Can China save South Africa from Donald Trump?

Hindustan Times

5 days ago

SOUTH AFRICA is a country with a dark past and a frustrating present. In such a society, to represent the future is a glorious thing. For many South Africans, China holds the keys to a better tomorrow. To its admirers, China represents a timely alternative to a West that is turning inwards, cutting aid and tightening border controls. If America imposes 30% tariffs on South Africa on August 1st, as it says it will, their country has options, they say. China long ago overtook America as South Africa's largest trading partner, with two-way trade growing 25-fold this century. A Chinese maker of electric cars, BYD, is said to be scouting for South African factory sites. Public opinion is marked by racial divides. Asked by the Social Research Foundation, a think-tank, whether Russia and China provide more investment and jobs than America and the EU, 59% of black South Africans agreed, but only 34% of whites. Geopolitics inspires more caution. Asked whether South Africa should pursue anti-Western foreign policies aligned with China, Iran and Russia, 41% of black respondents and 12% of whites said yes. A narrow majority of all said no.
In Johannesburg boardrooms and Cape Town cafés where politicians gossip and scheme, there is agreement about China's importance and alarm at lopsided trade. South Africa exports mainly raw materials and minerals to China while importing manufactured and capital goods, running a trade deficit of $9.7bn in 2023. Diplomatically, South Africa has moved away from a tradition of non-aligned pragmatism. It now often backs Chinese positions in the BRICS, the G20, the UN and other forums. But centrist politicians and business leaders reject the notion, heard on the left of the ruling African National Congress (ANC), that closer alignment with China avoids the need to mend fences with the West.
South Africa's relations with America, notably, are at their worst since apartheid ended. President Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress have threatened sanctions for some invented crimes, starting with what Mr Trump falsely claims is a genocidal campaign, egged on by South African officials, to kill white farmers and take their land. But real disputes have soured relations, too. These touch on everything from South Africa's sponsorship of genocide charges against Israel at the International Court of Justice, to its commercial and diplomatic ties with Russia and Iran. Relations with Europe have also been frosty in recent years, says a Western envoy, though the EU is currently wooing South Africa as a swing state in the global south.
In his capacity as agriculture minister, John Steenhuisen sees 'huge opportunity for South Africa in China', with farmers eager to sell citrus fruit, wine and nuts to Chinese city-dwellers. But as the leader of the Democratic Alliance, a business-friendly party in coalition with the ANC, Mr Steenhuisen says: 'Those who think we can say goodbye to the West and look at China haven't checked the numbers.' He notes that 75% of foreign investment to South Africa is from America, Britain and the EU, which will be hard to replace 'in the short and medium term'. Morris Mthombeni, dean of the University of Pretoria's Gordon Institute of Business Science, calls it 'naive' to think that South Africa can afford to lose its trade with the West. China buys large volumes of commodities, but 'in terms of diversity of trade, the West is more important. Trade with China and with the US are not substitutable.'
A researcher at the China-Global South Project, Cobus van Staden, sees ideological affinity guiding some ANC politicians. As veterans of a liberation movement with Marxist roots, they admire China's Communist Party for combining economic growth with central planning and a big state-owned sector. 'The problem is that China builds that on top of a hugely competent technocracy, which isn't the case in South Africa,' he notes. Modern-day Chinese party cadres are more entrepreneurial than South African bureaucrats. 'The line you hear from Chinese diplomats is they would like to do more with South Africa, but they find it over-regulated. They're frustrated at the number of hoops they have to jump through,' reports Mr van Staden.
For that matter, it is common to hear South Africans frustrated at the reluctance of Chinese firms to transfer technologies and high-value skills when they open factories in South Africa, or to promote Africans to senior positions. In his embassy in Pretoria, its design a nod to grey-walled Chinese courtyard mansions, China's ambassador, Wu Peng, denies that his government imposes any 'artificial technical barriers' to technology transfers by companies. On the contrary, he says, China encourages firms to bring capital, technology and skilled personnel to South Africa, for instance in such fields as automobiles, batteries, renewable energy and pharmaceuticals. Yet conditions must be ripe. 'You cannot reach industrialisation in one day. You need your economic structure to be more competitive,' advises the ambassador. China's model of modernisation holds 'strong appeal' for many African countries, Mr Wu avers. But China 'never, ever' lectures African governments about the best path to take.
China: not a trump card against Trump
South Africa's dysfunction and red tape (eg, rules requiring ownership stakes for non-whites) harm it. Because electricity is so expensive and unreliable, it is profitable to mine chromium ore in South Africa and ship it to China for smelting, laments Songezo Zibi, the head of a small centrist party, Rise Mzansi. He describes China's current relationship with his country as 'unhelpfully extractive', urging South Africa to seek deeper, more sustainable ties with both China and the West.
Bluntly, there is no magic China solution. Hard reforms are needed, as well as balanced foreign relations. Otherwise, whether the future is Chinese or not, South Africa will be left behind.
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