Tommy's Travel Forecast: Erin update, pattern change
TROPICAL TRACKER
In the Eastern Atlantic Basin, a new tropical wave could develop into our next named storm. The tropics are waking up! As of now, the National Hurricane Center forecasts a low area of potential development (yellow polygon).
However, the wave is entering a favorable environment for intensification.
Closer to home, a pattern change will bring several days of rain chances, which could temporarily cool us down from time to time.
Locally, high temperatures will still be near triple-digits for most of the workweek.
There is a low-end flood risk for most of Texas and the Deep South on both Wednesday and Thursday.
We are now at the point in the summer where the severe weather risk across CONUS is generally low, with a few daily thunderstorms possible.
Beyond the next week, the Climate Prediction Center forecasts warmer-than-normal temperatures in the south and cooler-than-normal temperatures in the north. Above-normal precipitation is in the forecast for most of the West Coast, with a below-normal forecast in the Midwest.
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Boston Globe
12 minutes ago
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Erin overshot every model to reach ‘extreme' rapid intensity. What is making these storms so threatening?
The hurricane, now a Category 4 storm, is regenerating as it expands into a powerful force of nature. Erin was located just east of the Bahamas on Monday and had sustained winds of 140 miles per hour and tropical storm-force winds reaching out 230 miles, the National Hurricane Center said Advertisement 'Erin's intensification was pretty remarkable,' said Andy Hazelton, a hurricane researcher with the University of Miami. 'It got better organized [Friday] night and then just exploded overnight (Friday).' Advertisement Erin had a very tight core, which allowed the winds to accelerate quickly like a figure skater closing their arms, rotating faster around a central point. Another way to look at it is when you have a large carousel at a theme park versus a smaller one in a children's park. Circulating around a central point is faster with the smaller carousel. Erin was a small storm that simply blew up around that smaller, tighter rotation. 'Extreme rapid intensification' was exactly what happened in 2023 with Hurricane Lee, which shattered the 35-mile-per-hour standard for rapid intensification by increasing winds by 80 miles per hour. The number of hurricanes undergoing "extreme rapid intensification" is increasing. Climate Central The ocean's rising temperatures, ranging from 84 to 86 degrees Fahrenheit (2 to 4 degrees above average), have provided the necessary fuel for storms to dramatically strengthen, a consequence of a warming planet, forecasters and researchers say. 'It was in an environment with extremely warm waters and minimal wind shear, and there is even warmer water ahead of it,' said Marshall Shepherd, director of the University of Georgia's atmospheric sciences program and former president of the Boston-based American Meteorological Society. 'That extra heat comes back to manifest itself at some point, and one of the ways it does is through stronger hurricanes,' Shepherd said. Atlantic sea-surface temperatures where Hurricane Erin has been traversing are running 1 to 2 degrees Celsius (3 to 4 degrees Fahrenheit). Tropical Tidbits 'We've seen a lot of rapid intensification cases in recent years: Milton, Helene, Ian, Ida, Laura, Dorian, Michael, etc.,' Hazelton said. 'Research is ongoing, but studies do suggest RI will be more likely in a warming climate, even if the total number of hurricanes remains about the same.' Shepherd noted that a Advertisement Erin went through explosive intensification Friday into Saturday. Hot seas, low wind shear, tight core all allowed an 80 mph jump in wind speeds in less than 24 hours! Growing in numbers The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season saw seven hurricanes rapidly intensify, the most since 2020, when 10 of the 13 hurricanes underwent rapid intensification multiple times during their lifespans. Similarly, last hurricane season delivered 34 individual episodes of rapid intensification, nearly doubling the average number during a typical hurricane season in the past decade. Hurricanes Beryl, Helene, Milton, Isaac, Kirk, Rafael, and Oscar all underwent rapid intensification multiple times. Seven hurricanes went through rapid intensification during the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season - the most since 2020. NOAA About 80 percent of major hurricanes undergo rapid intensification throughout their development. The combination of low wind shear and plenty of hot, moist air from the warm ocean water is like flicking a match onto gasoline — the atmosphere ignites. As oceans continue to warm, the fuel source will just continue to grow more potent for storms to explode. In the case of Hurricane Erin, it struggled early on as a tropical storm to gain enough strength through a large plume of Saharan dust. But after shaking the moisture-wicking dry air, Erin entered more favorable conditions for quick strengthening, exploding into a very intense storm. Rapid intensification is more common than we think with hurricanes, especially with global warming. Climate Central These kinds of storms have increased in number in recent decades. Since the early 1980s, a tropical storm or hurricane is now five times more likely to rapidly intensify, growing to one in three storms now likely to see an explosive build-up. That brings us to what climatology tells us and what might be coming down the pike. August typically sees a massive leap in rapid intensification episodes, with the most occurring in September, when sea-surface temperatures across the Atlantic are at their highest for the season. 'Mid-to-late August is exactly when we start paying super close attention to the waves coming off Africa… that's when the Saharan dust also starts to go away,' no longer impeding a storm's development, said Brian McNoldy, a senior researcher with the University of Miami. Advertisement If the chances and frequency of rapidly intensifying hurricanes keep increasing, then naturally so do the chances for more landfalls at greater strength. The percentage of all Atlantic rapid intensification events each month during a hurricane season. CSU Rapidly intensifying storms make hurricane forecasting so vital, especially during the height of hurricane season, which ranges from August to October, and peaks on Sept. 10. Although predicting when a storm will experience such intensification is extremely difficult, forecasting accuracy has dramatically improved since the early 2000s. 'Around 2010, the idea that you could have 70% detection of rapid intensification at 24 hours (as the National Hurricane Center did last year) would have been unheard of,' said Hazelton. Meteorologist and Globe correspondent Chris Gloninger and Marianne Mizera of the Globe staff contributed to this report. Ken Mahan can be reached at
Epoch Times
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New Tropical Disturbance Forming Behind Hurricane Erin, Federal Forecasters Say
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USA Today
an hour ago
- USA Today
National Hurricane Center watching next potential storm: What to expect
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