C Raja Mohan writes: India should be cautious about Trump reaching out to Russia, China and Europe
Trump's summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Anchorage, followed by talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and European leaders in Washington, has set the stage for a trilateral meeting between Trump, Putin, and Zelenskyy in the coming weeks. A breakthrough may be possible. Behind the scenes, Trump's relentless pressure tactics — on all parties — have underwritten his diplomacy.
In promoting peace in Ukraine, Trump is attempting nothing less than a reset of America's relations with Europe, Russia, and China. For years, Trump has demanded that Europe shoulder more of its own defence burden. Under his pressure, NATO allies have pledged to raise military spending to nearly 5 per cent of their GDP. Whether these promises are kept — and whether they translate into credible military capacity — remains to be seen. For now, Europe remains heavily dependent on the US for security. That dependence has left Europe with little say in shaping peace. European leaders have been reduced to pleading with Trump to improve the terms for Ukraine. They have agreed to lead security guarantees for Kyiv, with the US as a backstop, and to spend $100 billion on American arms for Ukraine. For Trump, peace is also business.
One outcome of peace in Ukraine is a gradual reset in US-Russia ties. Trump has long signalled his desire for a productive partnership with Moscow. Despite repeated attacks from Washington's establishment — branding him a 'Russian asset' — he has persisted. Putin has reciprocated, invoking historic bonds and pointing to possibilities for cooperation. This is not without precedent. Washington and Moscow have alternated between confrontation and cooperation for decades. In World War II, the US allied with Joseph Stalin to defeat Nazi Germany, supplying Moscow with massive 'Lend-Lease' aid. During his Alaska visit, Putin paid homage to the pilots who ferried aid across the Alaska–Siberia air bridge. The 1970s détente produced arms control agreements and joint initiatives in space and regional security. The Soviet collapse opened another decade of close partnership before ties soured in the late 2000s.
For Putin, the question is less about ideology and more about the terms of accommodation. Russia seeks dignity and equality in any settlement. In Alaska, Trump offered just that — public respect and hints of deeper economic cooperation. If Washington reopens the door to Moscow, parts of Europe may follow. Russian energy remains attractive to European industry, and Russian markets still beckon exporters.
Should the thaw hold, expect Moscow's rhetoric to shift — from 'building a post-American order' to working with Washington in managing global stability, a familiar theme from the 1970s and 1990s. Russia relishes its identity as a great power and its presumed role as America's 'co-equal' in world affairs.
Trump's interest in Russia is not purely sentimental. Within his circle, some argue that separating Moscow from Beijing should be a key US goal. Others insist that peace in Europe is essential for focusing on China in Asia. Trump himself hinted at this after the Alaska summit, calling Russia and China 'natural enemies' and blaming the Biden administration for driving Moscow into Beijing's arms — an argument that resonates in Delhi too. This has revived talk of a 'reverse Kissinger'. In the 1970s, Henry Kissinger opened relations with China to counter the Soviet Union. Today, some in Washington dream of flipping Russia to contain China. The analogy is flawed. Unlike then, Moscow and Beijing today are bound in a 'no-limits' partnership, underpinned by strategic, economic, and technological ties. Expecting a sudden break is unrealistic. Still, Trump's outreach could give both Washington and Moscow more room to manoeuvre in dealing with China's growing power.
Trump, however, is not eager to abandon China. He seeks a deal there as well. His reluctance to impose secondary sanctions on Chinese purchases of Russian oil and his repeated praise for Xi Jinping suggest a bigger initiative may be brewing. Speculation is rife that Trump could travel to Beijing in late October, between the ASEAN summit in Kuala Lumpur and APEC in Seoul. China, too, wants a deal that legitimises its status as America's equal. Like Russia, Beijing does not seek perpetual confrontation with Washington. The issue is not ideological incompatibility but the terms of accommodation.
Trump's parallel manoeuvres with Moscow and Beijing recall another Kissinger maxim: Washington should always strive to have better relations with other great powers than they do with one another. Trump seems intent on precisely that.
For India, these shifts pose sobering choices. A 'reverse Kissinger' could leave the major powers enjoying warmer ties with one another than with Delhi. If Trump succeeds in resetting relations with both Moscow and Beijing, India risks being marginalised in the evolving global balance.
Delhi must therefore reboot ties with all major powers — the US, Europe, Russia, and China. It must avoid slipping into permanent conflict with its neighbours, which only invites more meddling by the great powers. India must back diplomacy with long-overdue economic reform and renewed domestic political unity on key national issues. Without internal strength, foreign policy agility will be of little use in managing the current turbulence of great-power politics.
The writer is contributing editor on international affairs for The Indian Express
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
The Hindu
30 minutes ago
- The Hindu
Peace momentum: on the White House meetings and the Ukraine war
The unprecedented multilateral summit at the White House on Monday between U.S. President Donald Trump and a host of European leaders, including Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, just after Mr. Trump's meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday, points to a renewed willingness on all sides to end the Ukraine war. The Alaska summit marked a new start in Mr. Trump's push for conflict resolution, although it did not yield an immediate breakthrough. While Mr. Trump invited Mr. Zelenskyy to the White House to discuss 'the Putin proposal', European leaders, including the British Prime Minister, France's President and the chiefs of the European Commission and NATO, also travelled to Washington, in a strong show of solidarity with Ukraine. Mr. Zelenskyy's visit to the White House, in February, had gone poorly. This time, Mr. Zelenskyy and his European allies were careful not to upset their host. The message from Europe is clear: irrespective of Washington's position, Europe is firmly committed to Ukraine's security. But European leaders also recognise that they lack the capability to continue to back Ukraine in a war it is not winning should the U.S. cut off its weapons supplies to Kyiv. So, the challenge before the French and British leaders was to persuade Mr. Trump — he has already ruled out NATO membership for Ukraine — to offer some form of American support for security guarantees to Ukraine as part of a final settlement. Europe has already begun planning to send a 'reassurance force' to Ukraine. Mr. Trump's comments signalling support for the idea of security guarantee were a small but significant breakthrough. He said Europe would be 'the first line of defence' but did not rule out American involvement, adding that Mr. Putin would accept western security guarantees for Ukraine. The next big question is on where to draw the ceasefire line. Mr. Putin wants all of Donbas and is willing to freeze the frontline in the south. Mr. Zelenskyy and his European partners have so far ruled out any territorial concessions for peace, but all sides are ready to continue the talks. Mr. Zelenskyy should adopt a pragmatic approach, weighing Ukraine's future security against its present battlefield vulnerabilities. Mr. Putin should realise that this may be his best opportunity to end the war that he launched in February 2022. Mr. Trump and the European leaders must now work towards a compromise formula that addresses Ukraine's future security needs and Russia's past grievances. The current momentum for peace should not be squandered.
Indian Express
30 minutes ago
- Indian Express
Bessent says US tariff revenues to rise ‘substantially,' focus on reducing debt
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he expects a big jump in revenues from sweeping tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, and said the money would be used first to start paying down the federal debt, not to give rebate checks to Americans. Bessent, speaking in an interview on CNBC's 'Squawk Box,' said he expected to substantially revise upward his earlier estimate of $300 billion in revenues from the tariffs, but declined to be more specific. Bessent said he had not spoken with Trump about the idea of using funds from the tariffs to create a dividend for Americans, but stressed that both of them were 'laser-focused' on paying down the debt. 'I've been saying that tariff revenue could be $300 billion this year. I'm going to have to revise that up substantially,' Bessent said. 'We're going to bring down the deficit to GDP. We'll start paying down the debt, and then at that point that can be used as an offset to the American people.' The US economy could return to the 'good, low-inflationary growth' of the 1990s, Bessent said, but he blamed higher interest rates for problems plaguing some pockets of the economy, singling out housing and lower-income households with high credit card debt. A cut in the Federal Reserve's key interest rate – which Trump has continually pressed for – could help facilitate a boom or pickup in home building, which would help keep prices down in one to two years, he said. The US Census Bureau on Tuesday reported a small increase in groundbreaking for single-family homes and permits for future construction in July, even as high mortgage rates and economic uncertainty continued to hamper home purchases. Trump's wide-ranging import tariffs have kept the Federal Reserve from lowering interest rates this year, with most central bank policymakers wary of easing borrowing costs until they have more confidence the levies will not rekindle inflation, which has yet to return to the Fed's 2% target. Recent indications of softening in the job market, however, have largely convinced investors that the Fed will cut rates by a quarter of a percentage point when it meets in mid-September. That expectation has helped bring down mortgage rates in recent weeks. Bessent has previously said a 50-basis-point cut in rates was warranted.
Economic Times
30 minutes ago
- Economic Times
UK shelves plan to access US user data from Apple
Synopsis The dispute surfaced at the start of the year with a news report that British security officials had issued the US tech giant with a secret order requiring the creation of backdoor access to view fully encrypted material. Apple challenged the order, which raised fears of electronic spying by national security officials. LONDON: Britain abandoned its demand that Apple provide so-called backdoor access to any encrypted user data stored in the cloud, US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard said Monday. Gabbard indicated London and Washington had resolved their high-stakes dispute over electronic privacy, writing on X that she and President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance spent the "past few months" working with the UK government. "As a result, the UK agreed to drop its mandate for Apple to provide a 'back door' that would have enabled access to the protected encrypted data of American citizens and encroached on our civil liberties," she dispute surfaced at the start of the year with a news report that British security officials had issued the US tech giant with a secret order requiring the creation of backdoor access to view fully encrypted challenged the order, which raised fears of electronic spying by national security officials. The British government reportedly served Apple with what is known as a "technical capability notice" ordering it to provide the access under a sweeping law called the Investigatory Powers Act of 2016, which has been dubbed the snoopers' U.K. Home Office did not respond directly to Gabbard's statement, saying it "does not comment on operational matters, including confirming or denying the existence of such notices.""We have long had joint security and intelligence arrangements with the US to tackle the most serious threats such as terrorism and child sexual abuse, including the role played by fast-moving technology in enabling those threats," the office said. "We will always take all actions necessary at the domestic level to keep UK citizens safe."
