Donald Tusk seeks confidence vote after presidential election blow

Telegraph

2 days ago

Donald Tusk, the Polish prime minister, will ask for a vote of confidence in his centrist government after nationalist opposition candidate Karol Nawrocki narrowly won Sunday's presidential election.
Mr Nawrocki's victory was a major blow to Mr Tusk, who had hoped Rafał Trzaskowski, his preferred candidate, would aid his liberal reform agenda and attempts to forge a leadership role for Poland in the EU.
Instead, Mr Nawrocki is expected to block the government's progressive moves on abortion and LGBT rights and revive tensions with Brussels over rule-of-law issues such as the independence of the judiciary.
'I want everyone to see, including our opponents at home and abroad, that we are ready for this situation, that we understand the seriousness of the moment, but that we are not going to take a step back,' Mr Tusk said.
Mr Tusk ousted the hard-Right and Eurosceptic Law and Justice (PiS) in a general election in October 2023 and set about repairing relations with Brussels, which had frozen EU funding to Poland.
Now he is facing the prospect of a lame duck administration stymied by presidential vetoes before the next election, which must be held by November 2027.
The vote is intended to show that his broad and unwieldy coalition remains united despite the presidential loss, which has led to predictions the government could fall and trigger fresh elections.
But it is also a gamble that could backfire because not all the parties in Mr Tusk's liberal alliance may be willing to recommit to the government when it is so unpopular.
Szymon Hołownia, the speaker of the Sejm – the Polish parliament's lower house – and a junior coalition partner, has hinted he and his 32 MPs might abstain from the 'theatrical' vote, which is expected to be held this week.
'The election result, as I've said many times, is a yellow card – maybe even a red one – for this government and this coalition,' he said before Mr Tusk's announcement, which followed talks among senior coalition figures.
Mr Tusk said he expected a difficult relationship with the new president, who is armed with vetoes which can block his programme of reforms, but had an emergency plan.
'A contingency plan assuming a difficult cohabitation is prepared. It is difficult to assume in advance what the new president's attitude will be. If he shows a willingness to cooperate, it will be a positive surprise to which we will respond with complete openness,' he said.
'If not, there is no longer anything to wait for, we will set to work regardless of the circumstances, because that is what we were elected for.'
He said the coalition would submit legislation.It already has experience of dealing with a president trying to block changes in the outgoing Andrzej Duda of PiS.
'This plan will require unity and courage from the entire Coalition. The first test will be a vote of confidence, which I will ask the Sejm for in the near future,' he added.
Nato meanwhile vowed to become 'even stronger' by working together with Poland's president-elect, despite fears his narrow election victory could sap Polish support for Ukraine.
Mark Rutte, Nato secretary general, on Monday congratulated Mr Nawrocki, who is backed by the PiS and Donald Trump, the S president.
He said they would work together to face down the threat from Russia and was looking forward to 'making sure that with Poland, Nato becomes even stronger than it is today'.
Poland, which neighbours both Ukraine and Russia, has been one of Kyiv's strongest supporters since Russia's invasion in 2022.
In March 2025, Poland was hosting 997,120 Ukrainian refugees, second only to Germany in the EU, but public opinion is hardening.
Mr Nawrocki defeated Mr Trzaskowski, taking 50.89 per cent of the vote.
During the campaign Mr Nawrocki stoked anti-Ukrainian sentiment and vowed to block Kyiv's efforts to join Nato and the EU.
Like Mr Trump, Mr Nawrocki has accused Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine's leader, of not being grateful enough for Polish help. There are concerns his influence could turn Poland from strong ally to conditional partner if the war drags on.
His slender majority was secured thanks to far-Right voters backing the former historian and amateur boxer in the second round run-off.
Polish far-Right leader Slawomir Mentzen congratulated Mr Nawrocki but told him to put Poland's interests before Ukraine's.
Mr Mentzen is the leader of the Eurosceptic Confederation party, which is against abortion and migration. He scored nearly 15 per cent of votes in round one of the election and came in third.
He took on the role of kingmaker and invited the run-off candidates to join him for separate interviews and to sign an eight-point pledge.
Mr Nawrocki approved the declaration, pledging not to sign any legislation that would raise taxes, ratify Ukraine's potential Nato membership or limit free speech.
The role of president is largely ceremonial but does have some influence over foreign and domestic policy.
Mr Nawrocki is also poised to wield presidential vetoes on legislation to frustrate Mr Tusk's coalition government, which does not have a large enough majority to overturn them.
'I am more critical of Ukraine' than outgoing President Andrzej Duda, of PiS, Mr Nawrocki told Mr Mentzen at the time.
The 42-year-old is not pro-Russian. As head of Poland's Institute of National Remembrance, he oversaw the removal of Soviet-era Red Army monuments, prompting the Kremlin to place him on a 'wanted' list.
But he has vowed to block Ukraine's bid to join the EU because of unresolved Second World War grievances such as a 1942 massacre of Poles by Ukrainian militias.
Viktor Orban, Hungary's prime minister, a long time PiS ally and Putin's closest friend in the bloc, has also vowed to veto Ukraine joining the EU and congratulated Mr Nawrocki on his 'nail-biter' of a victory on Monday.
Mr Nawrocki won support from Polish farmers who claim they are being undercut by cheap Ukrainian food imports after the EU lifted tariffs after the invasion.
Mr Tusk steered Poland back towards the EU after ousting the Eurosceptic PiS from power in 2023.
End over-reliance on the US
Like France's Emmanuel Macron and Germany's Friedrich Merz, he believes that Europe can no longer rely on Washington for its security and wants to end over-reliance on the US.
Poland, which has one of the fastest-growing EU economies, has pledged to raise defence spending to 4.7 per cent of GDP in 2025 and 5 per cent in 2026.
That is not expected to change, with the US grateful for Poland leading the way in exceeding Nato defence spending targets.
But Mr Nawrocki, who was recently welcomed at the White House by Mr Trump, will try to slow Poland moving closer to Europe.
He has already renewed controversial calls for wartime reparations from Nato and EU ally Germany, when German and Polish defence cooperation is vital to secure Nato's northeastern flank.
Marta Prochwicz Jazowska, deputy head of European Council for Foreign Relations, said Mr Tusk's prospects of re-election in 2027 had been damaged.
'As president, Nawrocki will elevate his anti-European, anti-German and anti-migration rhetoric in public discourse while intensifying the anti-Ukrainian sentiment that was exacerbated during the campaign,' she said.
'Ukraine policy will become the second major battleground after Europe.'