John Curtice gives verdict on Corbyn-Sultana party threat to Keir Starmer
A senior Labour source told the New Statesman that it was 'not inconceivable' that Starmer, Health Secretary Wes Streeting and Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood could all be booted out by their constituents in 2029.
At the last election, Starmer's vote almost halved, Streeting's majority was reduced to just 528 votes while Mahmood's vote fell by 53%, all facing pro-Palestine independent challengers.
Asked whether the trio were at risk, Curtice, of Strathclyde University, told The National: 'Of course it's not inconceivable, just look at the size of their majorities and look at how far Labour's vote's fallen.'
He added that his assessment of the data showed it 'wasn't clear that Labour were making much of a recovery' in constituencies with large numbers of Muslim voters.
Pro-Palestine independents took four seats at the last election, most notably Labour bigwig Jonathan Ashworth's defeat at the hands of Shockat Adam in Leicester South.
But Curtice said that the Corbyn-Sultana party could face challenges along the way, highlighting what he identified as mistakes during Corbyn's time as Labour leader.
READ MORE: SNP to press ahead with Palestine recognition vote as Labour 'bargaining' with Israel
He said: 'Corbyn clearly has the ability to enthuse a section of the electorate. But does he have the ability to provide leadership?'
He pointed to Corbyn's stance on Brexit in the run-up to the 2019 vote, when he said he would grant a second referendum but backed neither Leave nor Remain.
'On an issue that was clearly polarising the electorate and when Boris Johnson was clearly milking the votes on one side, that was just politically utterly the wrong strategy,' said Curtice.
'Corbyn is a sincere politician with a number of very clear beliefs which he can communicate well, he's got that art and he's got that art much more than Starmer does. But leadership is also about being able to take folk who are not your natural supporters with you.'
He also expressed doubt about the party's organisational capacity, noting their 'original announcement they couldn't manage to coordinate on'. Sultana appeared to have surprised Corbyn by announcing the launch of the new party, which he only confirmed the day after.
Curtice added: 'The crucial question is now: will the fight next year's local and devolved elections? Are they going to be up and ready? At the moment, they're engaging on a consultation about a name.'
He said that 'time was of the essence' if the party wanted to fight next year's devolved and local elections, which include London – a city which should be 'prime territory for Corbyn'.
Corbyn said: 'Up and down the country, there is huge appetite for the policies that are needed to fix society in 2025: public ownership, wealth redistribution, housing justice, and a foreign policy based on peace and human rights.'
"For too long, people have been denied a real political choice. Not anymore. 600,000 people have already signed up to build a real alternative to inequality, poverty and war. This is just the beginning. We are an unstoppable movement for equality, democracy and peace — and we are never, ever going away.'
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