Rs 12 lakh per child scheme in China: Worried Dragon plans to pay women directly to have more babies

Time of India

5 hours ago

China will soon pay parents 3,600 yuan (approx: Rs 42k) a year for each child born after 1 January 2025. The payment will continue until the child turns three, say people briefed on the plan. The State Council Information Office did not respond to a request for comment, as reported by Bloomberg.
The push comes as China's population shrinks for a third year. New births last year fell to 9.54 million — nearly half the number in 2016 when the one-child policy ended.
China's one-child rule ended nearly a decade ago. But families have not rushed to have more children. Marriage rates have dropped to their lowest in nearly fifty years. This means even fewer babies in the years ahead.
Local governments have tried to stop the slide with cash and housing aid. Cities like Hohhot in Inner Mongolia now pay 50,000 yuan for a second child and 100,000 yuan for a third. Incomes there remain low. The cash stands out, as reported by SCMP.
Tianmen's surprise baby boom
As reported by the SCMP, in Tianmen, central China, new mum Tang Tang shows what the policy looks like in real life. She got 6,500 yuan when her second baby arrived. Now she collects 800 yuan every month until her child turns three.
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For Tang, this money matters. 'Your baby was born with her own food,' a user wrote under her Douyin post. Tang said, 'I'm OK with raising my child in a thrifty way, so this subsidy definitely makes a difference.'
Tianmen's birth numbers tell their own story. Officials say births jumped 17 per cent in 2024 — far above the 5.5 per cent rise nationwide.
Experts see limits
Still, not everyone thinks money alone will fix things. According to SCMP, Huang Wenzheng, a demographer, studied Tianmen's plan. He found the city spent about 0.87 per cent of its economic output on birth payments. This lifted the fertility rate by just 0.1 percentage point.
Huang said, 'If the population starts to decline rapidly, businesses will hesitate to invest. If businesses hold back on investment, job opportunities shrink, making the labour market more difficult to navigate.' He compared China's shrinking population to an empty train: 'If half the passengers suddenly leave, those remaining might feel more comfortable, hoping that every station is this empty. But they forget that if there aren't enough people, the subway system itself won't be sustainable.'
Huang estimates China would need to spend 30 to 50 times more to reach the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.
Other countries show mixed results
In South Korea, the health ministry raised payments in 2024. A year later, births rose 3.1 per cent — the first rise in nine years. Japan shows a different path. By adding more childcare places since 2005, it lifted its fertility rate by 0.1.
Sissi Xi, a mother near the French-German border, said, 'Many people apply for day care years in advance – sometimes two, three or even four years ahead. They wait until they secure a spot before deciding to have a baby.'
Wider efforts in the works
Policymakers know money alone is not enough. Zhejiang now plans marriage vouchers and childcare coupons. The
National Health Commission
says it is drafting a wider plan for families.
China is also cracking down on long work hours. Big firms like DJI have pledged to cut overtime.
Studies show the extra cash can tip the scales for some. A recent survey of over 144,000 parents found just 15 per cent wanted more kids. After learning about a possible 1,000-yuan subsidy, that figure rose by 8.5 percentage points.
For a country now less populous than India, the bigger question remains: is money enough to bring back the babies? For now, China is ready to find out — one payment at a time.
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