The Danger of a Market Melt-Up
Yet despite an 18.9 percent downturn in the S&P 500 earlier this year, the stock market has rebounded. It has continually shrugged off shocks that, in previous years, may have set off a prolonged bear market.
In fact, stocks have become expensive again. While the potential for a serious market downturn hasn't vanished, I think it's also time to begin thinking about another problem: the danger of a market melt-up.
By many measures, we're already in perilously overvalued territory. On a historical basis, share prices are high in relation to corporate earnings, assets and the size of the overall economy.
I don't want to go too far with this. The U.S. stock market isn't nearly as expensive as it was at the height of the dot.com bubble in the late 1990s and early 2000. But it is increasingly pricey — surprisingly so, when you consider the repeated blows to market sentiment dealt by the Trump administration.
Tariffs re-emerged as a major issue over the past week. The administration issued an array of announcements: Tariffs will increase, be delayed, not be delayed, be imposed on copper, be negotiated lower, be made permanent, and on and on. Who really knows? The stock market has been absorbing this information, stumbling from time to time but then regaining its footing. While the economic impact of the tariffs has barely been felt yet, the stock market remains much higher than it was at the beginning of the year.
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Yahoo
25 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Qantas set to face huge fine in court, rush hour chaos after crash on major bridge, leaders 'very afraid' of Trump meeting
Hello and welcome to Yahoo's live news blog this Monday. Qantas is set to learn its fate after illegally sacking 1,800 workers during the Covid-19 pandemic. The airline is set to face a hefty fine, with the union behind the workers calling for it to surpass $100 million. A crash on Sydney's Anzac Bridge has caused traffic chaos this morning. The five-vehicle crash left thre lanes heading into the city closed as traffic backed up several kilometres. Follow along as we bring you regular updates throughout the day. Treasurer admits 'a lot of work to do' for productivity Treasurer Jim Chalmers is warning there is no quick fix for productivity as the government is set to commence its much-hyped round table. "Productivity has been elusive over the last couple of decade, but it will be essential to the couple of decades ahead. That's what motivates and drives us in this economic reform round table," he told reporters on Monday. "This productivity challenge has been bedevilling our economy for a couple of decades. The weakest decade for productivity growth in the last 60 years was the Coalition decade. That is the situation we inherited. It will take some time to turn around. "We have a lot of work to do." 'Boring' Aussie dad's first move after winning lottery A self-described "boring guy" headed straight to Google after landing $1.6 million as one of four division one winners in the Saturday Lotto. The Armidale father went through all the questions in his head via the search engine, admitting he was unable to sleep after the huge win. 'It's all a bit surreal. When I checked my ticket on my online account, my first reaction was 'Holy dooly!'. It was crazy to see right in front of me," he told lottery officials. 'A thousand thoughts started going through my mind. I was wondering whether it was real or not, and what I needed to do now." World leaders move to avoid unwanted Trump scenario European and NATO leaders announced they will join Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House to present a united front in talks with Donald Trump on ending Russia's war in Ukraine. Leaders from Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Finland are rallying around the Ukrainian president after his exclusion from Trump's summit on Friday with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Their pledge to be at Zelensky's side at the White House on Monday is an apparent effort to ensure the meeting goes better than the last one in February, when Trump berated Zelenskyy in a heated Oval Office encounter. 'The Europeans are very afraid of the Oval Office scene being repeated and so they want to support Mr Zelensky to the hilt,' said retired French Gen. Dominique Trinquand, a former head of France's military mission at the United Nations. 'It's a power struggle and a position of strength that might work with Trump,' he said. Read more from Associated Press here. Rush hour chaos as city-bound lanes closed Sydney has been plunged into traffic chaos after a five-vehicle crash on the Anzac Bridge, with cars backed all the way up to Leichhardt. The crash happened in the eastbound lanes about 6.30am on Monday. Live traffic cameras show three of the four eastbound lanes are blocked, and the gridlock stretches back almost 3km down the A44. The right-hand westbound lane is also blocked by emergency response vehicles. An Ambulance NSW spokesman said five vehicles were involved in the crash; three cars, a motorbike and a truck. All people who needed to be checked by paramedics had minor injuries, the spokesman said. The male motorbike rider was still however taken to the Royal Prince Alfred Hospital. Images show at least four police vehicles and two road crews are on scene. A damaged dark-coloured sedan stopped sideways across two lanes was put onto a tow truck about 7am. There is also a cement truck which appears to have been involved in the crash. Live Traffic NSW are advising motorists to slow down to 40km/h and plan for their commute to take extra time. - NewsWire Qantas set for big fine after illegally sacking workers Australia's largest airline is staring down the barrel of another nine-figure fine for illegally sacking more than 1800 workers during the COVID-19 pandemic. The Federal Court will hand down a hefty penalty to Qantas on Monday in what will be the latest court blow for the airline after a scandal-plagued recent tenure. Qantas outsourced its baggage handlers, cleaners and ground staff in 2020, in a move the court ruled was designed to curb union bargaining power in wage negotiations. It appealed the ruling to the High Court but the decision was not overturned, paving the way for Monday's penalty. The Transport Workers Union has sought the maximum penalty of $121 million, while Qantas has urged Justice Michael Lee to impose a "mid-range" penalty between $40 million and $80 million. Qantas will cop the fine on top of a $120 million compensation payment it has made to the ground staff for their economic loss, pain and suffering since their jobs were outsourced during the pandemic. It has argued the actions were a mistake, not a deliberate breach of the law. Qantas also sold tickets to cancelled flights for several years, triggering more legal turmoil and a $100 million fine after it was sued by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission. The carrier, which was under the control of Alan Joyce at the time of the illegal sacking, lost billions of dollars during the pandemic, which decimated the aviation sector. But the former CEO did not address the scandal when he spoke at an aviation conference on Thursday, instead spruiking his ability to keep the airline afloat in unprecedented times. "But here's the real insight: resilience isn't a reaction … it's a decision made years in advance, often when it's uncomfortable, even unpopular," he said. "Qantas was the only major Australian airline not to go bankrupt during or after the pandemic … that wasn't luck. That was resilience." Do you have a story tip? Email: newsroomau@ You can also follow us on Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, Twitter and YouTube. Treasurer admits 'a lot of work to do' for productivity Treasurer Jim Chalmers is warning there is no quick fix for productivity as the government is set to commence its much-hyped round table. "Productivity has been elusive over the last couple of decade, but it will be essential to the couple of decades ahead. That's what motivates and drives us in this economic reform round table," he told reporters on Monday. "This productivity challenge has been bedevilling our economy for a couple of decades. The weakest decade for productivity growth in the last 60 years was the Coalition decade. That is the situation we inherited. It will take some time to turn around. "We have a lot of work to do." Treasurer Jim Chalmers is warning there is no quick fix for productivity as the government is set to commence its much-hyped round table. "Productivity has been elusive over the last couple of decade, but it will be essential to the couple of decades ahead. That's what motivates and drives us in this economic reform round table," he told reporters on Monday. "This productivity challenge has been bedevilling our economy for a couple of decades. The weakest decade for productivity growth in the last 60 years was the Coalition decade. That is the situation we inherited. It will take some time to turn around. "We have a lot of work to do." 'Boring' Aussie dad's first move after winning lottery A self-described "boring guy" headed straight to Google after landing $1.6 million as one of four division one winners in the Saturday Lotto. The Armidale father went through all the questions in his head via the search engine, admitting he was unable to sleep after the huge win. 'It's all a bit surreal. When I checked my ticket on my online account, my first reaction was 'Holy dooly!'. It was crazy to see right in front of me," he told lottery officials. 'A thousand thoughts started going through my mind. I was wondering whether it was real or not, and what I needed to do now." A self-described "boring guy" headed straight to Google after landing $1.6 million as one of four division one winners in the Saturday Lotto. The Armidale father went through all the questions in his head via the search engine, admitting he was unable to sleep after the huge win. 'It's all a bit surreal. When I checked my ticket on my online account, my first reaction was 'Holy dooly!'. It was crazy to see right in front of me," he told lottery officials. 'A thousand thoughts started going through my mind. I was wondering whether it was real or not, and what I needed to do now." World leaders move to avoid unwanted Trump scenario European and NATO leaders announced they will join Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House to present a united front in talks with Donald Trump on ending Russia's war in Ukraine. Leaders from Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Finland are rallying around the Ukrainian president after his exclusion from Trump's summit on Friday with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Their pledge to be at Zelensky's side at the White House on Monday is an apparent effort to ensure the meeting goes better than the last one in February, when Trump berated Zelenskyy in a heated Oval Office encounter. 'The Europeans are very afraid of the Oval Office scene being repeated and so they want to support Mr Zelensky to the hilt,' said retired French Gen. Dominique Trinquand, a former head of France's military mission at the United Nations. 'It's a power struggle and a position of strength that might work with Trump,' he said. Read more from Associated Press here. European and NATO leaders announced they will join Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House to present a united front in talks with Donald Trump on ending Russia's war in Ukraine. Leaders from Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Finland are rallying around the Ukrainian president after his exclusion from Trump's summit on Friday with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Their pledge to be at Zelensky's side at the White House on Monday is an apparent effort to ensure the meeting goes better than the last one in February, when Trump berated Zelenskyy in a heated Oval Office encounter. 'The Europeans are very afraid of the Oval Office scene being repeated and so they want to support Mr Zelensky to the hilt,' said retired French Gen. Dominique Trinquand, a former head of France's military mission at the United Nations. 'It's a power struggle and a position of strength that might work with Trump,' he said. Read more from Associated Press here. Rush hour chaos as city-bound lanes closed Sydney has been plunged into traffic chaos after a five-vehicle crash on the Anzac Bridge, with cars backed all the way up to Leichhardt. The crash happened in the eastbound lanes about 6.30am on Monday. Live traffic cameras show three of the four eastbound lanes are blocked, and the gridlock stretches back almost 3km down the A44. The right-hand westbound lane is also blocked by emergency response vehicles. An Ambulance NSW spokesman said five vehicles were involved in the crash; three cars, a motorbike and a truck. All people who needed to be checked by paramedics had minor injuries, the spokesman said. The male motorbike rider was still however taken to the Royal Prince Alfred Hospital. Images show at least four police vehicles and two road crews are on scene. A damaged dark-coloured sedan stopped sideways across two lanes was put onto a tow truck about 7am. There is also a cement truck which appears to have been involved in the crash. Live Traffic NSW are advising motorists to slow down to 40km/h and plan for their commute to take extra time. - NewsWire Sydney has been plunged into traffic chaos after a five-vehicle crash on the Anzac Bridge, with cars backed all the way up to Leichhardt. The crash happened in the eastbound lanes about 6.30am on Monday. Live traffic cameras show three of the four eastbound lanes are blocked, and the gridlock stretches back almost 3km down the A44. The right-hand westbound lane is also blocked by emergency response vehicles. An Ambulance NSW spokesman said five vehicles were involved in the crash; three cars, a motorbike and a truck. All people who needed to be checked by paramedics had minor injuries, the spokesman said. The male motorbike rider was still however taken to the Royal Prince Alfred Hospital. Images show at least four police vehicles and two road crews are on scene. A damaged dark-coloured sedan stopped sideways across two lanes was put onto a tow truck about 7am. There is also a cement truck which appears to have been involved in the crash. Live Traffic NSW are advising motorists to slow down to 40km/h and plan for their commute to take extra time. - NewsWire Qantas set for big fine after illegally sacking workers Australia's largest airline is staring down the barrel of another nine-figure fine for illegally sacking more than 1800 workers during the COVID-19 pandemic. The Federal Court will hand down a hefty penalty to Qantas on Monday in what will be the latest court blow for the airline after a scandal-plagued recent tenure. Qantas outsourced its baggage handlers, cleaners and ground staff in 2020, in a move the court ruled was designed to curb union bargaining power in wage negotiations. It appealed the ruling to the High Court but the decision was not overturned, paving the way for Monday's penalty. The Transport Workers Union has sought the maximum penalty of $121 million, while Qantas has urged Justice Michael Lee to impose a "mid-range" penalty between $40 million and $80 million. Qantas will cop the fine on top of a $120 million compensation payment it has made to the ground staff for their economic loss, pain and suffering since their jobs were outsourced during the pandemic. It has argued the actions were a mistake, not a deliberate breach of the law. Qantas also sold tickets to cancelled flights for several years, triggering more legal turmoil and a $100 million fine after it was sued by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission. The carrier, which was under the control of Alan Joyce at the time of the illegal sacking, lost billions of dollars during the pandemic, which decimated the aviation sector. But the former CEO did not address the scandal when he spoke at an aviation conference on Thursday, instead spruiking his ability to keep the airline afloat in unprecedented times. "But here's the real insight: resilience isn't a reaction … it's a decision made years in advance, often when it's uncomfortable, even unpopular," he said. "Qantas was the only major Australian airline not to go bankrupt during or after the pandemic … that wasn't luck. That was resilience." Australia's largest airline is staring down the barrel of another nine-figure fine for illegally sacking more than 1800 workers during the COVID-19 pandemic. The Federal Court will hand down a hefty penalty to Qantas on Monday in what will be the latest court blow for the airline after a scandal-plagued recent tenure. Qantas outsourced its baggage handlers, cleaners and ground staff in 2020, in a move the court ruled was designed to curb union bargaining power in wage negotiations. It appealed the ruling to the High Court but the decision was not overturned, paving the way for Monday's penalty. The Transport Workers Union has sought the maximum penalty of $121 million, while Qantas has urged Justice Michael Lee to impose a "mid-range" penalty between $40 million and $80 million. Qantas will cop the fine on top of a $120 million compensation payment it has made to the ground staff for their economic loss, pain and suffering since their jobs were outsourced during the pandemic. It has argued the actions were a mistake, not a deliberate breach of the law. Qantas also sold tickets to cancelled flights for several years, triggering more legal turmoil and a $100 million fine after it was sued by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission. The carrier, which was under the control of Alan Joyce at the time of the illegal sacking, lost billions of dollars during the pandemic, which decimated the aviation sector. But the former CEO did not address the scandal when he spoke at an aviation conference on Thursday, instead spruiking his ability to keep the airline afloat in unprecedented times. "But here's the real insight: resilience isn't a reaction … it's a decision made years in advance, often when it's uncomfortable, even unpopular," he said. "Qantas was the only major Australian airline not to go bankrupt during or after the pandemic … that wasn't luck. That was resilience."
Los Angeles Times
26 minutes ago
- Los Angeles Times
Newsom demands information from Trump after Border Patrol appearance outside his news conference
Gov. Gavin Newsom filed a request Sunday seeking records from the Trump administration to explain why a phalanx of Border Patrol agents showed up outside a news conference held by leading California Democrats last week. Newsom filed a Freedom of Information Act request with the U.S. Department of Homeland Security asking for 'all documents and records' related to the Aug. 14 Border Patrol operation in downtown Los Angeles, which took place outside the Japanese American National Museum in Little Tokyo. At the news conference, Newsom announced a campaign to seek voter approval to redraw California's congressional maps to boost Democrats' chances of retaking the House and stymieing Trump's agenda in the 2026 midterm elections. 'Trump's use of the military and federal law enforcement to try to intimidate his political opponents is yet another dangerous step towards authoritarianism,' Newsom posted Sunday on X. 'This is an attempt to advance a playbook from the despots he admires in Russia and North Korea.' Newsom announced at the press event the 'Election Rigging Response Act' — which would scrap independently drawn congressional maps in favor of those sketched by Democratic strategists in an attempt to counter moves by Republicans in Texas and other GOP-led states to gerrymander their own districts to favor Republicans in the 2026 midterms. Meanwhile, dozens of armed federal agents massed in the adjacent streets wearing masks, helmets and camouflage. Newsom and other leading Democrats, including L.A. Mayor Karen Bass, dismissed the Border Patrol action as an intimidation tactic. In response to questions from The Times on Sunday, Department of Homeland Security spokeswoman Tricia McLaughlin said the agents were 'focused on enforcing the law, not on [Newsom].' McLaughlin said two people were arrested during the Little Tokyo operation. One was a drug trafficker, according to McLaughlin, who said the other was a member of Tren de Aragua, a Venezuelan gang that has been a focus of the Trump administration's efforts to use the Alien Enemies Act to speed up deportation efforts. She did not respond to questions about how many agents were deployed or what specific agencies were involved in the Aug. 14 operation. Border Patrol Sector Chief Gregory Bovino, who has been leading the Trump administration's aggressive immigration operations in California, was at the scene and briefly spoke to reporters. McLaughlin did not name either person arrested or respond to a request for further information or evidence of links between the arrests and the Venezuelan gang. 'Under President Trump and [Department of Homeland Security] Secretary [Kristi] Noem, if you break the law, you will face the consequences,' she wrote in an e-mailed statement. 'Criminal illegal aliens are not welcome in the U.S.' On Thursday, witnesses at the scene identified one of the men arrested as Angel, a delivery worker who was carrying strawberries when he was captured. 'He was just doing his normal delivery to the courthouse,' said the man's colleague, Carlos Franco. 'It's pretty sad, because I've got to go to work tomorrow, and Angel isn't going to be there.' In the FOIA request, Newsom's legal affairs secretary, David Sapp, called the Border Patrol deployment an 'attempt to intimidate the people of California from defending a fair electoral process.' In addition to documents related to the planning of the raid, the FOIA request also seeks 'any records referencing Governor Newsom or the rally that was scheduled to occur' and communications between federal law enforcement officials and Fox News, which allowed the Trump-friendly media outlet to embed a reporter with Border Patrol that day. Trump's increased use of the military and federal law enforcement against his political rivals has drawn growing concern in recent months. The president deployed the National Guard and U.S. Marines to quell protests against immigration raids in Los Angeles earlier this year. Just last week, Trump sent swarms of federal law enforcement officials to Washington, D.C., to combat what he sees as out-of-control crime, despite the fact that most crime statistics show violence in the nation's capital is at a 30-year low. Although Newsom demanded an answer by early September, the federal government is notoriously slow in responding to FOIA requests and will often delay responses for years. A spokesman for Newsom did not immediately respond to questions on Sunday about what, if any, other legal steps the governor was prepared to take. Voters would have to approve Newsom's plan to redraw the congressional maps in a special election in November. The new maps, drawn by Democratic strategists and lawmakers behind closed doors instead of the independent commission that voters previously chose, would concentrate Republican voters in a few deep-red pockets of the state and eliminate an Inland Empire district long held by the GOP. In total, Democrats would likely pick up five seats in California in the midterms under the redrawn maps, possibly countering or outpacing Republican efforts to tilt their map red in Texas. Other states have already begun to consider redrawing their maps along more partisan lines in response to growing anxieties over the fight to control the House of Representatives in 2026. Times staff writer Seema Mehta contributed to this report.
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Oil falls on easing Russia supply concerns after Trump-Putin meet
By Florence Tan SINGAPORE (Reuters) -Oil prices slipped on Monday as the U.S. did not exert more pressure on Russia to end the Ukraine war by implementing further measures to disrupt Russian oil exports after the presidents from both countries met on Friday. Brent crude futures dropped 26 cents, or 0.39%, to $65.59 a barrel by 0028 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $62.62 a barrel, down 18 cents, or 0.29%. U.S. President Donald Trump met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday and emerged more aligned with Moscow on seeking a peace deal instead of a ceasefire first. Trump will meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and European leaders on Monday to strike a quick peace deal to end Europe's deadliest war in 80 years. The U.S. president said on Friday he did not immediately need to consider retaliatory tariffs on countries such as China for buying Russian oil but might have to "in two or three weeks", cooling concerns about a disruption in Russian supply. China, the world's biggest oil importer is the largest Russian oil buyer followed by India. "What was primarily in play were the secondary tariffs targeting the key importers of Russian energy, and President Trump has indeed indicated that he will pause pursuing incremental action on this front, at least for China," RBC Capital analyst Helima Croft said in a note. "The status quo remains largely intact for now," Croft said, adding that Moscow will not walk back on territorial demands while Ukraine and some European leaders will balk at the land-for-peace deal. Investors are also watching Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell's comments at the Jackson Hole meeting this week to search for clues on the path of interest rate cuts that could boost stocks to more record highs. "It's likely he will remain non-committal and data-dependent, especially with one more payroll and CPI (Consumer Price Index) report before the September 17th FOMC meeting," IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said in a note. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
