Most Accurate Pollster Finds New Lead 2028 Democratic Candidate
Based on factual reporting, incorporates the expertise of the journalist and may offer interpretations and conclusions.
Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content.
American pollster AtlasIntel found in its most recent survey that former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg is leading the pack for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination.
Newsweek reached out to Buttigieg's talent agency via email outside normal business hours and to former vice president Kamala Harris via online form.
Why It Matters
The veteran pollster and election analyst Nate Silver touted AtlasIntel as "top-rated" and the most accurate pollster of the 2024 presidential election.
This month's survey from AtlasIntel comes as the Democratic Party has drawn criticism for lacking a clear message following Harris's loss to President Donald Trump in November.
The party's lack of direction has led to a number of high-profile clashes between its more progressive members and establishment leaders heading into the 2026 midterm elections.
What To Know
The AtlasIntel poll surveyed a total of 3,469 U.S. adults and was conducted from May 21 to May 27 and had a margin or error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
Among those who identified as Democrats, 31.5 percent ranked Buttigieg as their top choice for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination.
New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, one of the most progressive members of the party, came in second place with 19.4 percent and Harris ranked third with 16.6 percent of the vote.
Other top candidates included Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey (10.4 percent), California Governor Gavin Newsom (7.1 percent), Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro (4.8 percent) and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer (3.7 percent).
Among Republican voters, 37.3 percent said they would want Vice President JD Vance to be the party's 2028 presidential nominee, followed by State Secretary Marco Rubio at 18.7 percent.
Donald Trump Jr. secured 8.8 percent of the vote and Florida Governor snagged 7 percent. But 15.6 percent of Republican voters said they would choose "none of the above," according to the poll.
U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris is joined by Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg as she delivers opening remarks during a plenary meeting with Association of Southeast Asian Nations leaders in the Loy...
U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris is joined by Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg as she delivers opening remarks during a plenary meeting with Association of Southeast Asian Nations leaders in the Loy Henderson Room at the State Department on May 13, 2022 in Washington, DC. MoreWhen respondents were asked which party they would most likely vote for if the midterm elections were held today, 50.9 percent said they would pick a Democratic candidate and 41.7 percent said they would choose a Republican.
Around 7.1 percent of respondents said they didn't know how they would vote, and 0.4 percent said they would not vote at all.
What People Are Saying
During a Substack Live Interview published on May 13, Pete Buttigieg said of a potential presidential bid: "There are times I follow that process and decided to run, and there are times I followed that process and decided not to run — and the process can lead you to surprising places," adding that "any kind of decision process there is a long way off."
Harris, speaking about her plans earlier this year while visiting sites impacted by the Los Angeles wildfires, said: "My plans are to be in touch with my community, to be in touch with the leaders and figure out what I can do to support them...I am here and would be here regardless of the office I hold, because it is the right thing to do, which is to show up in your community and thank the folks who are on the ground."
What Happens Next
Candidates are likely to wait until after the 2026 midterm elections to declare their intention to run, but speculation about the field of candidates will remain—and most likely ramp up—in the months ahead.
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