
Who will save the Liberal Democratic Party?
For the first time since its founding in 1955, the party must run a government with minority control of both houses of parliament, suffering back-to-back electoral defeats. The party is fragmented, its base is cracking and the old mechanisms used for staying in power are insufficient in the modern era. There is no denying that the LDP's ship is sinking and the crew needs saving.
The party is now faced with two fundamental questions: what tasks must it accomplish to restore its political dominance and who is actually capable of accomplishing them?
The LDP also has numerous tasks ahead:
The first is to regain its base. While the LDP is a big tent party with politicians representing a range of center-left to right-wing ideas, the median policy platform has almost always been on the conservative side. But when the time came to pick a successor to Shinzo Abe, the LDP opted first for Yoshihide Suga, then for Fumio Kishida, neither of whom are from the party's conservative camps.
Kishida further alienated the LDP's conservative base with the punishments he meted out in 2024 in response to the factions' money scandal. When public opinion worsened under Kishida, the party decided to go with a reform-minded candidate and picked Shigeru Ishiba. The moves failed to garner support from the public and they alienated many supporters.
As a result, the LDP will need to regain its conservative base, many of whom have looked instead to the Democratic Party for the People, Sanseito and Nippon Ishin no Kai. The LDP must now woo them back. Success in this effort does not mean embracing populist dog whistling; rather, it means rallying behind a conservative leader who can outshine the likes of DPP's Yuichiro Tamaki and Sanseito's Sohei Kamiya.
The second task for the LDP will be capturing the attention of the public. The old method of stump speeches and loudspeaker vans on the streets will not cut it anymore. With more voters turning to social media and video-sharing sites for political content, the LDP must fundamentally rethink its practices. Additionally, the standard for male-dominated LDP candidate lineups will not work, as there was a marked rise in the number of women who won in this recent election. The LDP must look for improved ways of recruiting strong female candidates and subsequently giving them meaningful opportunities to elevate their political stature.
But these efforts will not mean anything if the LDP cannot accomplish the third task: formulating coherent policies that actually work to improve the lives of the average Japanese resident. The only thing that has saved the LDP up to this point is that none of the opposition parties have presented a viable alternative with coherent policy platforms. However, the public has now shown that they are increasingly willing to assume risk in backing the opposition. The LDP will not only need to create actionable policies, the various factions within the party must rally behind them.
This leads to the last task: restructuring the party from within. When Kishida unilaterally upended the LDP's factional system, he did so without a substitute system ready to implement. Absent another mechanism for corralling the few hundred lawmakers, the decision fueled in-fighting and made the party less effective at a time when it needed to regain the public's trust. The situation has not improved under Ishiba.
To rectify this, the party will need someone capable of managing internal politics and driving the reestablishment of a functional policy and power structure. The party's leader will not be able to do this by himself or herself; rather, it will take a trusted right hand who can manage that effort.
So, who is capable of accomplishing these tasks for the LDP? Let's take a look at the prominent names in the debate.
Taro Aso
Former Prime Minister Taro Aso's name will continue to come up in discourse because of his long-standing prominence in the LDP. The grandson of famed postwar Prime Minister Shigeru Yoshida and the richest politician in parliament, Aso has significant influence inside the party and among the business community. Some LDP members may now look to Aso to use whatever influence he has left in the twilight of his career to pull things back together.
While Aso may still have power to wield, it will only be useful within the party architecture. Aso's connections to old guard politics may be helpful in piecing together elements of a fragmented party and rekindling some support from the LDP's traditional base, but it will not capture the attention of the broader public. Aso has not shown a willingness to evolve to match present-day sensibilities and it is unlikely that he is prepared to do so now.
Shinjiro Koizumi
Koizumi's name has floated around the LDP as the potential next-generation leader since he first came onto the political scene in 2009. Son of the popular and effective former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, the 44-year-old politician has benefited from his polished looks and political legacy in staying relevant. This is partly why Ishiba turned to Koizumi to take over the agriculture minister role in May as a last-ditch effort to address soaring rice prices.
But despite all of Koizumi's energy and effort in his Cabinet and subcabinet postings, he has no meaningful achievements to show for it. The public has continued to lose confidence that Koizumi can develop and implement effective policies, meaning that even if the party decided to throw its weight behind him, it would be for naught. Koizumi's inability to tackle important issues and to manage intraparty politics stand to exacerbate the LDP's woes further.
Takayuki Kobayashi
Nicknamed 'Kobahawk' as a play on words based on his name and political leanings, the former economic security minister has shown potential for taking on the LDP's dire situation. As a former finance ministry official, he has practical policy experience and he is popular among the LDP's conservative base. Further, his relative youth and nonpolitical family background positions him to rebrand the party in ways that other LDP politicians cannot.
The lingering question for Kobayashi is whether he even wants to take the helm of a sinking ship. He is still young for a politician and can afford to wait for another opportunity when the circumstances are more favorable; after all, he may prefer to pursue his own desired policy agenda rather than being forced to manage the messy problems that already exist. Instead of attempting to seize the opportunity now, he may throw his weight behind another conservative party leader and earn a Cabinet posting to continue building his credentials.
Sanae Takaichi
Former economic security minister Sanae Takaichi appears to be the LDP's most viable option. She was already close to winning the last LDP leadership race and she has not hidden her ambitions for the country's top job. Other boons for her is that she was a protege of Shinzo Abe and that she is a staunch conservative who cites Margaret Thatcher (the U.K.'s 'Iron Lady') as a role model. Further, she does not carry any of the baggage associated with the LDP's former factions as she operated as an independent within the party. As a bonus for the LDP, if the party selects Takaichi to be its next leader, they will have the distinction of elevating the first woman to become prime minister of Japan.
While Takaichi can potentially accomplish the first two tasks needed to save the LDP, the second two will be more difficult. Takaichi is well-positioned to regain the LDP's conservative base and to capture the attention of the public, but will she be able to implement an effective policy agenda and restructure the party at the same time? She has not had to manage in-fighting among the party heavyweights and former factions, and she will need a trusted second-in-command to help her do so. Her biggest question is who that may be.
Michael MacArthur Bosack is the special adviser for government relations at the Yokosuka Council on Asia-Pacific Studies. He previously served in the Japanese government as a Mansfield fellow.

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles


Nikkei Asia
2 hours ago
- Nikkei Asia
Japan PM Ishiba's approval rating hits new low of 32%: Nikkei poll
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is expected to make a final decision on his future as early as August. (Photo by Uichiro Kasai) Nikkei staff writers TOKYO -- The approval rating of Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's cabinet hit 32%, the lowest since his government's October 2024 launch, in the latest Nikkei/TV Tokyo survey. On the most suitable person to be the next prime minister, former Minister in charge of Economic Security Sanae Takaichi and Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, both of Ishiba's ruling Liberal Democratic Party, tied for first place at 20% each. They were followed by Yuichiro Tamaki, leader of the Democratic Party For the People, at 9%. Ishiba came in fourth at 6%.


Kyodo News
7 hours ago
- Kyodo News
SDF request led to nuclear threat scenario in Japan-U.S. exercise
TOKYO - The Japanese Self-Defense Forces strongly urged the U.S. military during a joint command post exercise last year to mirror any nuclear threat made by China with one of its own, government sources said Sunday. The United States ultimately complied with the request in the simulation exercise that envisioned a potential invasion of Taiwan by Beijing, raising concerns that Japan's push to invoke nuclear deterrence could exacerbate tensions between the United States and China. The request, the first of its kind in a Japan-U.S. joint exercise, was based on Japan's policy of reliance on the U.S. nuclear umbrella for protection, suggesting that both Japanese government and SDF officials see Chinese nuclear saber-rattling as a real possibility in the event of a Taiwan contingency. The Defense Ministry did not respond to a request for comment. Japan and the United States named China as a hypothetical enemy for the first time in the computer simulation exercise "Keen Edge" in February last year. During the exercise, the U.S. Navy set up temporary bases in the Nansei island chain in the Kagoshima and Okinawa prefectures in the initial stages of a Taiwan contingency, with the SDF providing logistical support. Later in the drill, the scenario assumed that China hinted at the use of nuclear weapons against the United States and Japan, but the U.S. side initially did not take any measures due to concerns over escalating the situation further, according to the sources. Adm. John Aquilino, commander of the United States Indo-Pacific Command, ultimately acquiesced to repeated requests by Gen. Yoshihide Yoshida, chief of the SDF Joint Staff, for "the United States to counter with nuclear threats to defend Japan." Neither Beijing nor Washington used nuclear arms in the simulation. The two countries announced last December their first guidelines on "extended deterrence," often described as the U.S.'s commitment to using its full range of nuclear and conventional capabilities to defend Japan amid China's growing military activities and North Korea's missile and nuclear development.


Kyodo News
7 hours ago
- Kyodo News
Nobel panel, A-bomb survivors urge youth to carry torch of peace
TOKYO - The Norwegian Nobel Committee and Nihon Hidankyo, Japan's leading group of atomic bomb survivors, jointly urged younger generations at an event Sunday in Tokyo to "carry the torch" for peace by listening to the stories of survivors and keeping up the momentum for nuclear disarmament. "The nuclear taboo is under threat, and the hibakusha (atomic bomb survivors) are aging. In not too many years, we will no longer have the testimonies of those who were there, those who could tell this story," said Norwegian Nobel Committee chair Jorgen Watne Frydnes. Nihon Hidankyo, also known as the Japan Confederation of A- and H-Bomb Sufferers Organizations, was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize last year for its efforts to achieve a nuclear-free world through witness testimony. The symposium at Sophia University's Yotsuya Campus marked the first time the Nobel committee has traveled to a laureate's country to cohost an event. In a joint press conference, Terumi Tanaka, the 93-year-old co-chair of Nihon Hidankyo, expressed hopes that the awarding of the prize would encourage Japanese people to raise their voices "strongly enough to move the government" to take a more proactive stance in calling for the abolition of nuclear weapons. Recognizing that the future belongs to the youth, Tanaka said "I hope that going forward, young people will take an interest, engage with sensitivity, and listen to the hibakusha. I want them to reach the point of understanding that (nuclear weapons) must never be allowed to exist." Frydnes, 40, once again lauded the dedication of Nihon Hidankyo, noting that since the awarding of the Nobel Peace Prize to the group, many movements and individuals have reengaged on the issue of nuclear disarmament. "Hopefully (the 80th anniversary) will be a turning point where world leaders are listening to all those people around the world who say, we cannot live in a world where we are living in a nuclear prison waiting for collective annihilation," he said. Frydnes, who arrived in Japan on Monday, visited Hiroshima and Nagasaki earlier this week where he met with atomic bomb survivors and local activists working toward nuclear abolition. "Hearing about these places is different from seeing them in person, so we are grateful that he came," Tanaka said, calling the Nobel committee's visit to Japan an "honor." The U.S. atomic bombs were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in the final days of World War II in August 1945, killing an estimated 214,000 people by the end of the year and leaving numerous survivors grappling with long-term physical and mental health challenges. At a conference later in the day on responding to the threat of nuclear arms, keynote speeches by Frydnes, Tanaka and Michiko Kodama, assistant secretary general of Nihon Hidankyo, were followed by a panel discussion on nuclear disarmament involving Asle Toje, vice chair of the Norwegian Nobel Committee, and Japanese academics. The event was attended by around 700 people, according to the university.