SP500 Futures Analysis & Targets 5/3/25

Globe and Mail

03-05-2025

SP 500 Futures
(ESM25)
There are two methods we use at ONE44 to find support and resistance in the markets.
The first are major Gann squares, these are the yellow horizontal lines on the chart. On the chart you can see where the market turned multiple times at these levels.
The second is Fibonacci retracements and this is what most of this post will be about.
There are a few basic rules when using the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines.
This is the short version.
A 38.2% level keeps the trend intact and new highs/lows should follow.
A 23.6% level shows the market is extremely strong, or weak.
A 61.8% level can send the market 61.8% of where it just can from and cause wide swings keeping the market in a trading range.
A 78.6% level can send it 78.6% of where it just came from and even be the end or start of a Bull market.
5/3/25
ESM25
From last week,
The rally after holding 23.6% (4850.00) back to the 2009 low is now just short of the 5566.00 major Gann square and this will be the key level for next week. The long term target remains at a new ATH. It has now made a higher low and higher high with this week's range and that adds to the positive view.
Use 5566.00 as the swing point for the week.
Above it, we already mentioned what the long term target is. The next major area of resistance will be between the 5850.25 major Gann square and 78.6% back to the ATH at 5880.00. The short term target is 61.8% back to the same high at 5652.00.
The rally from 4850.00 (23.6% back to the 2009 low) has now taken out 61.8% back to the ATH at 5652.00, this will be the key level for the next week. The long term target remains a new ATH, however you always have to watch the 78.6% level, as this can cause a sharp setback.
Use 4652.00 as the swing point for the week.
Above it, the long term target is a new ATH. The short term target area is the 5850.25 major Gann square and 78.6% back to the ATH at 5880.00, a setback from this area can cause a quick selloff. Following the ONE44 78.6% rule, the setback could be 78.6% the other way, however as always we will be watching every retracement to see just how weak, or strong the market is regardless of the long term target. The 200 day average is at 5775.00. Above 5880.00 there is the 5996.50 major Gann square and then the cluster of major Gann squares that sent this market lower between 6102.00 and 6142.00.
Below it, getting right back below 61.8% at 4652.00 on Monday can send this market 61.8% the other way at 5170.00, this would be the long term target. The short term target is 38.2% at 5376.00. Any setback that holds 23.6% at 5510.00 keeps the current trend extremely positive and a new high can quickly follow.
We have done 46 videos on how to use the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines. These Videos are worth watching even if it is not in the market you are trading, as the ONE44 rules and guidelines are the same for every market. You will also see why we believe the Fibonacci retracements are the underlying structure of ALL markets.
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Our goal is to not only give you actionable information, but to help you understand why we think this is happening based on pure price analysis with Fibonacci retracements, that we believe are the underlying structure of all markets and Gann squares.
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