Optimism shines through Galwan gloom as Rajnath Singh reaches China
Before that, on June 12, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong came to India and held talks with Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri and Ajit Doval. Given this backdrop, the military and diplomatic significance of the Defence Minister's visit is self-evident.CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM, UNDERCURRENTS OF DISCONTENTThere is cautious optimism within Chinese strategic circles about China-India ties finally emerging out of the shadow of confrontation. Wang Shida, executive director and researcher at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, praised the process of "restoring and making good use of institutional dialogue mechanisms between China and India" as the best guarantee for stability and improvement of bilateral ties.advertisementMany in China now hope that this will eventually culminate in Prime Minister Narendra Modi visiting China later this year and holding a one-to-one meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, thereby turning the unpleasant page of the border dispute and ushering in a new chapter in India-China ties.But, there is also discontent brewing below the surface. A common allegation is that the Modi government might be shifting from "cold confrontation" to "cold cooperation", and that, at its core, India still views China as a long-term competitor. Substantive progress in bilateral ties, Chinese commentators believe, remains elusive.For example, the Chinese side is increasingly getting restless over the delay in the resumption of direct flights between China and India, without which they argue, talking about economic cooperation with India is meaningless. As per Chinese accounts, Chinese high officials have been consistently building up pressure on India not to let these interactions become mere photo-ops, and that it takes hard decisions on flight resumption, investment access and people-to-people connect, among other things.India, on the other hand, is trying to find a delicate balance between improving ties with China and maintaining strategic precautions. For example, in the field of new energy investment, India has allowed Chinese companies to participate, but explicitly set requirements like technology transfer and localisation ratio of more than 65 per cent.advertisementIt's no wonder that China, which hoped to win through by weaponising India's dependence on Chinese supply chains (like in the rare-earth space), is dissatisfied with India's persistent defiance. Chinese strategic circles warn of bilateral ties getting stuck in a long-term "competitive coexistence" trap if India doesn't give in to these demands immediately.CORNERING INDIA IN STRATEGIC AUTOMONYThere is also a lot of resentment in China about India's "lackadaisical presence" in what is understood in Beijing as China-led multilateral platforms, like the SCO and Brics. On the one hand, the Chinese side is aware of how India's economic heft and population size bring legitimacy to these platforms. On the other hand, however, it often condemns India as a stumbling block in these organisations. The popular sentiment is that India tends to use these platforms to enhance its international voice.Reacting to news of Singh's upcoming visit, many on the Chinese internet pointed out how, just a few weeks back, the Indian government publicly "deviated" from the SCO agenda. On June 14, the SCO issued a strongly-worded statement condemning Israel's military actions in the Middle East. But, India distanced itself from the statement and emphasised that it "did not participate in any relevant discussions".advertisementThe Chinese side notes that this was not the first time that India has acted independently in the SCO or Brics settings. In October 2023, the SCO summit in Pakistan was supposed to adopt a joint communique supporting China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). India refused to sign the relevant paragraph, and as a result, the SCO could not release a joint communique.Similarly, on the eve of the 2023 Brics summit in South Africa, China wanted the endorsement of an ambitious currency plan, a "Brics basket of currencies" to challenge the international settlement system dominated by the US dollar. India firmly opposed it and not only refused to participate, but also advocated starting a new initiative to promote the internationalisation of the rupee.There are also concerns that India is not just countering China's effort to dominate the agenda of Brics and SCO, but it is also striving to use these multilateral platforms to promote its strategic demands. For example, in September 2023, at the Brics Foreign Ministers' meeting, India, Brazil and South Africa jointly proposed that the new member states must support the three countries to become permanent members of the UN Security Council. As a result, the Chinese side argued, the meeting fell into a deadlock and ultimately failed to release a joint statement.advertisementWHAT'S ON THE AGENDA?Given all this, there are discussions galore on the Chinese internet cornering the visiting defence minister and India's stance on the current Iran-Israel conflict in particular, and India's overall attitude towards Brics and SCO in general. The idea is to use this as a smokescreen, avoiding tough questions on the Chinese government's underwhelming support for Iran, despite the country being a member of both SCO and Brics and having a 25-year cooperation agreement with China.Other than that, India also needs to be vigilant about China's renewed interest in resuming the Russia-India-China trilateral mechanism as a tool to pressurise India on the issue of renminbi (Chinese yuan) settlement.Overall, given the turbulent times that we are in, when the world is witnessing major wars, a positive turn in China-India bilateral ties is indeed a welcome development. But India needs to be cautious of the many traps that may come its way going forward.(Antara Ghosal Singh is Fellow, ORF, New Delhi. She is a graduate from Tsinghua University, China, and has been a Chinese language fellow at the National Central University, Taiwan)- Ends(Views expressed in this opinion piece are those of the author)Must Watch
IN THIS STORY#Rajnath Singh#India-Pakistan#India-China#Middle East#Iran#Israel
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