Inside the Dems' fight to be "the new Iowa" and hold the first 2028 primary
Nevada, New Hampshire, and Michigan are currently the frontrunners to be "the new Iowa," and lead off the 2028 Democratic primary season, according to several people familiar with the Rules and Bylaws committee that will determine the order.
Why it matters: The candidate who wins the first state primary gets a boost that can help propel them to the nomination — and potential candidates already are looking into which order of contests could benefit them the most.
State of play: For decades, Iowa's caucuses and New Hampshire's primary kicked off the presidential primary season.
But the order of contests has become a free-for-all since Iowa botched its caucuses in 2020, and then-President Biden changed the calendar in 2024 to favor his re-election bid by moving up the primary in Biden-friendly South Carolina.
Potential candidates and their teams have been contacting members of the party's Rules and Bylaws panel to develop relationships before the 2028 calendar is set.
These are the current pitches — and arguments against — the states that appear to be the top contenders to kick off the primary voting, according to several people familiar with them.
Pro-Nevada: It has a strong union presence, is racially diverse, and has a large working-class Latino population at a time when Democrats are losing ground with such voters. It's also a swing state, and a presidential primary would bring in money and organizing power that could help Democrats there in the November 2028 election.
Anti-Nevada: Voters there typically aren't as engaged as those in places like Iowa, it takes longer to get around a state that's more than 10 times the size of New Hampshire by square mileage, and it's far away from the political classes in Washington and New York.
Pro-New Hampshire: It's traditionally been an early primary, and it's a small state with engaged voters who'll give any candidate a shot instead of favoring the one with the most money.
Anti-New Hampshire: It's more than 60% white, and the Democratic Party is significantly more diverse than that. There isn't a strong union presence at a time when Democrats are trying to win back working-class voters.
Pro-Michigan: It's racially and regionally diverse with a mix of rural and urban residents, and is an important Midwestern swing state with a strong union presence. To some Democrats, it's the choice most representative of all of America.
Anti-Michigan: It's too big with too many people (pop. 10 million-plus), which could favor the candidate with the most advertising money rather than one who meets a lot of voters and has a robust organization on the ground. Some Democratic operatives worry that a spotlight on the state's large Arab and Jewish populations could further stoke divisions in the party over the war in Gaza, while other Democrats want that to be part of the debate.
Zoom in: The new chair of the DNC, Ken Martin, overhauled and expanded the committee in ways that will affect the final vote.
The committee now includes many current and former state party chairs who are seen as close allies of Martin. That could give him significant influence over the final decision.
The committee also has expanded from 33 to 49 members. Many of the new members have never served on the Rules and Bylaws panel, which could complicate the process.
What they're saying: Rep. Debbie Dingell of Michigan, who joined the committee and is advocating for her state, told Axios she wants to "put the light on important issues early in the primaries, and not in November when we are losing."
Michigan's party chair Curtis Hertel added that "placing Michigan early in the process is healthy for our democracy and for the country."
"The DNC is committed to running a fair, rigorous, and transparent process for the 2028 presidential nominating calendar," DNC Deputy Communications Director Abhi Rahman said. "All states will have an opportunity to participate."
Longtime DNC member Michael Kapp, who is new to the committee, said Martin "is not putting his thumb on the scale," like former chairs did. "It's a very different process than before, and in the right direction."
Reality check: It's early in the process, and other states will make bids to host the first primary as conversations heat up later this year.
Iowa, which mishandled the vote counting during its 2020 caucuses, will try to make a comeback. But there are no Iowans on the Rules and Bylaws panel that will meet next week.
South Carolina, which went first in 2024, also is likely to try to stay first. About one-quarter of South Carolina's residents are Black — a population that leans heavily toward Democrats.
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