How Yankees, Mets collapse has played out in betting odds

New York Times

8 hours ago

Love it or hate it, but New York is never far from the center of attention in the baseball world. The New York Yankees are the biggest name in the sport, and the New York Mets have been a big-spending team since Steve Cohen's ownership started earlier this decade. Right now, both teams are the talk of baseball for all the wrong reasons.
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The Yankees sprinted out to a 35-20 record and later built a seven-game lead in the American League East on May 28, but have been floundering with three separate losing streaks of at least five games and a 22-32 record since June 13. The Toronto Blue Jays have been red hot, going 44-23 since May 28, and have the best record in the AL at 70-51. The Yankees are not only six games behind Toronto, but are in third place, also behind rival Boston.
In Queens, the Mets are in a drastic tailspin. After starting 21-9 and leading the National League East by 5.5 games on June 12 with a 45-24 record, the Mets have lost 12 of their last 14 and are now five games behind the Philadelphia Phillies in the division.
Both teams are still in wild-card spots as of Thursday, but only barely. New York haters are feasting right now.
The betting odds show a similarly drastic picture. The Yankees and Mets were among the top contenders to win the World Series and were clearly favored to win their divisions earlier this season, but now face long odds to do so.
The Yankees were entrenched as the second favorite behind the Los Angeles Dodgers to win the World Series for most of the season. Their odds were as short as +550 for the first half of June. Those odds are more than twice as long now at +1300, with seven teams higher in the odds board to win it all.
The Mets weren't as much of a preseason favorite, but ranked in the top five in World Series futures from Opening Day through August 1. The Mets and Yankees shared the second spot behind the Dodgers at +750 on May 21. Even as recently as the start of this month, after the trade deadline, the Mets and Yankees again shared the same odds at +850 and trailed only the Dodgers. Two weeks later, the Mets are +1600 to win the World Series and have nine teams ahead of them in the odds on BetMGM.
With six playoff spots in each league, the regular season is more forgiving than ever, and simply getting into the playoffs is enough to make any team a contender to win the World Series. That means World Series odds for a team that carries as much weight as the Yankees will be slower to fall. However, division odds are another story. Those have seen more movement for both New York teams. Both were clear favorites at different points in June and now face an uphill battle.
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The Yankees were the preseason favorite to win the AL East, but still had plus odds at +145 on March 25, implying their chances of winning the division were less than 50 percent. As the season started and the Yanks got off to a hot start, they became the clear favorites. When the Yankees built a seven-game lead on May 28, they were -650 to win the AL East.
A week later, with the Red Sox five games under .500 and the Orioles, second in the AL East odds before the season, quickly falling out of the race, the Yankees were -1100 to win the division. Odds of -1100 imply the Yankees had a better than 90 percent chance of winning the division.
Those odds came crashing down over the following two months to where the Yankees are now, six games behind Toronto and a game and a half behind Boston. With +475 odds as of Thursday, the Yankees are given less than a 20 percent chance of winning the division.
Look below to see the meme-stock-like chart for the Yankees' odds to win the AL East.
The Mets' fall in the NL East isn't as far as their Bronx counterparts, but it's also not a pretty picture. Unlike the Yankees, the Mets were not the preseason favorite to win their division. On March 25, the Mets were third at +230 behind the Atlanta Braves (+115) and Phillies (+200). The Braves had a horrendous start to the season and, despite a surge to get above .500 a couple of times in May, have fallen out of the race. The Phillies have been mostly steady, which prevented the Mets from ever having the dominant odds the Yankees had a couple months ago.
Still, the Mets built up a five-game lead in April and again in mid-June. They had the best record in baseball on June 12, and then immediately lost seven games in a row while the Phillies went on a 7-1 tear. The Mets' odds of winning the NL East went from -220 to +120 in two weeks. From that point until the trade deadline, the race stayed close with neither team taking the lead by more than two games.
Some optimism arrived for the Mets at the trade deadline, when they added proven relievers Ryan Helsley, Tyler Rogers and Gregory Soto. However, this most recent rut has flipped the odds strongly in Philadelphia's favor. The Mets' current odds to win the NL East are +475, the longest they've been all season, and, funny enough, match the Yankees' current odds to win the AL East.
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There's still a quarter of the regular season left, but the two New York baseball teams are currently pointing at each other like the Spider-Man meme. Will either of these teams make the comeback and see their odds go from bear market to bull market, or continue to crash?
Betting/odds links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.
(Photo of Juan Soto: Al Bello / Getty Images)
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