Octa's oil outlook: Middle East tensions threaten global supply

Malay Mail

5 hours ago

NYMEX light sweet crude oil (WTI) daily chart
Source: TradingView, Octa analysis and calculations
KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA - Media OutReach Newswire - 21 June 2025 - Crude oil, which is arguably the world's most important commodity, is on everybody's mind right now. The flared up conflict in the Middle East is increasing risks of a major oil supply shock, potentially pushing the price of 'black gold' into the stratosphere and completely derailing the global economy. In this article, Octa, a global retail broker, shares its expert opinion on the unfolding situation and outlines possible scenarios for the global oil market.As it often happens, the market started to price in the possibility of a new conflict in the Middle East well in advance. On 11 June, oil prices rose more than 4% after reports surfaced that the U.S. was preparing to evacuate its Iraqi embassy due to heightened security concerns in the region. Two days later, Israel and Iran exchanged airstrikes, pushing both Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the world's two major oil benchmarks, to five-month highs as investors anticipated potential supply disruptions from an open conflict. To this day, the conflict continues without resolution and oil prices remain elevated even as there are some telltale signs that the parties may be willing to negotiate., argues Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa broker, adding that the conflict between Israel and IranIndeed, the Middle East in general and Iran in particular play a pivotal role in global energy markets. A substantial portion of the world's crude oil and liquified natural gas (LNG) is produced and exported in this region. Iran itself, despite the existing sanctions on exports, remains an important supplier of oil—notably, for China. Furthermore, a vast number of ships carrying crude oil and LNG transit through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow yet vital chokepoint that Iran has repeatedly threatened to close. Should Iran act on this threat and block the strait, the repercussions would be quite severe, likely pushing global crude oil prices well above $100 per barrel, or even higher, due to the significant disruption of supply.Technically, if we look at a broader, long-term picture, WTI crude oil seems to be moving sideways with a minor bearish tilt. On a daily chart (see below), the price still has not escaped from the bearish parallel channel. However, due to the latest geopolitical news, the price has managed to rise above the 200-day moving average (MA) and seems poised to break above the critically important 77.60-78.00 area., says Kar Yong Ang.Indeed, a break above 80 level, would open the way towards 83.40, 85.20, 87.30, and 90.00 area.Alternatively, in case the hostilities moderate somewhat, other countries—particularly the U.S.—refrain from directly participating in the conflict, and both Israel and Iran express willingness to negotiate, bearish sentiment will immediately kick in., concludes Kar Yong Ang. In this scenario, a break below 71.50 level would allow bears to target 67.80, 64.80 and 61.70.Overall, WTI crude price is now stuck in a broad range between $70 and $80. The move above and below these two levels will essentially indicate if the situation in the region is getting worse or is getting better. The chart below shows potential bullish and bearish targets, marked in green and red, respectively.___Hashtag: #Octa
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Octa
Octa is an international CFD broker that has been providing online trading services worldwide since 2011. It offers commission-free access to financial markets and various services used by clients from 180 countries who have opened more than 52 million trading accounts. To help its clients reach their investment goals, Octa offers free educational webinars, articles, and analytical tools.
The company is involved in a comprehensive network of charitable and humanitarian initiatives, including improving educational infrastructure and funding short-notice relief projects to support local communities.
In Southeast Asia, Octa received the 'Best Trading Platform Malaysia 2024' and the 'Most Reliable Broker Asia 2023' awards from Brands and Business Magazine and International Global Forex Awards, respectively.