The long arm of Trump's new law: From the Politics Desk

NBC News

7 days ago

Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team's latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.
Happy Monday! On this day one year ago, Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race.
In today's edition, we dive into the early financial and political impacts of the 'big, beautiful bill' and how the White House is trying to shift attention away from the Epstein files.
— Adam Wollner
The long arm of Trump's new law
It has been more than two weeks since President Donald Trump signed the 'big, beautiful bill' into law.
But the impacts of what is likely to be the signature legislation of Trump's second term are only starting to be felt, both financially and politically.
Final price tag: The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office released its final score of the sprawling 887-page bill today, Sahil Kapur reports.
The CBO projected the law will add $3.4 trillion to the national debt over the next decade. It found that the law's net spending cuts of $1.1 trillion are outstripped by the $4.5 trillion in decreased revenue, compared with if the measure had not passed.
The law will also 'increase by 10 million the number of people without health insurance' by 2034, according to the CBO.
Latest poll numbers: A new survey released over the weekend showed Republicans have their work cut out for them in selling the law to the public.
Just 39% of U.S. adults said they approved of the 'big, beautiful bill,' according to a CBS News/YouGov poll, while 61% disapproved. That's roughly in line with what other polls found ahead of the legislation's final passage.
The CBS News/YouGov survey also found that a majority (54%) said they thought the law will increase their health care costs and that a plurality (40%) said it would increase their taxes — even thought it extends the tax cuts Trump signed into law during his first term.
And while 61% said they thought the package would help wealthy people, far less said it would help the middle class (28%) and poor people (24%).
That all helps to explain why some Republicans are trying to shift their messaging and cast the bill as a tax benefit for 'working families,' highlighting the move away from taxes on tips and overtime in particular.
In the states: As the law is implemented in the coming months and years, its effects will be felt differently state by state. Adam Edelman notes that many of the biggest political fights stemming from the tax cut and spending are already converging in battleground Nevada.
About 1 in 3 Nevadans are on Medicaid, according to data from the state and KFF, a nonpartisan health policy research group. But unlike some other states, which may be able to shift funds around in their budgets to build financial support for affected residents, Nevada's hands are largely tied. It has no state income tax, and a state constitutional provision requires a two-thirds majority to raise revenue.
Then there are the new law's tax provisions related to tipped employees and gamblers, which will have an outsize effect on a state whose economy relies almost exclusively on casinos and hospitality.
In 2026, Gov. Joe Lombardo — who has walked a fine line between offering praise for certain aspects of the megabill while pushing back against others — is seen as the most vulnerable Republican governor up for re-election. And Nevada's battleground 3rd District, represented by Democratic Rep. Susie Lee, will be the site of a key race in the fight for the House majority.
And in 2028, Nevada will most likely again host critical contests for the White House and the Senate.
Amid Epstein fallout, the Trump administration turns to MAGA's other greatest hits
By Ryan J. Reilly and Henry J. Gomez
Facing backlash from MAGA supporters about the handling of files related to Jeffrey Epstein, President Donald Trump and his administration have released a flood of information on old grievances and issues popular with the base.
Overnight, Trump used his Truth Social platform to attack Sen. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., post a fake artificial intelligence-generated video showing former President Barack Obama being arrested by the FBI and share AI-generated mug shots of a variety of Democratic officials who have served as Republican bogeymen over the years.
Trump also weighed in on another MAGA favorite — the names of sports teams — and threatened to try to block a deal to build a new football stadium in Washington, D.C., unless the Commanders changed their name back to the Redskins. The team dropped that name in 2019, after years of criticism that it was racist.
The intensity of the Epstein conversation has dampened since last week, after the Trump administration had to contend with many of its MAGA supporters who were furious that officials weren't releasing more information about the files. On Friday, Trump sued The Wall Street Journal and Rupert Murdoch after the Journal published an article saying Trump sent a letter to Epstein in 2003 that included a drawing of a naked woman.
By today, many prominent MAGA social media accounts appeared to have moved on from the Epstein issues, focusing instead on some of the other topics the Trump administration has been pushing.
The Justice Department and other agencies released files today that have long been the subjects of conspiracies. But they weren't Epstein documents; they were documents about Hillary Clinton and more than 230,000 pages related to the assassination of the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. Attorney General Pam Bondi has been a particular target of the MAGA base's ire.
'Saying Trump posts random stuff to distract is like saying the sun rises to mess with your sleep schedule,' a former Trump adviser said. 'It's just what it does.'