
Tariffs: Just An Inconvenience or an Overdue Payments Push?
In the midst of a bustling Money 20/20 event in Amsterdam, Bill Deng, CEO and Founder of XTransfer, spoke to FinextraTV about how the current state of geopolitics — specifically, US tariffs — actually has a positive spin on the growth of the payments sector. While it may be inconvenient and troublesome for certain bigger companies, Deng believes it has created a level of speed, innovation and adaptability within more agile, smaller companies that may not have occurred otherwise.
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Telegraph
an hour ago
- Telegraph
Britain's carmakers ‘the most vulnerable in Europe'
Britain's 'precarious' car industry is at greater risk than any other in Europe as the global market is reshaped by competition between the US and China, a new report warns. In an outlook for 2025, researchers at consultancy AlixPartners said they expected car sales to grow by just 1pc around the world with growth in China and Asia offsetting sluggish demand in the West. This, along with the impact of US tariffs, is expected to force car companies to slash costs and production as they also divert cash towards the development of electric models. But the researchers warned that within this tough environment, Britain was 'potentially the most disadvantaged market of all' because of its high energy costs, 'fragmented' supply chains, skills shortages and 'political and economic uncertainty'. Andrew Bergbaum, of AlixPartners, said the majority of cars made in Britain were also exported – leaving the domestic industry exposed as manufacturers look to cut back output. He said: 'The polarisation of the car market between the US and China is going to hit Europe very hard – the Europeans are stuck between two big players. 'And unfortunately, the UK is a highly disadvantaged market in a highly disadvantaged region.' Britain's energy prices, for example, would remain high even after recently-announced support from the Government, he added.


Telegraph
an hour ago
- Telegraph
Brace yourselves homeowners, there's no chance of another rate cut this year
Markets – from stocks to bonds, and even oil – are exhausted. Seemingly inured to chaos, these bellwethers of global sentiment are consistently pricing in the idea that everything will work out in the end. Covid, inflation, Ukraine, mounting and unsustainable government debt, things keep going wrong and nobody is willing to accept it until they have no other choice. The patently obvious inflation spike of 2022 was declared 'transitory' until it simply couldn't be any more, central banks seemingly fearful to acknowledge it lest they accidentally manifest it. Donald Trump is currently learning that wishing something to be the case does not make it so. On Monday night he declared a ceasefire had been agreed between Israel and Iran, and celebrated the end of 'The 12 Day War'. By the time he woke up on Tuesday the two nations had already violated it. At 12:38, on our live coverage of the situation, we posted: Trump says Israel won't attack Iran. At 12:44, the blog read: Reports of explosions in Tehran. So frustrated by his inability to mend relations between Israel and Iran over just a few days, Trump complained to reporters on the White House lawn that the pair 'don't know what the f--- they're doing', showing a level of frustration I certainly can't remember from a serving president at least publicly. Not that he's offering much clarity himself – he has now reneged on his threat of regime change two days after suggesting it was almost inevitable. Around a fifth of the world's oil and gas moves through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran's parliament has voted to block, but prices have fallen dramatically as investors bet it won't happen. At home, a raft of increased costs have just hit employers from National Insurance to minimum wage rises, while we all feel the costs in our pockets as inflation jumped above 3pc and shows no sign of returning to target. Yet markets continue to price in two rate cuts from the Bank of England this year, seemingly because they would really like that to happen. No amount of optimism will change the realities of the situation. Andrew Wishart, an economist at investment bank Berenberg, is one of the few willing to put his head above the parapet and predict the end of rate cuts in 2025. Last week – before the US bombed Iran – Mr Wishart was already certain that inflation would stay around the 3.5pc mark, forcing the Bank of England's hand and ruling out any cuts before Christmas. Alongside increased business costs, he was concerned about government spending and stubborn services and food price inflation. He also raised the spectre of oil price volatility, suggesting that a spike to $85 a barrel would keep inflation at 4pc. Were Iran to follow through on its threat to block the Strait of Hormuz, other analyst estimates have put the oil price at $130-$150. Of course, Britain's bigger problem in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine was about the supply of gas rather than oil, but, as Chris Wheaton, an oil and gas analyst at broker Stifel, explained, that risk is present here, too. Were liquefied natural gas (LNG) production from Qatar and the UAE to be disrupted, he predicts the energy price cap in the UK could more than double to £3,000-£4,500 per year, which would be 'economically and political disastrous'. With its recent embarrassing experience of underestimating an energy price crisis, it stands to reason the Bank of England will err aggressively on the side of caution. Even if inflation hovers around 4pc rather rising back to the highs of 2022, consumers will be hurt. Those long-trailed 'time lags' are finally set to hit the last of the mortgage market, as those remaining homeowners are pulled off their cheap five-year rates secured at record-low rates in the pandemic. For example, a homeowner with a £500,000 mortgage forced to remortgage at 4.5pc today would see their repayments rise by nearly £800 a month, assuming they were previously paying 1.5pc. Over a year, that's nearly £10,000 – a devastating hit to the nation's personal finances. Of course, everything I've said could age like milk. Everything may just work out; tensions ease, inflation lowers, rate cuts continue. I certainly hope so. But just in case, I would start tightening your purse strings.


Reuters
2 hours ago
- Reuters
EUROPE A fragile ceasefire is good enough for markets
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland Some 24 hours on from when U.S. President Donald Trump announced a truce in the Middle East - despite being disturbed by some Iranian rocket fire and an Israeli vow to respond - investors seem to be keeping faith that the worst is over. Although the global stock rally appears to have petered out for now, and crude oil looks to have found a floor, there's not been much retracement of those sizeable market moves, at least so far. A big part of that may be that even at the height of the hostilities, the security of Iran's oil infrastructure and the vital tanker thoroughfare, the Strait of Hormuz, was never seriously in doubt. A buoyant Trump even took to social media to say China can now, again, purchase Iranian oil, forcing the White House to swiftly clarify there was no change in stance with regard to U.S. sanctions. Trump has also found himself at odds with his own Defense Intelligence Agency, which said in an initial report that U.S. bomber strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities at the weekend had only set the country's capabilities back by a month or two. Trump said Iran's nuclear program had been "obliterated". That raises questions about whether the U.S.'s or Israel's goals in the air war were actually realised, and about what comes next. We're very likely to hear more from Trump on the Middle East as he flies into The Hague for a NATO summit today, where defence spending will be a primary focus. Developments in the Middle East are likely to remain the center of market attention throughout the European trading day, with very little on the corporate or macro calendars today. Later, U.S. data is limited to new home sales. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will be back on Capitol Hill to give testimony before the Senate, although having done the same to the House the previous day, there's not likely to be much that's new. In political developments north of DC, Zohran Mamdani, a 33-year-old state lawmaker and self-described democratic socialist, was poised to win New York City's Democratic mayoral primary in a surprising upset over former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo. Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday: -NATO summit -US new home sales (May) -Fed Chair Powell testifies before Senate Banking Committee Trying to keep up with the latest tariff news? Our new daily news digest offers a rundown of the top market-moving headlines impacting global trade. Sign up for Tariff Watch here.