If Micah Parsons misses Week 1, how much will it hurt the Cowboys?

Yahoo

05-08-2025

Yahoo Sports' Jason Fitz, senior NFL writer Frank Schwab and senior sports betting analyst Ben Fawkes discuss how the potential point spread between Dallas and Philadelphia could shift if the four-time Pro Bowler were to miss the opening game of the season. Hear the full conversation on 'Inside Coverage' - and subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube or wherever you listen.
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Video Transcript
The line has been Eagles -7 for week one.
Eagles -7, and that's been pretty steady since the lines were released.
There were a few at -6.2 those first few days.
It's basically been held steady at -7.
If you go to bed at MGM right now, it's still Eagles 7 point favorites over the Cowboys.
If we just said today, hey, Micah Parsons is out week one for whatever reason, Jerry just says he's not going to play week one.
What would the line look like?
I, I, I think it would have to move at least to 9.
Like, I think Micah is worth at least 2 points in the line.
Yeah, I think so.
Uh, 9 would be high, I would say, only because it's difficult for defensive players to move the line that much, true, right?
So the, A lot of what you're looking for is kind of what that guy's value is above replacement, right?
It's not just Micah Parsons in a vacuum, it's how much better he is.
And for a defense, right, how much do they miss not having him?
Like, if it's a TJ Watt, the Steelers are obviously not as good a defense.
They still have a really good defense outside of just TJ Watt.
So there's a handful of defensive players I'd probably say, let's say five to ten.
Who might move the line slightly.
I did this exercise actually a couple of years ago and asked oddsmakers, uh, the skill position players and defensive players who had moved the line, and Micah was among those, uh, I think he was about 0.6, 0.7, uh, in there.
I checked in with a couple of oddsmakers yesterday.
And they're right around there, 0.5 point, maybe a point at max.
I think this would probably go to 7.5 if he was ruled out and potentially, you know, maybe the total moves a little bit, right?
Maybe moves up because the Cowboys, again, you're assuming a worse defense, Eagles better offense, that type of thing.
But it also depends where the lines are, right?
And so 7 is one of the most key numbers in the NFL, so they're always hesitant to move off of that.
There, I think it's been 7.5, and a couple books has been bought back to, it's basically 7, like you said, across the market.
So I think it would.
Go to 7.5, one oddsmaker told me maybe to 8.
I don't think it would get that high, um, as to two points.
So I think it's about a half, maybe a point at max for Micah's value against the spread.
I probably just overshot it because I've seen that defense without Micah Parsons.
It's not good.
And I just, I can imagine, I already think if it does stay in that 75 to 8 range, I assume they're going to get flooded with the Eagles money if Micah doesn't play in that game.
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