Emmy odds check-up: ‘The Pitt' prognosis is positive as it creeps up on ‘Severance'
Exactly three months ago, The Pitt was in 10th place for Best Drama Series; its vital signs have been steadily improving ever since.
By March, the Max medical procedural had jumped up to sixth place in Gold Derby's odds, and by April it was in the top four. Now, as word of mouth continues to grow, The Pitt has achieved its highest placement yet at No. 2, behind only the long-standing predictions leader, Severance.
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The Pitt stars Emmy frontrunner Noah Wyle as Dr. Michael "Robby" Robinavitch, a senior attending physician who works a 15-hour shift at Pittsburgh Trauma Medical Hospital. Each episode unfolds hourly in real time. Robby's fellow staff members include Taylor Dearden's Melissa "Mel" King, Katherine LaNasa's Dana Evans, Patrick Ball's Frank Langdon, and Shawn Hatosy's Dr. Jack Abbott.
While The Pitt gives viewers a nostalgic throwback feel to traditional broadcast dramas, Severance is celebrated for its originality and fully embraces its sci-fi weirdness. Adam Scott stars as Mark Scout, aka Mark S., an employee for the mysterious Lumon Industries who agrees to separate his work mind from his home self. His fellow severed workers include Zach Cherry as Dylan G., Britt Lower as Helly R., and John Turturro as Irving B.
Three other genre shows appear in Gold Derby's top eight: zombie apocalypse drama The Last of Us in third place, Star Wars spin-off Andor in seventh place, and survival horror series Squid Game in eighth place. Is it possible they could all split the sci-fi/fantasy vote, thereby ensuring a classic drama like The Pitt ekes out a victory on Emmy night? Be sure to give us your take in our TV forum.
SEE 2025 Emmy Awards calendar: Key dates
Below are the current Emmy predictions in 16 top categories, updated May 22. You can see how the races have evolved over time by examining our previous Emmy snapshots on March 19, March 28, April 7, April 15, April 23, April 29, May 7, and May 16.
Gold Derby's Emmy odds are based on the combined forecasts of more than 2,500 people (and counting), including experts we've polled from major media outlets, editors who cover awards year-round for this website, and the mass of users who make up our biggest predictions bloc. Track the Emmy predictions by exploring all of our charts and graphs.
Apple
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Severance — 9/2 2. The Pitt — 11/2 3. The Last of Us — 6/1 4. The White Lotus — 13/2 5. Slow Horses — 8/1 6. The Diplomat — 10/1 7. Andor — 21/2 8. Squid Game — 22/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Paradise, The Handmaid's Tale, The Day of the Jackal, High Potential, Wolf Hall: The Mirror and the Light, House of the Dragon
Erik Voake/CBS
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Kathy Bates (Matlock) — 10/3 2. Bella Ramsey (The Last of Us) — 4/1 3. Keri Russell (The Diplomat) — 5/1 4. Britt Lower (Severance) — 5/1 5. Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid's Tale) — 9/1 6. Melanie Lynskey (Yellowjackets) — 14/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Keira Knightley (Black Doves), Carrie Preston (Elsbeth), Kaitlin Olson (High Potential), Helen Mirren (1923), Zoe Saldaña (Lioness), Nicola Coughlan (Bridgerton)
John Johnson/Max
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Noah Wyle (The Pitt) — 10/3 2. Adam Scott (Severance) — 19/5 3. Gary Oldman (Slow Horses) — 5/1 4. Sterling K. Brown (Paradise) — 13/2 5. Pedro Pascal (The Last of Us) — 7/1 6. Eddie Redmayne (The Day of the Jackal) — 18/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Diego Luna (Andor), Jon Hamm (Your Friends and Neighbors), Lee Jung-jae (Squid Game), Billy Bob Thornton (Landman), Mark Rylance (Wolf Hall: The Mirror and the Light), Rufus Sewell (The Diplomat)
HBO
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Carrie Coon (The White Lotus) — 19/5 2. Parker Posey (The White Lotus) — 5/1 3. Allison Janney (The Diplomat) — 11/2 4. Aimee Lou Wood (The White Lotus) — 9/1 5. Natasha Rothwell (The White Lotus) — 12/1 6. Isabela Merced (The Last of Us) — 15/1 7. Patricia Arquette (Severance) — 15/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Taylor Dearden (The Pitt), Katherine LaNasa (The Pitt), Dichen Lachman (Severance), Leslie Bibb (The White Lotus), Kristin Scott Thomas (Slow Horses), Julianne Nicholson (Paradise)
HBO
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Walton Goggins (The White Lotus) — 4/1 2. John Turturro (Severance) — 9/2 3. Tramell Tillman (Severance) — 11/2 4. Jason Isaacs (The White Lotus) — 15/2 5. Jack Lowden (Slow Horses) — 8/1 6. Sam Rockwell (The White Lotus) — 10/1 7. Patrick Schwarzenegger (The White Lotus) — 16/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Jeffrey Wright (The Last of Us), Patrick Ball (The Pitt), Jonathan Pryce (Slow Horses), Zach Cherry (Severance), James Marsden (Paradise), Young Mazino (The Last of Us)
Max
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Hacks — 4/1 2. The Studio — 6/1 3. The Bear — 13/2 4. Only Murders in the Building — 7/1 5. Abbott Elementary — 8/1 6. Shrinking — 19/2 7. Nobody Wants This — 21/2 8. What We Do in the Shadows — 20/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
The Four Seasons, A Man on the Inside, Poker Face, The Righteous Gemstones, The Residence, Agatha All Along
Max
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Jean Smart (Hacks) — 31/10 2. Ayo Edebiri (The Bear) — 9/2 3. Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary) — 5/1 4. Kristen Bell (Nobody Wants This) — 6/1 5. Natasha Lyonne (Poker Face) — 23/2 6. Selena Gomez (Only Murders in the Building) — 14/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Uzo Aduba (The Residence), Kathryn Hahn (Agatha All Along), Tina Fey (The Four Seasons), Bridget Everett (Somebody Somewhere), Wendi McLendon-Covey (St. Denis Medical), Rose McIver (Ghosts)
Hulu
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building) — 7/2 2. Jeremy Allen White (The Bear) — 9/2 3. Seth Rogen (The Studio) — 9/2 4. Adam Brody (Nobody Wants This) — 6/1 5. Steve Martin (Only Murders in the Building) — 19/2 6. Jason Segel (Shrinking) — 10/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Ted Danson (A Man on the Inside), Steve Carell (The Four Seasons), Matt Berry (What We Do in the Shadows), Brian Jordan Alvarez (English Teacher), Benito Skinner (Overcompensating), Patrick Brammall (Colin from Accounts)
Max
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Hannah Einbinder (Hacks) — 31/10 2. Liza Cólon-Zayas (The Bear) — 9/2 3. Sheryl Lee Ralph (Abbott Elementary) — 6/1 4. Jessica Williams (Shrinking) — 7/1 5. Catherine O'Hara (The Studio) — 8/1 6. Janelle James (Abbott Elementary) — 19/2
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Patti LuPone (Agatha All Along), Meryl Streep (Only Murders in the Building), Kathryn Hahn (The Studio), Meg Stalter (Hacks), Linda Lavin (Mid-Century Modern), Chloe Fineman (Saturday Night Live)
Chuck Hodes/FX
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Ebon Moss-Bachrach (The Bear) — 37/10 2. Harrison Ford (Shrinking) — 9/2 3. Paul W. Downs (Hacks) — 5/1 4. Ike Barinholtz (The Studio) — 15/2 5. Michael Urie (Shrinking) — 17/2 6. Tyler James Williams (Abbott Elementary) — 17/2
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Bowen Yang (Saturday Night Live), Colman Domingo (The Four Seasons), Timothy Simons (Nobody Wants This), Brett Goldstein (Shrinking), Paul Rudd (Only Murders in the Building), Marcello Hernández (Saturday Night Live)
Netflix
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Adolescence — 46/25 2. The Penguin — 82/25 3. Dying for Sex — 13/2 4. Disclaimer — 8/1 5. Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story — 13/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Say Nothing, Black Mirror, Presumed Innocent, La Maquina, Fight Night: The Million Dollar Heist, Sirens
Netflix
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Rebel Ridge — 21/10 2. Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy — 18/5 3. Out of My Mind — 5/1 4. Mountainhead — 13/2 5. Am I OK? — 12/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
The Gorge, Swiped, It's What's Inside, G20, The Parenting, The Supremes at Earl's All-You-Can-Eat
Macall Polay/HBO
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Cristin Milioti (The Penguin) — 21/10 2. Michelle Williams (Dying for Sex) — 3/1 3. Cate Blanchett (Disclaimer) — 9/2 4. Renée Zellweger (Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy) — 9/1 5. Kaitlyn Dever (Apple Cider Vinegar) — 16/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Ellen Pompeo (Good American Family), Lola Petticrew (Say Nothing), Meghann Fahy (Sirens), Anya Taylor-Joy (The Gorge), Rashida Jones (Black Mirror), Ari Graynor (Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story)
Max
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Colin Farrell (The Penguin) — 7/4 2. Stephen Graham (Adolescence) — 17/5 3. Cooper Koch (Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story) — 6/1 4. Kevin Kline (Disclaimer) — 13/2 5. Brian Tyree Henry (Dope Thief) — 14/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Jake Gyllenhaal (Presumed Innocent), Robert De Niro (Zero Day), Nicholas Alexander Chavez (Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story), Aaron Pierre (Rebel Ridge), Paul Giamatti (Black Mirror), Josh Andres Rivera (American Sports Story: Aaron Hernandez)
Ben Blackall/Netflix
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Erin Doherty (Adolescence) — 4/1 2. Deirdre O'Connell (The Penguin) — 5/1 3. Jenny Slate (Dying for Sex) — 11/2 4. Lesley Manville (Disclaimer) — 8/1 5. Sissy Spacek (Dying for Sex) — 9/1 6. Christine Tremarco (Adolescence) — 12/1 7. Chloe Sevigny (Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story) — 12/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Leila George (Disclaimer), Angela Bassett (Zero Day), Julianne Moore (Sirens), Ruth Negga (Presumed Innocent), Taraji P. Henson (Fight Night: The Million Dollar Heist), Milly Alcock (Sirens)
Netflix
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Owen Cooper (Adolescence) — 39/10 2. Javier Bardem (Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story) — 9/2 3. Rhenzy Feliz (The Penguin) — 7/1 4. Rob Delaney (Dying for Sex) — 17/2 5. Ashley Walters (Adolescence) — 9/1 6. Peter Sarsgaard (Presumed Innocent) — 10/1 7. Kodi Smit-McPhee (Disclaimer) — 28/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Jesse Plemons (Zero Day), Hugh Grant (Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy), Brian Cox (The Parenting), Clancy Brown (The Penguin), Jay Duplass (Dying for Sex), Diego Luna (La Maquina)
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