Rand shines against dollar, pound

News24

2 days ago

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The rand strengthened to below R17.70/$ late on Tuesday, reaching levels last seen in October 2024.
The local currency hit R17.6702, before retreating slightly to R17.70 in early evening trading.
It has gained almost three percent over the past month.
As recently as in April, the rand traded above R19.90/$ amid fears of a DA exit from the government of national unity (GNU). At the time, the rand was also hurt by a global sell-off of riskier assets amid the turmoil unleashed by US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs.
'Much of the rand's strength is due to a combination of improved domestic sentiment and external tailwinds,' says Bianca Botes, director at Citadel Global.
'The South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) strong stance on inflation, fiscal optimism following budget clarity, and inflows from foreign investors have all contributed to a more supportive environment for the currency.'
SA's 10-year bond yield fell below 10% for the first time since 2022, signalling growing investor confidence, she adds.
Apart from calm returning to the GNU and the friendly reception of Budget 3.0, the SA Reserve Bank's campaign to lower the inflation target to 3% (from a band of 3% to 6%) has bolstered the rand and bonds.
Lower inflation will be positive for both assets, but a stricter target would also require stricter monetary policy. High interest rates make rand assets attractive to foreign investors looking to earn yield.
Meanwhile, US rate expectations and easing inflation fears are shifting, with the Fed now only expected to delay its rate cut to September.
On Tuesday, the rand also strengthened against the pound, reaching R23.87 — around its best levels since the start of April.
Sterling slipped after new UK jobs data implied further weakness in the labour market, which could influence how quickly the Bank of England cuts interest rates.
British wages rose by a slower-than-forecast 5.2% in the three months to April, pushing sterling down 0.4% against the dollar to $1.3499.
The labour market data "puts a question mark on the hawkish bias that we've seen from the Bank of England," Danske Bank FX analyst Kirstine Kundby-Nielsen said.
The BoE is due to meet next week and is expected to keep the interest rate unchanged. Money market traders are pricing in about 48 basis points of cuts by year-end, up from about 39 bps before the data.
The dollar index, which measures the US currency against six others, was flat to slightly lower at 98.95, not far from a six-week low of 98.35 it touched last week.
The index is down 8.7% this year as investors, worried about the impact of tariffs and trade tensions on the US economy and growth, fled US assets and looked for alternatives.
Trade talks
Traders were waiting for the outcome of talks between Beijing and Washington, which on Tuesday continued for a second day, amid expectations of a trade deal that could further ease trade tensions.
Officials from the world's two largest economies were meeting in London to try to defuse a dispute that has widened from tariffs to restrictions over rare earths.
"The dollar was better bid last night in Europe and Asia and it has come off here so I think we're consolidating," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist, at Bannockburn Forex in New York, until an outcome from the trade talks is announced.
He added that what's at stake in these negotiations are not just tariffs, but also export controls, and "that's going to be the basis for the quid pro quo."
Chandler noted that there are the makings of a deal: US semiconductor chips for China's magnets and rate earths. But what should be noted, he said, is the asymmetry. "China can replace the chips that the US exports easier than we can replace their magnets and processed earths."
US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping spoke by phone last week at a crucial time for both economies as signs of strain emerge from the former's cascade of tariff orders since January.
Investor focus this week will be on the US consumer price index report for May, due on Wednesday. The report could give insight into the impact of tariffs, with investors wary of any flare-ups in inflation ahead of the Fed's policy meeting next week.