CPM to probe Nilambur bypoll debacle, vote loss in LDF bastions
The party will focus especially on how Anvar attracted votes from LDF's base as preliminary booth-level data showed a shift of votes that would have otherwise gone to the LDF.
Sources said CPM's state secretariat meeting later this week will discuss the bypoll debacle but the party will wait for the probe results before deciding on corrective actions.
CPM believes that nearly 5,000 votes Anvar secured came from Left strongholds, even if not directly from core party households.
The party is especially concerned about its defeat in key areas like Nilambur municipality, Amarambalam and Pothukallu panchayats as well as the reduced margin in Karulayi, where a large lead was expected.
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Compared to 2021 elections, LDF lost 14,567 votes in the constituency, a drop of 9%. In 2021, the Left-backed independent MLA (Anvar) had secured 81,227 votes but in 2025, Swaraj managed only 66,660 votes. At Swaraj's birthplace, Pothukallu and in Nilambur municipality—where he is a voter— LDF trailed behind UDF.
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Anvar won over 100 votes in four booths and more than 2,000 votes in Amarambalam panchayat. In Left-ruled Karulayi, he secured over 100 votes in seven booths and more than 1,800 votes in the panchayat. In Nilambur municipality, he gained over 2,000 votes.
While LDF's high-profile candidate M Swaraj secured the party's core votes, some party sympathizers did not fully support him. Sources said Anvar, who served as an MLA for nine years, had built goodwill among these sympathizers, which affected the vote share, even though CPM had instructed its cadres to avoid him.
CPM state secretary MV Govindan had acknowledged that many votes Anvar secured should have gone to LDF. With local body and assembly elections coming up, CPM plans to identify weaknesses and stop vote leakage, which will be crucial for winning individual wards. Despite the excitement around Swaraj's candidacy, especially within Left circles, it did not bring in the extra votes needed for an LDF win in Nilambur.
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