The Qatar Weekly Update (QWU) – Part Of The Qatar Monitor Project (QMP) – No. 29, July 25, 2025
1. MEMRI Daily Brief No. 817, Rising Again To The Historical Moment: "It is far more difficult to do this when your Islamist enemies – Erdoğan, Qatar, and now Al-Sharaa, aka Al-Jolani – pretend to be your allies. There is no propaganda trick that they would not play to pretend to be America's friends. By now, Qatar's trick is well known: Create a problem, like supporting the Taliban for years up to their takeover of Afghanistan with American casualties, then help move American troops to safety, in what Trump called the 'the greatest foreign policy humiliation' in U.S. history. Qatar does this everywhere on the planet. It supports Hamas, which committed the atrocities of October 7, and then presents itself as a mediator. Qatar supports every Islamist terrorist organization against its Westernized opponents." By Yigal Carmon, July 22, 2025.
2. MEMRI Special Dispatch No. 12085, The Qatar Air Force Monitor (QAFM) Project – Part II, July 18, 2025.
3. Reagan's Secretary of Education Joins Qatar's Payroll, The Free Press, July 22, 2025.
4. Why Al-Jazeera Should Be Designated As A Foreign Terrorist Organization, Gatestone Institute, July 21, 2025.
5. The Dangerous Illusion Of Friendship With Qatar And Other Hostile 'Allies," JNS, July 18, 2025.
6. Qatargate: Israeli Police Will Travel To Serbia For Legal Deposition For 'Qatargate' Suspect Einhorn – Report, The Jerusalem Post, July 20, 2025.
7. Turkey-Qatar Alliance Seen As Growing Threat To Israel, Israel Hayom, July 17, 2025.
* Yigal Carmon is Founder and President of MEMRI.
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Following the 12-day June 2025 war between Israel and Iran, there have been calls in Iran to carry out preemptive strikes against Israel using ballistic missiles or nuclear bombs. In a July 12, 2025 article in the ideological daily Vatan Emrouz, analyst Amir Abbas Nouri discussed the possibility that the attacks against Iran by Israel and the United States will resume, asserting that an Iranian 'preemptive strike [against Israel] is being considered more seriously than ever by the military commanders and the political elements in Iran, as a preemptive step to an Israeli attack against Iran.' Others in the Iranian regime have called for Iran to attack Israel with a nuclear bomb. On July 9, 2025, Majlis National Security Council member Abolfazl Zohrevand said: 'We must be able to build as many nuclear bombs as we want in less than 24 hours, and to equip our missiles with tactical nuclear warheads.' 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Analyst Amid Abbas Nouri In 'Vatan Emrouz' Article: One Of The Important And Effective Steps And Suggestions [That Has Emerged] From This War In Creating Permanent Deterrence Is A Pre-Emptive Action By Iran's Armed Forces, Aimed At Foiling A Possible Strike By The Zionist Regime On July 12, 2025, the ideological daily Vatan Emrouz featured on its front page an article by analyst Amir Abbas Nouri which said that should an Israeli attack appear imminent, Iran must carry out a preemptive strike against Israel's decision-making centers in order to thwart the aggression, turning the threat into an opportunity and finishing the conflict while simultaneously establishing long-term deterrence. Nouri wrote that in the recent conflict, Iran did not make use of its deterrence capabilities such as the resistance axis groups and blocking the Strait of Hormuz, but that Hamas and the Houthis – which he asserted had delivered painful blows to Israel over recent days – as well as the Iraqi militias alongside Iran's ability to strike American bases in the region with its ballistic missiles, are all deterrent capabilities at Tehran's disposal that it can use in the future. Below is a translation of key excerpts from his article: 'One of the questions that has been brought up publicly these days by politicians and media personalities is whether the Israeli and American military operations against Iran will continue, and whether the ceasefire will be violated by these two regimes? ... One outlook is that Israel and even American will soon resume military attacks against Iran. According to this outlook, Israel aims to achieve the goals that it failed to achieve during its 12 day attack, and it will also try to attack new targets in Iran. According to this view, the main issue on Netanyahu's agenda during his [July 2025] visit to Washington was to convince [President] Trump to continue the attacks and to ensure America's participation in them when necessary. The experts who hold this view say that it is not known when Iran and America will resume their attacks against Iran, but it will likely take place within a few weeks or within a month or two. 'By contrast, [there is] a second group that says that at least in the coming months or one or two years, the [Zionist] regime will not attack Iran militarily. Those same analysts and experts say that Israel attacked Iran on the grounds that it is close to obtaining a nuclear bomb, and the green light it received from Trump for carrying out the attack was also based on the timing of this assertion. Accordingly, after Iran's nuclear facilities were attacked by America, the claim that Iran is close to obtaining nuclear weapons is no longer valid. [Those who uphold] this view believe that due to Iran's missile attacks against the occupied territories [i.e. Israel] and the great damage caused by these attacks, Israel will not launch another attack until it improves its air defense system and is certain of its ability to foil Iranian [missile] attacks, and the process of improving its multi-layer air defense system will take months. 'These experts say, on the other hand, that the [Zionist] regime and America aim to cointinue the project of weakening Iran by other means. A ceasefire in Gaza, advancing the Abraham Accords, and enacting the [JCPOA] snapback sanctions are among the actions taken by the Zionist regime and America meant to increase pressure and weaken Iran. 'The response of the Iranian people to the first attack by the [Zionist] regime and America was different than the CIA and Mossad assessment, and the Zionist regime and America are thus trying to intensify the sanctions [against Iran] in order to create an atmosphere of bitterness among Iranian society, so that in the event of resumed attacks against Iran, the plan to create broad public frustration will bear fruit. According to this approach, in the period of time between the ceasefire and the resumption of [Zionist] regime and American attacks against Iran, [their] intelligence and security agencies will act to carry out a series of actions aimed at undermining stability and creating chaos in Iran, similar to the events of fall 2022 [the 'Woman, Life, Freedom' protests that broke out after Jina Mahsa Amini was killed by Iranian modesty police]. In addition, in the context of these steps, they will try to advance their assassination projects. 'Accordingly, this group of experts believes that in the aftermath of the 12-day attack, the [Zionist] regime and America would rather apply economic, political, and security pressure to Iran, until it is time to resume the military strikes. According to this outlook, Netanyahu has convinced Trump that Iranian society might rise up and protest, and it is preferable to carry out the second attack only once the response of the Iranian public – unlike during the 12 day attack – will be aimed against the Islamic regime. In fact, the central project of Netanyahu and Trump is regime change, and afterwards the dismantlement of Iran, and this can only manifest if the military attacks precede protests and domestic conflicts in Iran. These two perspectives are the main topic of discussion regarding the possibility of renewed military attacks against Iran. What they have in common is certainty there will be another military attack against Iran by the Zionist regime and America. Where they differ is only with regard to its timing. '...[Iran's] Deterrence Capabilities: During the 12 days of fighting, Iran barely used any of its deterrence capabilities, particularly not the resistance front [proxies throughout the region] or its control of energy flow [i.e. oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz]. In the event of continuation or escalation of the war, these aspects will certainly be used. Thus, any policy or action that will give the enemy a realistic assessment regarding the effectiveness of these capabilities will affect the project of continued fighting. In recent days, Hamas has succeeded – using precise operations – to deal meaningful personnel losses to the [Zionist] regime army. This proved that despite the claims and assessments of Netanyahu and the Zionist regime's army, Hamas is still active in Gaza and is still capable of carrying out large operations against the regime. Also Yemen, during the past week, has managed to advance another step in the naval blockade of the regime. It attacked three or four ships belonging to companies that have begun to trade with the Zionist regime through the Mediterranean Sea. 'According to the reports, out of all the ships that were attacked, two were sunk. The Zionist regime and America have so far demonstrated an inability to restrain Yemen. Undoubtedly, their central goal in Yemen is to eliminate the commanders and leaders of the resistance, and particularly the Houthi leaders, headed by Sayyed Abdulmalik Al-Houthi. Thus far, they have failed in achieving this goal, but they certainly continue to avance the assassinations project in their plans of action. Either way, over the past week it has become apparent to everybody, and particularly Netanyahu and Trump, that despite the [Zionist] regime's statements, the various arms of the resistance front continue to be active, and claims regarding the destruction of their fighting capabilities are false and baseless. On another front – Iraq – there is also still an active capability to [Israel and America] are concerned about the use of force by an [Iranian] resistance [faction] in Iraq and know full well that this would have severe implications, consequences, and damages for America and the occupying regime [Israel]. 'Alongside the resistance front, Iran's unique capabilities in the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman, and the Indian Ocean are part of Iran's deterrence. Practically, Iran has proven that it has a unique capability to secure the flow of energy [i.e. oil] in these sensitive and important regions [i.e. to block shipping by using mines]. The Zionist regime and America are aware to some extent of this capability, and according to analysts one of the reasons they asked for a ceasefire is a concern that the fighting might expand to these domains after Iran's attack against America's Al-Udeid Airbase in Qatar [CENTCOM]. With this attack, Iran proved that it also has the ability, the desire, and the determination to target American centers in the region. In other words, attacking Al-Udeid Airbase [CENTCOM] showed that Tehran is determined to make good on its threats regarding attacking American centers in the region, centers which serve the aggression against Iran, and it certainly will make good on these threats in practice. There is no doubt that America's concerns regarding the continuation of this pattern affected Washington's decision to ask for a ceasefire. Accordingly, it appears that Iran must show some of its new and unannounced capabilities and achievements in this domain. Thus, Iran's deterrence is indeed a factor affecting the plans of the Zionist regime and America to continue military attacks against Iran. '...Ending the War With a Preemptive Strike: It is an undisputed reality that Iran's military power, and particularly the IRGC's missile capabilities, were a major factor in ending of the war. Accordingly, Iran's military commanders underlined that if another aggression is carried out by the Zionist regime and America, Iran's response will be harsher than in the first round of fighting. The ideas of Iran's military commanders are entirely well-based and logical. Iran will never accept a situation in which the Zionist regime occasionally attacks its territory, like the situation in Lebanon and Syria, creating prolonged and permanent insecurity in its territory. Accordingly, Iran's military commanders have explicitly stated that if the regime will again invade Iran's territory, Iran will respond in a fashion that will end this war once and for all. 'Within this, one of the important and effective steps and suggestions [that has emerged] from this war in creating permanent deterrence is a preemptive action by Iran's armed forces, aimed at thwarting possible strikes by the Zionist regime, and interfering with all of the regime's military considerations against Iran. 'According to this idea, if an attack against Iran by the Zionist regime appears imminent by the commanders and decisionmakers, Iran will have to carry out a preemptive strike and strike all the key decisionmaking centers that planned the attack. In other words, a preemptive strike by Iran against the Zionist regime would enable it to continue carrying out strikes, and this way Iran could cause heavy damage to the [Zionist] regime and bring about a complete end of the war and the attacks against Iran, turning the threat into an opportunity and creating permanent deterrence. 'According to international law, [not only Israel, but] also Iran has the right to carry out a preemptive strike. A preemptive strike is defined as a military operation in which one side feels threatened by its opponent and takes early action to achieve an advantage. In recent days, official elements in the Zionist regime have said that resuming attacks against Iran is on their agenda. 'In accordance with existing evidence, including the sending of [Western] weapons and missiles to the occupied territories [i.e. Israel] and military preparations by the [Zionist] regime, resumption of attacks by the Zionist regime against Iran is a very likely scenario. Thus, in light of the open threats by the Zionists and the mass transfer of weapons and munitions from America and Europe to the Zionist regime, Iran has the right and ability to carry out a preemptive strike. Accordingly, if the military commanders and intelligence agencies in Iran conclude that resumed attacks by the Zionist regime are almost certain and imminent, Iran has the right to carry out a preemptive strike. According to reports, this preemptive strike can take place a day, a few hours, or even one hour before the attack by the Zionist regime against Iran. 'Another point is that after the attack by the Zionist regime and America against Iran, public opinion – both in Iran and globally – is fully aware of the facts of this aggression. The Iranian public is aware of the Zionist regime's dangerous project against Iran, and when the Zionist regime's attack against Iran will resume is a topic discussed in Iranian society. Thus, the claim that an Iranian preemptive strike must first be presented to and approved by the Iranian public is irrelevant. It is obvious that the Iranian public understands full well the situation of the fighting between Iran and between the Zionist regime and America, and understands also the logic behind an Iranian preemptive strike against the Zionist regime. 'Either way, a preemptive strike is today being assessed more seriously than ever by the commanders of the army and the political elements in Iran. Many analysts believe that an Iranian preemptive strike could achieve Iran's main goal – fully ending the war [with Israel] and creating long-term deterrence.'[1] Mahdi Mohammadi, Advisor To Majlis Speaker, Makes Instagram Post Calling For Nuclear Bombing Of Israel On July 12, 2025, Mahdi Mohammadi, an advisor to the speaker of the Iranian Majlis Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, shared on his Instagram account a story showing a map of Israel with two nuclear bombs detonating in it. On the following day, he claimed that he had not published the post, but rather the manager of his page did, and he reiterated the Iranian regime's official stance that there is has no use for nuclear weapons.[2] The Instagram story posted by Mohammadi, showing Israel with two nuclear bombs being detonated in it. Source: Mohammad on Instagram, July 12, 2025. Majlis National Security Council Member Abolfazl Zohrevand: We Must Have The Capability To Build As Many Nuclear Bombs As We Want In Less Than 24 Hours And To Equip Our Missiles With Tactical Nuclear Warheads On July 9, 2025, Majlis National Security and Foreign Policy Council member Abolfazl Zohrevand, said that he has always believed that Iran needs some form of deterrence, and he asserted that Iran must have the ability to build as many nuclear bombs as its wants in less than 24 hours so that it can react to its enemies' actions or threats. He also said that tactical nuclear weapons do not count as weapons of mass destruction, and thus Iran can equip its missiles with tactical nuclear warheads. He added that ideologically and religiously, he opposes Iran having a nuclear weapon or weapons of mass destruction, but that Iran must have the ability to respond to a nuclear attack in a minimal period of time, ideally less than 48 hours. Iranian Security Expert Abolfazl Bazargan: Iran Must Build And Test A Large Nuclear Bomb; Tactical Device Is Not Enough – "That Beautiful Mushroom Rise" Would Deter Enemies And Warn Tel Aviv; Iran's Survival Depends On Its Ability To Build A Bomb In an interview on the Khate Energy YouTube video posted on July 13-15, 2025, Iranian international security expert Abolfazl Bazargan discussed Iran's need for a large nuclear bomb that would serve as a deterrent. He said that smaller, tactical nuclear weapons are meant to be used but are not powerful enough, whereas larger bombs that can be tested would serve as an effective deterrent. He said that Iran needs to produce a large nuclear bomb, test it, and have "that beautiful mushroom rise" which would tell Iran's enemy that if it continues its attacks and threatens Iran's existence, Tel Aviv will be next. He further claimed that Iran can absolutely build an atomic bomb, noting that, according to an IAEA report, Iran conducted a "cold test" prior to 2003. Citing Dr. Fereydoon Abbasi, the former head of the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization who was assassinated during the June 2025 Iran‑Israel war, Bazargan said Iran had tested hypersonic missiles, ballistic missiles, ICBMs, and satellite launchers, and Iran could conceivably achieve the technology to develop a nuclear bomb. Bazargan concluded that Iran's survival, future, and territorial integrity depend on whether it obtains an atomic bomb, stating that an atomic bomb is not optional but a necessity.
