includes its forecasts of growth of 0.4 per cent this year and 1.2 per cent in 2026 published last week. Growth will be driven by investments and consumption, while exports will remain a hurdle, the OECD said in its report. A decline of 0.3 per cent in exports is expected in 2025, followed by a small increase of 0.6 per cent in 2026. In its economic forecast, the Ifo institute estimates a boost from the German government's measures of €10 billion in 2025 and €57 billion in 2026. Growth is likely to be 0.1 percentage points higher this year and 0.7 percentage points higher next year than in a scenario without the plans. The US tariff offensive will cut economic growth by 0.1 percentage points in 2025 and 0.3 percentage points in 2026, taking into account the tariffs already imposed. If an agreement is reached in the trade conflict, growth in Germany could be greater, while an escalation could lead to a renewed recession, Ifo said. Oliver Holtemoeller, head of the macroeconomics department at IWH, said a possible escalation of US trade conflicts is a significant risk for the German economy. "The economic antagonism between the US and China demands a special balancing act from the German industry, as it is closely linked with producers in both economic areas," Holtemoeller said. Ifo said the inflation rate will be 2.1 per cent in 2025 and 2.0 per cent in 2026, at the European Central Bank's target, while the labour market is expected to stabilise. It is forecast the unemployment rate will rise to 6.3 per cent in 2025 before falling to 6.1 per cent in 2026. — Reuters
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By Martin Häusling The writer, an organic dairy farmer, is a member of the European Parliament for the Greens/EFA group. Food prices have surged in recent years across the European Union. In March 2023, food-price inflation hit a record high of 15%. In Germany, consumers are paying nearly 30% more for food than they did in 2021, even though energy and production costs have declined. Some economists have attributed this to food processors and retailers reaping windfall profits at the expense of low-income households. Meanwhile, the share of retail food prices reaching farmers keeps shrinking. German producers, for example, received just 21.7% of retail prices in 2021, and this figure continues to decline. The fall in farmers' share of bread prices is a striking example: in 1970, farmers earned 19.2% of the shelf price; by 2022, that share had plummeted to 5%. Milk producers face similar challenges. Between 2014 and 2024, milk prices consistently failed to coverrising production costs. As a result, many farms operate at a loss and depend on subsidies to survive. Farmers are expected to produce high-quality food while also providing – often under burdensome bureaucratic requirements – environmental, climate, and animal protection. But as value creation shifts away from producers, profits are increasingly concentrated among a few powerful processors and retailers. The widespread farmers' protests of early 2024 revealed deep-rooted frustration across the EU's agriculture sector. The widespread farmers' protests of early 2024 revealed deep-rooted frustration across the EU's agriculture sector. But the political response was underwhelming. Under pressure from conservative and liberal factions, the bloc's Common Agricultural Policy was rapidly stripped of environmental standards, amounting to a powerful blow against the CAP's already-fragile ecological pillar. Meanwhile, the core issue – ensuring fair prices along the value chain – has not been sufficiently addressed. Fortunately, the issue of fair pricing in agriculture is finally gaining political traction. The EU is now revising both its Unfair Trading Practices Directive and the Common Market Organization rules. These reforms are the result of the Strategic Dialogue on the Future of EU Agriculture – a policy forum launched by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in 2024 – which brought together a broad coalition of stakeholders. The EU's Agriculture Commissioner Christophe Hansen has incorporated parts of its recommendations into his policy agenda. But fixing Europe's broken food supply chain requires more than cosmetic changes. Prices must be set from the bottom up, which implies four key reforms, starting with the enforcement of contractual obligations. Dairy farmers, in particular, often deliver their products without knowing the price – an arrangement that would be unthinkable in most other sectors. 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Today's artificially low prices are made possible by the overexploitation of natural resources – both in Europe and globally – alongside poor animal welfare, precarious migrant labor, and the relentless financial pressure placed on farmers. With many EU farmers facing crushing debt and rising input costs, it is no surprise that under 12% are under the age of 40. If Europe wants to feed itself in the future, it must make farming economically and ecologically sustainable – not by increasing subsidies, but by establishingfair market conditions and introducing robust sustainability standards. Market-based solutions like three-party contracts show that positive change is possible, so long as Europe stays the course. Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2025
