Rahm Emanuel stokes 2028 speculation
Rahm Emanuel has ramped up speculation in recent weeks that he's plotting a 2028 presidential run, adding a prominent name in Democratic circles to an already crowded list of possible candidates.
The former Chicago mayor has been making the media rounds over the past month and hasn't ruled out several options for his political future, including another run for mayor or possibly seeking governor of Illinois. He has also become increasingly vocal about the Democratic Party's direction after its loss in November.
Emanuel is a divisive figure in the party and would likely face a crowded primary field with other big names, but allies say he would bring a track record of knowing how to win tough races.
'Nobody brings more energy and more fight to a moment when we desperately need both,' said one Democratic campaign strategist. 'He immediately brings significant advantages to the table.'
Emanuel has been a staple in Democratic politics for decades, first serving as an adviser in former President Clinton's administration before being elected to the House in 2002. He served for three terms before becoming former President Obama's first chief of staff in the White House.
He stepped away from that role in 2010 to serve two terms as mayor of Chicago, declining to seek a third term amid poor approval ratings. He returned to public service in 2022, serving as ambassador to Japan for the final three years of the Biden administration.
Emanuel has given strong indications he still harbors political ambitions.
'I'm not done with public service, and I hope public service isn't done with me,' he told Semafor earlier this month, similar to other statements he has made in recent months when asked about possible future ambitions.
He has also increasingly become a fixture as a political analyst, regularly appearing on podcasts and talk shows and taking a gig as a CNN commentator. Meanwhile, he has been a consistent opinion columnist for The Washington Post since the start of this year.
Emanuel has also received attention for being one of a few Democrats to call for the party to focus less on transgender issues, in the aftermath of polls showing voters trusted Republicans more on the economy and immigration, which were seen as the most important issues.
He joined the investment bank Centerview Partners — where he previously counseled CEOs on mergers, regulation and political issues from 2019-21 — as a senior adviser this month, tying him to some longtime Democrats who work for the bank.
But the biggest indicator may be Emanuel's moves behind the scenes. The campaign strategist said Emanuel has already reached out to staff to try to hire them ahead of a potential bid.
'He's definitely running,' they said.
The Hill has reached out to Centerview Partners for comment from Emanuel.
Former Rep. Steve Israel (D-N.Y.), who worked with Emanuel at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said Emanuel has 'world-class experience,' as well as a track record on politics and policy, that would suit him well.
'The Democrats need a candidate who can formulate a proactive agenda. We can't be limited to, 'I'm not Trump,'' he said, arguing that Emanuel should be at the 'forefront' of the field. 'There's got to be proactive policy agenda.'
Israel pointed to Democrats' success in the 2006 midterms, in which the party won control of the House for the first time in 12 years with Emanuel as the head of House Democrats' campaign arm.
'Nancy Pelosi and Rahm Emanuel figured out the strategy that won red districts and got the base out in blue and purple districts at the same time,' he said. 'So he's done that. He's proven his ability to unite Democrats.'
But this was before his time as mayor of Chicago, when Emanuel saw his favorability ratings decline to the 20s amid criticism on various issues, including his handling of public education and policing.
Tensions were stoked in particular following the murder of Laquan McDonald, a 17-year-old Black boy, by a Chicago police officer in 2014. Emanuel's administration received backlash over alleged lack of transparency and a refusal to release the dashboard camera video from the incident until directed to by a court order.
He has also more recently received criticism from the left over his comments about transgender issues and from current Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson (D) over other parts of his record, like the financial state of the city and education.
'We didn't get here because we just happened to have a tyrant in the White House. We got here because someone gave him the script,' Johnson told a Chicago CBS affiliate Tuesday. 'Shutting of schools, the firing of Black women, the privatizing of our public education system is why the system is as jacked up as it is today.'
Emanuel's administration closed 50 public schools as enrollment fell and they performed poorly.
Democratic strategist Victor Reyes, who used to work for former Mayor Richard Daley, said progressives' views on Emanuel could be a 'significant problem' for him in a Democratic primary, pointing to the 2020 primaries in which most candidates ran to former President Biden's left.
'They're going to try to out-left themselves. So it is a problem in a primary, but it's an asset in the general,' he said.
But he added that he wouldn't expect Emanuel to run unless he sees a path to victory.
'One thing I know about Rahm is he doesn't do anything without polls, and he doesn't do anything to lose,' Reyes said. 'So if he does decide to jump in and do something here, it's because he knows and sees a path, not a guarantee, but a path.'
And some argued Emanuel still could have ways to try to appeal to progressives along with moderates.
Another Democratic strategist argued that Emanuel scored multiple progressive victories during his tenure as mayor, including raising the minimum wage in a phased approach before many other major cities.
Emanuel also defended Chicago's sanctuary city status as President Trump was about to come into office in 2016.
'Presidential campaigns are usually about one thing. It's not about issues, it's not about ideology. It's about strength. Rahm's as strong as you get,' the strategist said. 'Sometimes Rahm is too strong for people. But if you're looking for a bare-knuckled fighter who's going to take on this MAGA mess … there's your guy.'
The campaign strategist acknowledged a feeling within Democratic circles of wanting to move on to a new, younger generation and that Emanuel comes from the old guard. But serving as ambassador allowed him to avoid having to take a public stance on the Israel-Hamas war, one of the most divisive topics within the party since 2023, unlike most other names who have been considered possible candidates, they added.
But they said now is the time to speak up and take the more prominent role Emanuel has been taking.
'I think there's a major vacuum for strong national leadership of the Democratic Party,' they said. 'So those who step up I think will be rewarded.'
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