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UPI
2 hours ago
- UPI
Analysis: Lebanon's decision on weapons corners Hezbollah
The weapons decision, adopted during a Cabinet session chaired by President Joseph Aoun on Tuesday, not only ends the political cover Hezbollah has enjoyed for decades, but also undermines its legitimacy as a 'resistance organization,' according to military and political analysts. Photo by Wael BEIRUT, Lebanon, Aug. 6 (UPI) -- Lebanon, caught between mounting international pressure and the risk of another devastating war with Israel, made a game-changing decision by tasking the Army with preparing a plan to enforce a state monopoly on weapons by the end of the year. The move poses a new challenge to the once-powerful Hezbollah, which has been left with almost no options after being significantly weakened during last year's war with Israel. The decision, adopted during a Cabinet session chaired by President Joseph Aoun on Tuesday, not only ends the political cover Hezbollah has enjoyed for decades, but also undermines its legitimacy as a "resistance organization," according to military and political analysts. Addressing Hezbollah's weapons had long been a taboo topic; until September, when Israel escalated its attacks on the group, killing its longtime leader, Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah, along with many of its top military commanders. In addition, the Iran-backed Shiite group reportedly lost the bulk of its military capabilities in ongoing Israeli airstrikes targeting its positions in southern and eastern Lebanon. Hezbollah had no alternative but to accept the Nov. 27 ceasefire agreement, brokered by the United States and France, to end the 14-month war with Israel that killed or wounded more than 20,000 people and left border villages in southern Lebanon in ruins. However, the agreement marked an opportunity for Lebanon to reclaim its long-lost sovereignty after decades of lawlessness, military occupation and the dominance of armed non-state actors. Tuesday's decision was "certainly a historic" one, according to Riad Kahwaji, who heads the Dubai-based Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis. "Hezbollah has lost the political cover that has given it legitimacy as a resistance organization," Kahwaji told UPI. He maintained that the militant group is now viewed as an armed militia that must comply with the 1989 Taif Accords -- which ended the 1975-1990 civil war -- and U.N. Resolution 1701, both of which call for the disarmament of all armed groups and affirm that only the Lebanese Armed Forces should hold a monopoly on weapons in the country. While Hezbollah implicitly agreed to discuss its weapons as part of a national defense strategy, it resisted government efforts to set a timetable for disarming -- a key U.S. condition for unlocking much-needed international and Gulf Arab funding to support Lebanon's reconstruction and economic recovery. In line with the government decision, the Army was to submit its implementation plan on disarming Hezbollah and other Palestinian armed factions to the cabinet by the end of August for discussion and approval, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said after the Cabinet meeting. Hezbollah and its main ally, the Shiite Amal Movement led by Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, rejected in separate statements Wednesday the Cabinet's decision as a "grave sin" that offers "free concessions to the Israeli enemy" and weakens Lebanon, rather than ending Israel's ongoing attacks, its occupation of Lebanese territory and securing the release of Lebanese prisoners. Hezbollah has maintained that it is unwilling to lay down its arms as long as Israel continues to occupy parts of Lebanese territory -- an argument that was considered legitimate until the recent Cabinet decision. "Its weapons will become illegitimate by the end of the year, in accordance with Lebanese law," said Abdul Rahman Chehaitli, a retired major general and author of The Lebanese Land and Maritime Borders: A Historical, Geographical, and Political Study. "But it still enjoys popular legitimacy." Chehaitli noted that Lebanon still faces "external threats" from Israel and from armed groups operating outside the control of the new Syrian leadership and that are deployed along the eastern border. He explained that Lebanon would need an agreement similar to the 1949 Armistice Accord to guarantee Israel's withdrawal and to demarcate the border, as well as a separate border agreement with Syria to enable the Lebanese Army to carry out its mission. "The government is serious, but no one can say what will happen the next day or what additional demands the U.S. and Israel might push forward," he told UPI, referring to concerns among Lebanon's Shiite community about their future and political role in the country. The question remains whether Hezbollah is still capable of fighting Israel after losing much of its power. Kahwaji said the group was "trying to put on a strong face," but clearly, "the Hezbollah we knew is no longer there. ... It's much weaker." He argued that Hezbollah's "calculations have continuously and miserably failed" since Oct. 7, 2023, which is why the group was "badly defeated and degraded." "It has lost the halo it carried for years. All its attempts to recreate the illusion of deterrence and to intimidate the state have also failed," he said. While Israel claimed to have destroyed 70 percent of Hezbollah's arsenal, Chehaitli said, "no one really knows. ... It remains a mystery." "It could still have military capabilities it hasn't used -- or it could have none," he added, emphasizing that Hezbollah, in any case, would not initiate a war but could fight back if one is imposed. The devastating blows Hezbollah suffered during the war with Israel have reportedly prompted the group -which has been fighting Israel since its establishment after the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982- to engage in a comprehensive internal review. The situation has shifted significantly due to the accelerated developments in the region following the Gaza war. Hezbollah, which was the principal component of Iran's "Axis of Resistance" carrying out missions outside Lebanon, has been forced to shift its focus. Kassem Kassir, a political analyst who specializes in Islamic movements and is close to Hezbollah, explained that the group is engaged in internal discussions, as well as talks with other political forces in the country, to develop "a new vision." "But so far, it hasn't produced a comprehensive or complete one," Kassir told UPI. What is clear, however, is that Hezbollah is now focusing on Lebanon and its future role as part of the state.
News24
3 hours ago
- News24
BOSA pushes for Cabinet ministers to be screened against sexual offenders list
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Bloomberg
3 hours ago
- Bloomberg
Ghana Defense, Environment Ministers Die in Helicopter Crash
Two Ghanaian government ministers were killed when a military helicopter they were traveling on crashed on Wednesday. Minister of Defense Edward Omane Boamah and Minister of Environment, Science and Technology Ibrahim Murtala Muhammed were among the eight passengers and crew aboard the helicopter, which took off around 9 a.m. in Accra, the capital, a government spokesman said. There were no survivors.
