The market may be disappointed in pricing a September move, says Roger Ferguson
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Yahoo
30 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Dollar slips as investors eye September Fed cut
By Rae Wee SINGAPORE (Reuters) -The dollar weakened on Wednesday after a tame reading on U.S. inflation bolstered expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month, with President Donald Trump's attempts to extend his grip over U.S. institutions also undermining the currency. U.S. consumer prices increased marginally in July, data showed on Tuesday, in line with forecasts and as the pass-through from Trump's sweeping tariffs to goods prices has so far been limited. Investors eyeing imminent Fed cuts cheered the data and moved to price in a 98% chance the central bank would ease rates next month, which in turn dragged on the dollar. Against the yen, the dollar was last 0.05% lower at 147.76, while the euro was steady at $1.1676, having risen 0.5% in the previous session. The dollar index last stood at 98.08, after falling roughly 0.5% on Tuesday. "The July CPI report showed less evidence of tariff pass-through to consumer prices...(but) I think a September rate cut is less than certain, probably not as certain as current market pricing," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. "As the last payroll shows, one report can be sufficient to move the policy debate to one side or another. So I think we still have to wait until the remaining data to print before making a strong case about a rate cut or an on hold decision." U.S. Treasury yields similarly fell on the heightened rate cut expectations, with the two-year yield last at 3.7371%, having swung in a range of nearly 10 basis points on Tuesday. The benchmark 10-year yield was little changed at 4.2965%. [US/] Also eroding investor confidence in the dollar were fresh attempts by Trump to undermine Fed independence, after White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said on Tuesday that the U.S. president was considering a lawsuit against Fed Chair Jerome Powell in relation to his management of renovations at the central bank's Washington headquarters. Trump has been at loggerheads with Powell and has repeatedly lambasted the Fed Chair for not easing rates sooner. The president also hit out at Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, saying the bank had been wrong to predict U.S. tariffs would hurt the economy and questioned whether Solomon should lead the Wall Street institution. Elsewhere, sterling gained 0.03% to $1.3504. Britain's jobs market weakened again though wage growth stayed strong, according to data on Tuesday, underscoring why the Bank of England is so cautious about cutting interest rates. "(The) UK jobs figures pointed to the labour market remaining in fragile shape," said Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone. "My base case still has the next 25bp cut pencilled in for November, though there is a long way to go, and a lot of data to come, before then." In other currencies, the Australian dollar dipped 0.05% to $0.6526, while the New Zealand dollar fell 0.03% to $0.5953. The Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday cut interest rates as expected, and signalled further policy easing might be needed to meet its inflation and employment goals as the economy lost some momentum. Sign in to access your portfolio
CNBC
34 minutes ago
- CNBC
CNBC Daily Open: Will the other shoe drop when it comes to U.S. inflation?
Waiting for tariff-induced price increases in the U.S. to show up can feel like watching an M. Night Shyamalan movie. July's consumer price index came in mostly benign. The headline annual rate of 2.7% was lower than the Dow Jones estimate of 2.8%. That said, the core figure was 0.1 percentage points more than expected, and the highest since February, before U.S. President Donald Trump unleashed his tariffs in April. "The tariffs are in the numbers, but they're certainly not jumping out hair on fire at this point," former White House economist Jared Bernstein, who served under Joe Biden, told CNBC. Things appear idyllic so far, but you know something's going to shock you out of your seats eventually — are the figures accurate, except that the decimal point should be shifted to the right? — which makes monitoring U.S. inflation a tense (and exciting) experience. Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs' chief economist, in a Sunday research note estimated that the big reveal (when the U.S. consumer admits, "I see higher prices") could happen by October. But markets hit record highs as investors saw the mild inflation numbers as a sign that the Federal Reserve has room to cut rates three times this year — or that tariffs might not drive prices that much higher. Maybe the original premise was wrong: As far as inflation goes, could we be in a happily-ever-after Disney flick, instead of a Shyamalan movie? [no byline of yours?] U.S. prices in July rose less than expected. The consumer price index increased a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month, putting the annual figure at 2.7%. Economists polled by Dow Jones were expecting a 0.2% and 2.8% rise, respectively. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite close at new highs. On Tuesday, July's tame CPI report pushed the indexes up 1.13% and 1.39% respectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also rose, adding 1.1%. The Stoxx Europe 600 ticked up 0.21%. Trump threatens Fed chair Powell with a 'major lawsuit.' In a post on Truth Social, the U.S. president said the potential proceedings would relate to Powell's management of the Fed's headquarters renovations. Perplexity AI offers $34.5 billion to buy Google's browser. The bid for Chrome, which came unsolicited, is higher than Perplexity's $18 billion valuation in July, but the firm said investors have agreed to back the deal. [PRO] Traders see three rate cuts this year. With Tuesday's cooler-than-forecast inflation report, the futures market is now expecting a cut in each of the Fed's meeting in September, October and December, according to the CME FedWatch tool. More European companies are shunning high-stakes deals in favor of smaller M&As Executives from industrial giants to consumer goods firms are deploying capital on strategic deals designed to snap up competitors and acquire technologies instead of staking their reputations on major deals that run the risk of never materializing. It's a strategy that allows firms to pursue growth without the immense risks and regulatory headaches that have scuttled larger deals.
Bloomberg
34 minutes ago
- Bloomberg
Bloomberg Daybreak Asia: US CPI Fuels Fed Cut Bets
Stocks climbed to a record after an in-line US inflation reading bolstered speculation the Federal Reserve will have room to cut rates in September. US inflation data bolstered expectations that the Fed can move toward rate cuts without reigniting price pressures. While underlying inflation accelerated to the strongest since the start of the year, the modest gain in goods prices eased fears that trade-related costs may feed into broader price pressures. We get reaction from Charles Lieberman, Co-Founder and Chief Investment Officer at Advisors Capital Management. Plus - Bitcoin continues to flirt with an all-time high as demand from institutional investors and corporate treasury buyers lifts the wider market for digital assets. A recent executive order from US President Donald Trump clears the way for digital assets to be added to the mix of investments available in workplace retirement plans - and for ordinary investors dissatisfied with the returns from target-date funds or the traditional 60/40 portfolio to push their savings into riskier assets. We talk all things crypto with Peter Chung, Head of Research at quant trading firm Presto in Hong Kong.
