Jonathan Groff would be the first person to win Best Actor in a Musical consecutively
Prior to Groff, five men were Tony nominated for Best Actor in a Musical two years in a row, but didn't emerge victorious:
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Gregory Hines in 1980 for Comin' Uptown and 1981 for Sophisticated Ladies
George Hearn in 1983 for A Doll's Life and 1984 for La Cage aux Folles (the latter of which resulted in a win)
Patrick Wilson in 2001 for The Full Monty and 2002 for Oklahoma!
Michael Cerveris in 2006 for Sweeney Todd and 2007 for LoveMusik
Brian d'Arcy James in 2023 for Into the Woods and 2024 for Days of Wine and Roses
Groff may be at a disadvantage due to the fact that Just in Time missed out on a Best Musical nom. To this day, the last time someone managed to win this category despite their show not having a corresponding bid for Best Musical nor Best Revival was Barry Bostwick for The Robber Bridegroom way back in 1977. Although given how well Just in Time did by scoring six nominations overall (including Gracie Lawrence surprisingly showing up in Best Featured Actress in a Musical), it might've been close.
One important factor that may give Groff a serious leg up over his competition is that he's playing real-life musician Bobby Darin. We've seen in the past how much those kind of roles have been catnip for Tony voters.
In 2006, John Lloyd Young won for his portrayal of Frankie Valli in Jersey Boys. In 2010, Levi Kreis won for his portrayal of Jerry Lee Lewis in Million Dollar Quartet. In 2014, Jessie Mueller won for her portrayal of Carole King in Beautiful. In 2019, Stephanie J. Block won for her portrayal of Cher in The Cher Show. In 2021, Adrienne Warren won for her portrayal of Tina Turner in Tina. In 2022, Myles Frost won for his portrayal of Michael Jackson in MJ. In 2024, Maleah Joi Moon won for playing a fictionalized version of Alicia Keys in Hell's Kitchen.
The rest of this year's Best Actor in a Musical lineup includes Jeremy Jordan in Floyd Collins (third place), Tom Francis in Sunset Boulevard (fourth place), Andrew Durand in Dead Outlaw (fifth place), and James Monroe Iglehart in A Wonderful World (sixth place).
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