Super Bowl LIX matchups, analysis and prediction

Los Angeles Times

06-02-2025

NEW ORLEANS — Los Angeles Times NFL writer Sam Farmer breaks down the Super Bowl LIX matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and the two-time defending champion Kansas City Chiefs. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. PST Sunday and will be televised by Fox (Channel 11 in the Los Angeles area) and streamed by Tubi:
Protection is a problem for Kansas City. Patrick Mahomes was sacked more this year than any other quarterback. He started getting the ball out quicker toward the end of the season but he isn't turning over the ball. He hasn't been intercepted since the Buffalo game in mid-November. The Eagles can cover anyone. The cornerback tandem of Quinyon Mitchell and Darius Slay is smothering. Covering Travis Kelce will be a big challenge, but Cooper DeJean is a remarkable rookie. The ability of Mahomes to extend plays and improvise is what scares defenses. He and Kelce have a seemingly telepathic connection. EDGE: Eagles
The Chiefs are a pass-first team, so they don't run a lot. It's pretty noticeable that they're more effective with Kareem Hunt carrying the ball. Kansas City has some good run blockers up front, but they were really drafted to protect the quarterback. Generally, the Eagles have been solid against the run. Jalen Carter is tremendous in the middle of that defensive line, and fellow tackle Jordan Davis is best at holding the point of attack at the line of scrimmage. Linebacker Zack Baun is terrific in all aspects. This Eagles' defense is significantly better than two years ago. EDGE: Eagles
The Eagles get A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith in one-on-one situations and take their shots. Brown runs a lot of slants. Smith is among the NFL's best route runners. The key for Kansas City will be making Jalen Hurts hesitate and second guess. It's not so much about blitzing him. Hurts rarely throws to the middle of the field. Chiefs corner Jaylen Watson missed part of the season with an injury but has come back in the playoffs and he's made a difference, and corner Trent McDuffie is outstanding. The pass rush picked up in the second half of the season. EDGE: Chiefs
Kansas City is going to have to adjust to slow that inside zone that the Eagles love to run. So much of what Saquon Barkley does is bursting through the middle of the line then bouncing outside. The Chiefs did a solid job against the run this season, but not as much lately. Chris Jones is in the backfield a lot, and fellow defensive tackle Mike Pennel is reliable against the run. Overall, the Chiefs are well coached and in the right position to play the run, and they tackle well so you don't see a ton of yards after contact. EDGE: Eagles
Kansas City kicker Harrison Butker missed four games during the season because of an injury, and the Chiefs cycled through replacement kickers. Punter Matt Araiza has a big leg but not a lot of touch, so he's not great at stopping the ball on a dime. Special teams aren't great for Philadelphia, either. The Eagles were burned on a fake punt in the NFC title game. Their coverage teams are serviceable but kicker Jake Elliott is a concern. EDGE: Chiefs
Kansas City's Andy Reid is on the Mount Rushmore of NFL coaches. He's the first to win back-to-back Super Bowls and then get back to the mountaintop for a third year in a row. He's a master when he has extra time to game plan. Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is masterful in drawing up effective schemes. Eagles coach Nick Sirianni still needs to win the big one, but he was smart and flexible enough to lean increasingly on the ground game. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has assembled a dominating Eagles unit. EDGE: Chiefs
LANDON DICKERSON, guard: Dickerson, the right guard, has filled the void left by Jason Kelce as the emotional leader of the best offensive line in football. He figures to see a lot of Chiefs' defensive wrecking ball Chris Jones.
NOLAN SMITH, defensive end: At 238 pounds, Smith isn't big but does a good job of setting the edge, and he's quick enough to get to the quarterback. He had four sacks in three playoff games, so he seems to have found another gear.
BRANDON GRAHAM, defensive end: The longest-tenured player on the team, Graham made a pivotal strip sack in Philadelphia's Super Bowl win over New England. He's a sentimental favorite, and fans are hoping he has another signature play in him.
COOPER DeJEAN, defensive back: The versatile DeJean is a rookie sensation who is likely to line up in the slot and therefore should see a lot of Travis Kelce. An injury sidelined DeJean for the first four weeks but the defense is different with him.
JAKE ELLIOTT, kicker: Elliott has been uncharacteristically shaky this season, and Eagles fans are hoping the game doesn't come down to a field goal at the end. Before this year, he had built a reputation as a clutch performer.
JALEN HURTS, quarterback: The Chiefs are likely to draw up something that at least slows Saquon Barkley. So Hurts needs to keep them honest by throwing the ball effectively. He was fantastic when he previously faced K.C. in the Super Bowl.
NIKKO REMIGIO, returner: In the last two playoff games, Remigio has had big returns to set up scores. Special teams could wind up being the X-factor in this Super Bowl, and Remigio is an explosive talent who can break open a game.
LEO CHENAL, linebacker: Chenal has a knack for making big plays. He blocked a field goal on the last play of the two-point win over Denver, blocked a field goal against Houston in the playoffs, and blocked a PAT in the Super Bowl last year.
MIKE CALIENDO, guard: The Eagles are so tough in the interior of their defensive line, Caliendo will have his hands full. He hadn't played much until he finally became a starter during this season. He needs to have his best game at the biggest moment.
CHRIS JONES, defensive tackle: Everything the Chiefs do defensively is based on Jones in the middle, against the run and pass. They move him around to take advantage of favorable matchups, and Philadelphia has the NFL's best offensive line.
KAREEM HUNT, running back: You normally don't think about the running back with the Chiefs, but against Philadelphia with that pass rush, Kansas City needs Hunt to take some heat off the passing game. He's a good blocking back too.
TRENT McDUFFIE, cornerback: The Eagles have an elite receiving tandem in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, so McDuffie will be a key component to the defense. He's Kansas City's best corner, and could be a problem for Jalen Hurts.
As long as the Eagles don't fall behind in a big way early, they should be able to control the game by running. If they're relegated to throwing, that's a problem. The game could hinge on that factor. A.J. Brown creates matchup problems for Kansas City, and Saquon Barkley is a nightmare for anybody. Even though it's ill-advised to bet against Patrick Mahomes, and nobody is as experienced as the Chiefs at winning close games, Philadelphia is the more complete team. This one is super close down the stretch with Philadelphia winning by a field goal. EAGLES 27, CHIEFS 24