Cost-of-living news every Aussie has been waiting for as Reserve Bank makes huge call on inflation: What you need to know
Andrew Hauser, the RBA's deputy governor, said the underlying inflation rate of 2.7 per cent for the June quarter was a number closer to the mid-point of the Reserve Bank's two to three per cent target.
'The data yesterday were very welcome, I could stop there,' he said.
'We were looking for more evidence that inflation was moving sustainably back to the mid-point and we've had another piece of that jigsaw yesterday.'
The Reserve Bank on July 8 surprised financial markets by leaving the cash rate on hold at 3.85 per cent.
At the time, Governor Michele Bullock said the March quarter's underlying inflation rate of 2.9 per cent was still too high, despite being within the RBA band.
But new Australian Bureau of Statistics inflation data, released on Wednesday, showed underlying inflation falling to the lowest level since December 2021, during the aftermath of Covid lockdowns.
This trimmed mean measure is the RBA's preferred yardstick.
Headline or consumer price index inflation fell again to just 2.1 per cent, the lowest since March 2021.
Both numbers have firmed up the prospect of a rate cut on August 12, that would see the cash rate fall back to 3.6 per cent for the first time since May 2023.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
The Guardian
5 hours ago
- The Guardian
Australia is suddenly flush with forest-friendly recycled toilet paper firms: what's the state of ply?
The Australian brand Who Gives a Crap (WGAC) has recently launched its toilet paper products in the UK supermarket chain Tesco. Having begun as a home delivery service, its recycled and 'sustainable' products are now stocked in Woolworths, Aldi and independent supermarkets such as IGA in Australia. Despite the growing presence of WGAC and other brands offering recycled products, the supermarket shelves remain dominated by plush, virgin-pulp toilet paper. So what are the prospects for further changes in the market? And what are the ethical and environmental options for consumers? Most mainstream toilet paper is made from virgin pulp – wood fibre sourced from hardwood tree plantations. 'They're grown for single-use products, without any environmental benefit,' says Jennifer Macklin, a senior research fellow at Monash University's Sustainable Development Institute. 'Recycled paper uses less energy and water to produce than virgin or bamboo products,' Macklin says. The head of sustainability at WGAC, Elissa Foster, says globally more than 1m trees are cut down each day to produce traditional toilet paper, citing 2022 research from Edge Environment, commissioned by the organisation. Sign up: AU Breaking News email Planting trees for low-value products such as toilet paper in place of old-growth forests contributes to the loss of habitat for species such as the yellow-tailed black-cockatoo, says Estelle Van Hoeydonck, a conservation campaigner at Zoos Victoria, which runs the Wipe for Wildlife campaign. 'Opting for recycled toilet paper is one tangible action Australians can take to support wildlife,' she says. Recycled toilet paper is made from post-consumer waste paper, diverting material from landfill, reducing demand for virgin pulp and supporting a circular economy, Foster says. Encore Tissue, an Australian company that produces the icare brand, was featured on Dr Karl's How Things Work earlier this year. It estimates its recycling operations save 138,000 trees, 185 gigawatt hours of electricity and 128,000 litres of water a year. But Macklin says it is just one part of the wider picture. 'Recycled toilet paper is a positive option when feasible – but we don't want people to feel guilty. Choices like reducing food waste have far greater environmental value than switching toilet paper brands.' Bamboo is often marketed as an eco-friendly alternative – including by WGAC – because it grows rapidly, reaching maturity in three to five years compared with 10 to 40 years for other trees commonly harvested, Foster says. She says it is 'a great alternative to wood-based paper', but agrees with independent experts that recycled paper is the more sustainable option. 'Bamboo is a substitution strategy,' Macklin says, 'less preferable than reusing existing materials.' Nevertheless, Macklin says she chooses bamboo for my household. 'After testing several options, that was the compromise that worked for us.' One reason is that recycled toilet paper is still not as soft as virgin or bamboo. It may also disintegrate less effectively, affecting plumbing. The consumer advocacy group Choice warned in its 2025 toilet paper review that some recycled brands did not break down quickly enough. Yes – for both online and in-store brands. WGAC reported a 21% year-on-year growth in Woolworths over the past 12 months, with rising interest beyond early adopters. The icare products, which are sold exclusively through supermarkets, have also consistently increased sales over the past few years. Experts agree that the more consumers embrace recycled options, the more likely it is supermarkets will expand their ranges. But availability is still patchy. Woolworths carries several recycled brands, including from WGAC, icare, Naturale and Emotions (online only). Coles lists just one icare product. Aldi does not stock recycled toilet paper year-round but has sold limited editions of WGAC products. Foster says WGAC has helped raise awareness and meet demand for recycled toilet paper in a more convenient way. 'We witnessed this demand rise in 2020 due to #toiletpapergate [the panic buying spree when Covid hit].' An icare spokesperson said WGAC's rise had not negatively affected its shelf presence. 'We try to match pack sizes, quality and prices with non-sustainable brands like Quilton or Kleenex.' Other home-delivery startups like Yarn'n, Oo Bamboo, About a Dog and Emotions, have followed similar models, often linking each purchase to a 50% charitable donation.
The Guardian
9 hours ago
- The Guardian
Australia shouldn't fear the AI revolution – new skills can create more and better jobs
It seems a lifetime ago, but it was 2017 when the former NBN CEO Mike Quigley and I wrote a book about the impact of technology on our labour market. Changing Jobs: The Fair Go in the New Machine Age was our attempt to make sense of rapid technological change and its implications for Australian workers. It sprang from a thinkers' circle Andrew Charlton and I convened regularly back then, to consider the biggest, most consequential shifts in our economy. Flicking through the book now makes it very clear that the pace of change since then has been breathtaking. The stories of Australian tech companies give a sense of its scale. In 2017, the cloud design pioneer Canva was valued at $US1bn – today, it's more than $US30bn. Leading datacentre company AirTrunk was opening its first two centres in Sydney and Melbourne. It now has almost a dozen across Asia-Pacific and is backed by one of the world's biggest investors. We understand a churning and changing world is a source of opportunity but also anxiety for Australians. While the technology has changed, our goal as leaders remains the same. The responsibility we embrace is to make Australian workers, businesses and investors beneficiaries, not victims, of that change. That matters more than ever in a new world of artificial intelligence. Breakthroughs in 'large language models' (LLMs) – computer programs trained on massive datasets that can understand and respond in human languages – have triggered a booming AI 'hype cycle' and are driving a 'cognitive industrial revolution'. ChatGPT became a household name in a matter of months and has reframed how we think about working, creating and problem-solving. LLMs have been adopted seven times faster than the internet and 20 times faster than electricity. The rapid take-up has driven the biggest rise in the S&P 500 since the late 1990s. According to one US estimate, eight out of 10 workers could use LLMs for at least 10% of their work in future. Yet businesses are still in the discovery phase, trying to separate hype from reality and determine what AI to build, buy or borrow. Artificial intelligence will completely transform our economy. Every aspect of life will be affected. I'm optimistic that AI will be a force for good, but realistic about the risks. The Nobel prize-winning economist Darren Acemoglu estimates that AI could boost productivity by 0.7% over the next decade, but some private sector estimates are up to 30 times higher. Goldman Sachs expects AI could drive gross domestic product (GDP) growth up 7% over the next 10 years, and PwC estimates it could bump up global GDP by $15.7tn by 2030. The wide variation in estimates is partly due to different views on how long it will take to integrate AI into business workflows deeply enough to transform the market size or cost base of industries. But if some of the predictions prove correct, AI may be the most transformative technology in human history. At its best, it will convert energy into analysis, and more productivity into higher living standards. It's expected to have at least two significant economy-wide effects. First, it reduces the cost of information processing. One example of this is how eBay's AI translation tools have removed language barriers to drive international sales. The increase in cross-border trade is the equivalent of having buyers and sellers 26% closer to one another – effectively shrinking the distance between Australia and global markets. This is one reason why the World Trade Organization forecasts AI will lower trade costs and boost trade volumes by up to 13%. Second, cheaper analysis accelerates and increases our problem-solving capacity, which can, in turn, speed up innovation by reducing research and development (R&D) costs and skills bottlenecks. By making more projects stack up commercially, AI is likely to raise investment, boost GDP and generate demand for human expertise. Despite the potential for AI to create more high-skilled, high-wage jobs, some are concerned that adoption will lead to big increases in unemployment. The impact of AI on the labour force is uncertain, but there are good reasons to be optimistic. One study finds that more than half of the use cases of LLMs involve workers iterating back and forth with the technology, augmenting workers' skills in ways that enable them to achieve more. Another recent study found that current LLMs often automate only some tasks within roles, freeing up employees to add more value rather than reducing hours worked. These are some of the reasons many expect the AI transformation to enhance skills and change the nature of work, rather than causing widespread or long-term structural unemployment. Even so, the impact of AI on the nature of work is expected to be substantial. We've seen this play out before – more than half the jobs people do today are in occupations that didn't even exist at the start of the second world war. Some economists have suggested AI could increase occupational polarisation – driving a U-shaped increase in demand for manual roles that are harder to automate and high-skill roles that leverage technology, but a reduction in demand for medium-skilled tasks. But workers in many of these occupations may be able to leverage AI to complete more specialised tasks and take on more productive, higher-paying roles. In this transition, the middle has the most to gain and the most at stake. There is also a risk that AI could increase short-term unemployment if investment in skills does not keep up with the changing nature of work. Governments have an important role to play here, and a big motivation for our record investment in education is ensuring that skills keep pace with technological change. But it's also up to business, unions and the broader community to ensure we continue to build the human capital and skills we need to grasp this opportunity. To be optimistic about AI is not to dismiss the risks, which are not limited to the labour market. The ability of AI to rapidly collate, create and disseminate information and disinformation makes people more vulnerable to fraud and poses a risk to democracies. AI technologies are also drastically reducing the cost of surveillance and increasing its effectiveness, with implications for privacy, autonomy at work and, in some cases, personal security. There are questions of ethics, of inequality, of bias in algorithms, and legal responsibility for decision-making when AI is involved. These new technologies will also put pressure on resources such as energy, land, water and telecoms infrastructure, with implications for carbon emissions. But we are well placed to manage the risks and maximise the opportunities. In 2020, Australia was ranked sixth in the world in terms of AI companies and research institutions when accounting for GDP. Our industrial opportunities are vast and varied – from developing AI software to using AI to unlock value in traditional industries. Markets for AI hardware – particularly chips – and foundational models are quite concentrated. About 70% of the widely used foundational models have been developed in the US, and three US firms claim 65% of the global cloud computing market. But further downstream, markets for AI software and services are dynamic, fragmented and more competitive. The Productivity Commission sees potential to develop areas of comparative advantage in these markets. Infrastructure is an obvious place to start. According to the International Data Corporation, global investment in AI infrastructure increased 97% in the first half of 2024 to $US47bn and is on its way to $US200bn by 2028. We are among the top five global destinations for datacentres and a world leader in quantum computing. Our landmass, renewable energy potential and trusted international partnerships make us an attractive destination for data processing. Our substantial agenda, from the capacity investment scheme to the Future Made in Australia plan, will be key to this. They are good examples of our strategy to engage and invest, not protect and retreat. Our intention is to regulate as much as necessary to protect Australians, but as little as possible to encourage innovation. There is much work already under way: our investment in quantum computing company PsiQuantum and AI adopt centres, development of Australia's first voluntary AI safety standard, putting AI on the critical technologies list, a national capability plan, and work on R&D. Next steps will build on the work of colleagues like the assistant minister for the digital economy, Andrew Charlton, the science minister, Tim Ayres and former science minister Ed Husic, and focus on at least five things: Building confidence in AI to accelerate development and adoption in key sectors. Investing in and encouraging up skilling and reskilling to support our workforce. Helping to attract, streamline, speed up and coordinate investment in data infrastructure that's in the national interest, in ways that are cost effective, sustainable and make the most of our advantages. Promoting fair competition in global markets and building demand and capability locally to secure our influence in AI supply chains. And working with the finance minister, Katy Gallagher, to deliver safer and better public services using AI. Artificial intelligence will be a key concern of the economic reform roundtable I'm convening this month because it has major implications for economic resilience, productivity and budget sustainability. I'm setting these thoughts out now to explain what we'll grapple with and how. AI is contentious, and of course, there is a wide spectrum of views, but we are ambitious and optimistic. We can deploy AI in a way consistent with our values if we treat it as an enabler, not an enemy, by listening to and training workers to adapt and augment their work. Because empowering people to use AI well is not just a matter of decency or a choice between prosperity and fairness; it is the only way to get the best out of people and technology at the same time. It is not beyond us to chart a responsible middle course on AI, which maximises the benefits and manages the risks. Not by letting it rip, and not by turning back the clock and pretending none of this is happening, but by turning algorithms into opportunities for more Australians to be beneficiaries, not victims of a rapid transformation that is gathering pace. Jim Chalmers is the federal treasurer
The Sun
9 hours ago
- The Sun
Hidden impact of UK's shoplifting epidemic revealed as crime wave costs every household £150 a year through price hikes
BRITAIN'S shoplifting epidemic is pushing the UK's retail sector into a 'vicious cycle', with rampant theft fuelling out-of-control inflation. The Sun on Sunday can reveal that the crime wave is costing households almost £147 a year as stores hike prices to recoup their losses and pay for extra security measures. 7 Britain's shoplifting epidemic is pushing the UK's retail sector into a 'vicious cycle', with rampant theft fuelling out-of-control inflation Credit: Getty 7 A looter is captured on shops' CCTV 7 A shoplifter is pictured in a store Credit: Getty 7 A crook pockets stolen items before leaving this shop Credit: Darren Fletcher With inflation jumping to a worrying 3.6 per cent this week — and with Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey under pressure to slash interest rates to stimulate growth — experts warn that shop theft is pushing inflation ever higher. Economist Dr Kamran Mahroof, associate professor at the University of Bradford, said: 'We are stuck in a vicious circle, with high prices provoking people to steal at the same time as shoplifting forces stores to raise the cost of their goods, exacerbating inflation. Billions of pounds worth of stock is being stolen, but it doesn't stop there. 'Security tags are being put on pretty much everything nowadays, from baby formula to butter and cheese, and these tags have to be bought from a supplier and then they have to be attached, and time costs money. Costs retailers billions 'Rampant theft is also causing staff to go off sick because they are fed up with being intimidated and assaulted, and that is an additional cost to the retailer. 'Shoplifting is not the only cause of inflation and the most significant factors are rising production costs, geopolitical tensions and other external shocks. 'But you can't turn a blind eye to the significance of this crime as someone needs to pay for it and the burden is falling on the consumer.' Chancellor Rachel Reeves has come under increasing pressure to act on spiralling inflation after prices rose by more than expected in the year to June. In 2023, shoplifting added £133 to the cost of an average household's shopping bill for the year, according to the Centre For Retail Research. The Sun on Sunday's own research suggests the new cost is nearly £147 — a ten per cent increase. There were 516,971 shoplifting crimes last year, according to the Office for National Statistics, which is a 20 per cent increase on 2023 when 429,873 offences were recorded. I pinched £30m worth of goods as UK's most prolific shoplifter to get my daily hit of heroin - I've been jailed 28 times In its annual crime survey of major retailers, the British Retail Consortium found that violence and abuse against shop workers rose by 50 per cent, with more than 2,000 incidents recorded on average each day. BRC head of communications Tom Holder added: 'Shoplifting costs retailers billions a year, and on top of that there are myriad anti-crime measures that take place — everything from security guards to security tags, CCTV and all the rest. There's also crime costs including vandalism and employee theft that do not come under shop theft or security measures. 'The total cost is about £4.2billion across the entire retail sector. 'The amount lost is a large chunk of the profit margin. And that pushes up costs for everyone.' The Consortium is calling for the Government to crack down on the crime epidemic to prevent prices rising even further. Tom added: 'The increase in shoplifting is concerning for two reasons. First, it pushes up the cost of shopping for everyone. It can make the difference for some households between what they can afford and what they can't. 'The other side is that shoplifting is a major trigger for violence against staff, particularly if they intervene. 'Most theft isn't because Granny can't afford something so she slips a few choice items in her handbag. A large chunk of this is organised crime where people come in and go straight for the high-value goods — the alcohol, cigarettes, electronics and phones — with a group of four or five others, often wielding weapons. 'This crimewave is not being caused by a cost-of-living crisis, with people thinking the only way I can survive is to steal. 'The real rise has been in organised crime and that's not a crime of desperation, it's a crime of opportunities.' Our shoplifting probe has found that major High Street chains are now using alarm tags and stickers, each costing around £50, to protect everything from meals-for-one to make-up brushes. And Ann Summers has become the latest retailer to give its staff body cameras to combat thefts. 7 Rachel Reeves has come under increasing pressure to act on spiralling inflation after prices rose by more than expected in the year to June Credit: EPA 7 Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is under pressure to slash interest rates to stimulate growth Credit: Reuters Tesco Express workers in Redhill, Surrey, are attaching security devices to pizzas costing £4.75 as well as Tesco Finest ready meals retailing at £5.25. The alarms go off if someone removes the tags or leaves the store without paying. One exasperated employee told us: 'If they can flog it, they'll take it, even pizzas.' 'Any shop is a target' Meanwhile, at a Sainsbury's Local in crime-ravaged Croydon, South London, trendy Beavertown Neck Oil Session IPA beers selling for £2.25 are also fitted with security tags, as are cans of Sainsbury's gin and diet tonic costing £1.70. Down the road at Boots, entire displays of make-up products worth as little as £3 per item are fitted with anti-theft tags, and three security guards patrol the store. Shelves of confectionery are protected behind specially installed plastic security grills. Experts warn that users of sites such as Vinted, eBay, Facebook Marketplace and TikTok may be unwittingly buying stolen goods. Andrew Goodacre, CEO of the British Independent Retailers Association, is calling for internet giants to do more to stop organised gangs selling their wares online. We are stuck in a vicious circle, with high prices provoking people to steal at the same time as shoplifting forces stores to raise the cost of goods, exacerbating inflation Dr Mahroof He said: 'Previously, it was grocery stores that sold tobacco, alcohol and food that were worst affected. 'Now it seems that any shop is a target. Toy shops, children's clothes shops, hardware stores, health stores — they are all having to take measures to try to reduce the amount of stock they are losing. They are smaller so they can keep a closer eye on things, but they are also more vulnerable to the criminals who seem increasingly emboldened. 'We used to talk about two per cent shrinkage [stock losses] and it's certainly a lot more than that now. 'Organised crime is getting more organised when it comes to shoplifting, and shops are being attacked because the goods are so easy to sell on online platforms to unsuspecting shoppers. We need a way of addressing that. 'The online platforms need to be more rigorous. 'Are these items preloved or pre-stolen? That would be our question. And we think a lot of it is probably stolen.' All the stores mentioned were contacted for comment. SECURITY TAGS ON MONOPOLY AND BOOZE BOARD games including Monopoly and Cluedo were fitted with two forms of security alarms when the Sun on Sunday visited stores this week. They were protected by alarm tags and stickers in TGJones, formerly WHSmith, in Croydon, South London. It comes after serial thief Omar Innis, 32, was spotted by West End cops carrying board games and toys last month. It was the seventh time he had struck in over a month, nicking £1,300 of goods. At Westminster Magistrates' Court, Innis, of North London, pleaded guilty to theft and was jailed for 26 weeks. A spokesman for TGJones said: 'The high street is facing increased levels of crime and we have been taking action to ensure our stores remain welcoming places for our colleagues and customers.' 7 Shopkeeper Ben Selvaratnam in Croydon Credit: Paul Edwards
