Number of asylum applications to Sweden drops 30 percent
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Between January and June this year, 3,750 people applied for asylum in Sweden compared to 5,357 in the same period of 2024, a fall the agency put down to a new law which came into force that means that a person whose asylum application has been rejected cannot submit a new application until they have been outside Sweden (and usually the Schengen zone) for at least five years.
"Sweden's attractiveness as a recipient country continues to decline in line with the political reforms implemented in the area of migration. The EU's asylum and migration pact is also expected to lead to fewer asylum seekers in the coming years," Maria Mindhammar, the agency's director general, said in a press message.
The agency is now predicting that around 6,500 apply for asylum in 2025, 500 fewer than it predicted in its last forecast. The agency then expects the number of applications to fall further to 5,500 in 2026, a reduction of 1,300 compared to the former forecast, from 6,000 to 5,000 in 2027 and from 5,500 to 4,500 in 2028.
When it comes to individual countries, the agency noted that the number of Syrians applying for asylum in Europe had fallen 60 percent in the first six months of this year, following the fall of the Assad regime in December, which had helped lead to a 35 percent reduction in applications to Sweden from Syrians in the same period. Applications from Afghanistan, Turkey and other Middle East and North African countries have also been lower than expected.
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As The Local has already reported, the agency also said in the forecast that it expected a marked slowdown in the number of citizenship applications it can process due to the additional security checks imposed last year.
These figures, however, exclude people from Ukraine applying to live in Sweden under the Temporary Protection Directive.
Sweden expects approximately 9,000 people to seek protection under the Temporary Protection Directive in Sweden this year, the same as in its last prognosis. In 2027, and it expects 7,000 people will seek temporary protection.
'Our main scenarios assume that the war in Ukraine continues with approximately the same intensity and geographical spread as today. But the situation is unpredictable and we also take into account that the conflict may develop in a way that leads to more or fewer people seeking protection in Sweden,' Eric Ramstedt, Planning Director at the Swedish Migration Agency said in a press release.
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The European Union has extended the Temporary Protection Directive March 2027, and it is currently uncertain if it will receive another extension at that date.
Approximately 45,000 people are currently living in Sweden under the directive and the Migration Agency Board expects approximately 20 percent of them to return to Ukraine, with the remaining 36,000 people expected to apply for a residency permit on another basis, leading to a a growing burden on the agency.
"The consequence of this would be a sharp increase in the number of applications in other types of cases, especially asylum and the work permit cases," Ramstedt said.
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