India is Not Yet the Fourth-Largest or a $4-Trillion Economy; NITI Aayog CEO's IMF Claim Misleading
NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam sparked excitement recently by claiming that India is already the world's fourth-largest economy and a $4 trillion economy, citing International Monetary Fund (IMF) data during a press briefing on May 24, 2025. Speaking after the NITI Aayog's 10th governing council meeting themed 'Viksit Rajya for Viksit Bharat', he expressed confidence that India would become the third-largest economy within 2.5 to 3 years, with only the US, China, and Germany ahead.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and several prominent personalities, including Amitabh Bachchan and Anand Mahindra, echoed these claims, sharing graphics attributed to the IMF's April 2025 World Economic Outlook report that appeared to show India overtaking Japan to become the fourth-largest economy.
Fact Check: What Does the IMF Data Actually Say?
A detailed examination of the IMF's World Economic Outlook (WEO) report released on April 22, 2025, reveals no such official ranking stating India is the fourth-largest economy or that it has surpassed Japan. The 190-page report does not include a ranking chart listing countries by GDP size as circulated on social media.
The IMF database provides GDP figures at current prices in US dollars, including estimates for future years. According to this data:
India's GDP for the financial year 2024-25 (FY25) was $3.91 trillion.
India is projected to reach $4.187 trillion by the end of FY26 (April 2025 - March 2026).
Japan's GDP in the calendar year 2024 was $4.03 trillion.
Japan's GDP is estimated to be $4.186 trillion at the end of 2025.
This indicates that India has not yet overtaken Japan, although projections suggest it could do so by the end of FY26. Currently, India ranks fifth in GDP size, behind the United States, China, Germany, and Japan.
Clarifications from Experts
Other experts associated with NITI Aayog, such as Arvind Virmani, have stressed that India becoming the fourth-largest economy is a forecast for the end of 2025, not a current fact. Virmani noted the importance of waiting for full-year GDP data before making definitive claims.
The IMF itself compiles data based on government statistics and provides projections; it does not independently collect raw economic data.
Why GDP Ranking Isn't the Full Picture
Even if India surpasses Japan in GDP terms, economists caution against using this metric alone to gauge development or progress. GDP figures do not reflect per capita income, income inequality, or employment levels—key factors in assessing overall economic wellbeing.
Conclusion
While India's economic growth is strong and the country is on track to climb the global GDP rankings, the claim by NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam that India is already the fourth-largest economy and a $4 trillion economy is premature and misleading when citing IMF data. India remains the fifth-largest economy as per the latest official figures, with projections indicating it may become fourth by the end of the 2025-26 fiscal year.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Deccan Herald
an hour ago
- Deccan Herald
A murder and a grim warning
Piecing together details gathered from Gauri's family members, friends, erstwhile colleagues, activists, investigating officers, the underworld and shadowy religious groups, the narrative examines how Indian politics and society have transformed since Narendra Modi became Prime Minister in 2014.
India Gazette
2 hours ago
- India Gazette
PM Modi virtually inaugurates Satna and Datia Airports, boosting regional connectivity in Madhya Pradesh
New Delhi [India], May 31 (ANI): In a significant milestone for regional connectivity and infrastructure development, Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Saturday virtually inaugurated the newly developed Satna Airport and the upgraded Datia Airport in Madhya Pradesh. The historic occasion, which marks a transformative leap for the Bundelkhand and Baghelkhand regions, was celebrated through physical events held at both airports, symbolising the Government of India's resolve to extend the benefits of air travel to every corner of the country under the UDAN (Ude Desh ka Aam Naagrik) scheme, according to the Ministry of Civil Aviation. The ceremony at Datia Airport was graced by the presence of Union Minister for Civil Aviation Ram Mohan Naidu, while the event at Satna Airport was attended by Minister of State for Civil Aviation Murlidhar Mohol. Both ministers highlighted the Ministry of Civil Aviation's unwavering focus on enhancing regional connectivity, improving accessibility, and catalysing local economies. The Satna Airport, developed by the Airports Authority of India at a cost of Rs 36.96 crore, is set to serve as a major regional hub in northeastern Madhya Pradesh. Known for its cultural and industrial prominence, Satna's new airport will now provide seamless connectivity to religious and industrial centers such as Chitrakoot and Maihar. The terminal building, spread over 768 square meters, can handle 50 peak-hour passengers and up to 2.5 lakh passengers annually. With modern passenger amenities, a recarpeted runway, apron facilities for Dornier-228 aircraft, and dedicated infrastructure including an ATC tower and fire station, the airport is poised to transform regional mobility. Sustainable features such as 100 per cent LED lighting, solar streetlights, and treated water reuse for horticulture further underline the eco-conscious approach adopted in its development. The upgraded Datia Airport, constructed at a cost of Rs 60.63 crore, will connect the historic town of Datia--revered for its spiritual significance and architectural heritage--to the national aviation map. The airport features a 768-square-meter terminal building with the capacity to handle 150 peak-hour passengers and an annual footfall of 2.5 lakh. With operational readiness for ATR-72 aircraft and future plans to accommodate A-320 aircraft, Datia Airport is a critical gateway for pilgrims and tourists visiting the renowned Peetambara Peeth and Datia Palace. The airport infrastructure includes a newly recarpeted runway, apron bays, ATC tower, and a fire station, alongside sustainability measures like rainwater harvesting and energy-efficient lighting systems. The operationalisation of Satna and Datia Airports is expected to yield substantial economic and social benefits, providing improved connectivity, creating direct and indirect employment, and catalysing the growth of related sectors such as hospitality, retail, education, and healthcare. These projects are a testimony to the government's unwavering dedication to transforming the aviation landscape in India and making development reach the last mile. The inauguration events also witnessed the august presence of the Governor of Madhya Pradesh, Mangubhai C Patel, the Chief Minister, Mohan Yadav, the Deputy Chief Ministers, Rajendra Shukla and Jagdish Devda, the MoCA Secretary, Samir Kumar Sinha, and the AAI Chairman, Vipin Kumar, along with other senior dignitaries and public representatives. (ANI)
India Gazette
2 hours ago
- India Gazette
'Process reforms' vital in India's GDP growth rate of 6-7%: Sanjeev Sanyal
Bengaluru (Karnataka) [India], May 31 (ANI): Economist Sanjeev Sanyal has said that India's economic growth rate of 6 to 7 per cent is a result of many 'process reforms' undertaken that are not part of the headlines. India continues to be among the fastest-growing major economies and is expected to maintain this momentum over the coming years, according to global agencies. Speaking in Bengaluru at a seminar titled 'Reforms: Way To Vikasit Bharath,' Sanyal, who is member of EAC-PM, said 'process reforms are an important part of reforms'. 'These are not reforms that you hear about in the headlines or in newspapers; unless you happen to be from that little sector, you probably don't know anything about it. And yet it is the accumulation of these hundreds of small reforms,' he said. 'The 6.5-7 per cent GDP growth rate we are now seeing is driven at least in part by the efficiencies we get from this kind of reform,' Sanyal said, highlighting the importance of micro-reforms. He said that the government has removed hundreds of outdated colonial-era laws. 'My late colleague Vivek Debroy was much into that. He was instrumental in removing hundreds of outdated, ridiculous laws. We've got four major maritime laws which go back more than 100 years, which I have worked to change,' he said. Sanyal said that reforms can be challenging and may not be popular with people but have a positive impact on economic growth. 'Laws are changing. These reforms are happening. And this is very painful, excruciating work, as you can tell; each one of them will need data, and we need to argue with people. You have to be willing to be unpopular with a large number of people, but you have to persist with this,' he said. 'Yesterday, you got the data: the economy grew in the last quarter by 7.4 per cent and we are now by some margin the fastest-growing economy despite all the turbulence in the world. It's not happening just like that. There's a lot of work that goes on at the back to keep this economy running,' Sanyal added. He noted that while small reforms often go unappreciated, their cumulative impact has significantly improved systemic efficiency. This, he added, is one of the key drivers behind the current 6.5-7 per cent GDP growth rate. According to the IMF's April edition of the World Economic Outlook, India's nominal GDP for fiscal year 2026 is expected to reach around USD 4.187 trillion. This is marginally more than Japan's likely GDP, which is estimated at USD 4.186 billion. Indian economy grew by 6.5 per cent in real terms in the recently concluded financial year 2024-25, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation's official data showed on Friday. (ANI)
