Indian stock market: What does US-Iran escalation mean for Nifty 50, Sensex? Key technical levels to watch out
Indian stock market: Indian benchmark indices - Sensex, Nifty 50 - are expected to open in gap-up session on Monday after United States has officially joined Israel in striking Iranian nuclear strikes.
However, investors are hopeful for a market rebound as escalating geopolitical tensions continue to exert downward pressure on market sentiment, according to experts.
Mahesh M Ojha, AVP — Research at Hensex Securities, said, ' Investors should keep an eye on the gap-up opening on Monday as geopolitical tensions intensify worldwide. The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran is expected to push up global crude oil and gold prices.'
Experts suggest that the U.S. economy and global markets were unprepared for this sudden conflict, which could weigh heavily on overall investor sentiment across global stock markets.
The Israel-Iran conflict has escalated significantly, with the United States launching attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities and formally entering the war alongside Israel. The strikes reportedly targeted Iran's heavily guarded nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan. US B-2 bombers, known for their advanced stealth capabilities and built by Northrop Grumman, were used in the operation. These aircraft are capable of carrying powerful bombs, which experts believe are well-suited for such high-security targets.
Iran has pledged to strike back, sparking concerns about a wider conflict in the Middle East. In light of the escalating tensions, the United States has initiated evacuation flights from Israel.
On Friday, Indian equities ended the week with a 1.6% gain, rebounding from a three-day slump with a strong rally. Sensex opened slightly below its previous close at 81,354.85, compared to 81,361.87, but rallied by 1,133 points or 1.4% to hit an intraday high of 82,494.49. Similarly, the Nifty 50 started the day at 24,787.65, just under its last close of 24,793.25, and rose 1.4% to reach an intraday high of 25,136.20.
Also Read | Stocks to buy under ₹100: Sumeet Bagadia recommends 3 shares to buy on Monday
Key technical levels to watch out
According to Sugandha Sachdeva, Founder of SS WealthStreet, the Nifty has successfully defended key support of 24500 and appears poised for an upside breakout from its consolidation range.
' For the past six consecutive weeks, Nifty has largely moved in a band of 24500-25200 and once there is a breakout on the higher side it would signal a bullish impulse and is likely to pave the way for higher targets of around the 25700 mark,' Sachdeva said.
Meanwhile, on the outlook of Bank Nifty, she said, ' As for the Bank Nifty, it's likely to remain supported at 55400 levels and as long as the banking index is able to maintain this level, it is well-positioned to target higher levels of around 57180 mark.'
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Scroll.in
12 minutes ago
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On June 13, the Israeli military began striking what it claimed were nuclear targets and other sites in Iran, with the aim of stalling Tehran's nuclear programme. Iran retaliated with missile attacks on Israel. The official toll in Iran is at least 430 so far, while at least 25 persons have died in Israel. The continued exchange of fire has led to concerns of a wider regional conflict that the United States could get drawn into. Washington is an ally of Israel and acts as a guarantor of the country's security. Tehran has rejected US President Donald Trump's demand for an ' unconditional surrender ' and vowed to fight back. The prevailing uncertainty has led to a spike in global oil prices. The price of benchmark Brent crude had jumped to $78 per barrel by Thursday from $69 per barrel on June 12, the day before the conflict began. But the spike was not because of Israeli military's strikes reportedly on the Shahran oil depot in Tehran and one of Iran's largest refineries in Shahr Rey. These actions have little impact on Iranian energy exports. Instead, the spike in prices primarily stem from concerns about the possible blocking of the Strait of Hormuz amid the conflict. The closure could threaten global energy security. The chokepoint The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterbody that connects the Gulf to the Arabian Sea. In 2024, an average 20 million barrels of oil was transported through the strait every day. That was about one-fifth of global petroleum liquids consumption. This makes the Strait of Hormuz one of the most strategically important chokepoints. Iran has in the past threatened to block the waterbody in retaliation to pressure from the West. On Sunday, the Iranian Parliament decided that the Strait of Hormuz should be closed, state-run Press TV quoted lawmaker Major General Kowsari as saying. The final decision will be taken by the Supreme National Security Council, the member of the parliamentary national security commission added. Unlike other chokepoints such as the Suez Canal or the Strait of Malacca, there is no practical alternative for fuel supplies to bypass the Strait of Hormuz in large volumes. Cargo ships are already sailing closer to the Omani coast and have been advised by maritime agencies and governments to avoid Iranian waters in the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported on Wednesday. An attempt to shutter the strait will not go unchallenged because of the regional powers' strategic interest in keeping fuel supply open. But the ensuing military confrontation may still disrupt supplies to some extent. India's interest When Tel Aviv and Tehran last exchanged missile fire in October, former Indian diplomat Navdeep Suri had told Scroll that if the conflict escalated and became an all-out war, Iran, feeling threatened, had the capacity to block the Strait of Hormuz. In that case, New Delhi will be staring at a scenario that will 'directly impact India's energy security', he had said. 'A very large chunk of India's energy supplies come from there and that could really be serious for us,' explained Suri, who served as India's ambassador to the United Arab Emirates. 'It's in our interest that it doesn't get out of hand.' India consumes 5.5 million barrels of crude per day for refining. Of this, 1.5 million barrels come through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Union Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri. If the strait gets blocked, Amena Bakr, the head of Middle East and OPEC+ insights at analytics firm Kpler, told CNBC International on June 13 that oil prices could jump to three-digits. To put the impact of such a scenario into context: a spike of every $10 per barrel drives up inflation in India by about 0.5%, financial services company Morgan Stanley had estimated in April 2024. But Puri told NDTV that closing the strait was not in Iran's own interest. Yet, he said, India remained comfortably placed to meet its fuel needs, adding that New Delhi can tap into alternative supplies if needed. Here is a summary of the week's other top stories. Countering Trump's claims. Prime Minister Narendra Modi told United States President Donald Trump that India will never accept mediation to resolve tensions with Pakistan. The topic came up during a phone call when Trump asked for the details about India's military strikes – codenamed Operation Sindoor – on Pakistan in May, said Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri. Trump was told that India had agreed to the ceasefire only on Islamabad's request, said Misri. The 'halt to military action was directly between India and Pakistan', the foreign secretary quoted Modi as having reiterated. The call between the two leaders came against the backdrop of the US president repeatedly claiming that he helped settle the tensions between India and Pakistan. 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Air India will avoid parts of Persian Gulf in addition to Iran, Iraq and Israel, with some routes to Europe and North America likely to see longer travel times New Delhi Air India is making adjustments to the routes of flights bound for North America and Europe that pass through West Asia, the airline announced through a notification on Sunday. The Tata-owned airline stated that it already refrains from operating flights over the airspace of Iran, Iraq and Israel. Moving forward, it plans to gradually avoid specific regions of the Persian Gulf as well, according to a report by The Economic Times. Consequently, flights bound for destinations such as the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Oman and Kuwait are likely to experience increased travel times due to the rerouting. 'This adjustment may lead to extended flight durations for these services, as well as for select flights to/from Europe and North America,' an Air India spokesperson said. Additionally, Air India emphasised that this decision is a preventive measure, made in coordination with independent security experts. It is part of the airline's broader strategy to adapt to shifting geopolitical threats in the region. ALSO READ: 'We are vigilantly monitoring the situation and are ready to implement additional measures, if required, to uphold the safety and integrity of our operations,' the airline added. The airline stated that passengers will be kept informed of any further updates as it continues to manage the complexities arising from the region's volatile geopolitical situation. Iran conflict In the early morning of June 22, the United States launched a coordinated airstrike on three major Iranian nuclear sites: Fordow, Natanz, and a facility near Isfahan. The operation reportedly involved six B-2 stealth bombers deploying 30,000-pound 'bunker-buster' bombs, along with 30 Tomahawk missiles launched from submarines. President Trump hailed the mission as a 'very successful' strike, claiming the enrichment facilities were 'completely obliterated', though Iranian officials downplayed the impact, reporting only limited tunnel damage at Fordow. The escalation triggered widespread global concern over a broader West Asian conflict.
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16 minutes ago
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Turkey hoping to hold 5G tender in August, minister says
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