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Bangkok Post
13-07-2025
- Business
- Bangkok Post
China must 'play long game' with trade partners as 'US looks like the big bully': analysts
With US President Donald Trump sending more tariff letters to trade partners, Beijing has stepped up efforts - like rallying its own trade partners - to collectively push back against Washington's trade protectionism. The world's second-largest economy will provide considerable development opportunities - from broader market access to greater regional integration - while being mindful of US threats, according to statements this week following a string of overseas visits by Chinese officials. Some analysts say the comments suggest that Beijing is embracing an increasingly pragmatic approach, rather than just strongly worded warnings, as it fortifies itself for another round of talks with Washington early next month. "China needs to project a firm diplomatic stance to declare its principles, while this should be coupled with actions that offer tangible benefits to its neighbouring trade partners," said Chen Fengying, a senior fellow at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations. "The US will inevitably impose additional tariffs on transshipped goods," Chen said. "So, it is crucial for China to play the long game with its neighbours and gradually build a more unified regional market." While meeting his counterparts on Thursday at the China-Asean Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi vowed to upgrade the existing free-trade agreement with the 10-nation bloc. Most members received a 20-40% hit from Trump's so-called reciprocal tariffs. Wang also offered an olive branch to South Korea and Japan, vowing to move towards a trilateral free-trade deal, and to promote the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, a trade deal comprising major Asian economies and Australia. "The more complex the situation becomes, the more we must shield our cooperation from disruptions," he said. A day earlier, commerce vice-minister Ling Ji arrived in Cambodia, where he expressed to officials China's willingness to "jointly address the risks and challenges posed by protectionism and unilateralism". Cambodia, a country with rising Chinese investment, was hit with a 36% US tariff. Transshipments by Chinese exporters are a key target of the US tariffs. Louise Loo, head of Asia economics at Oxford Economics, said that while the definition of a "transshipment" remains unclear, the tiered-tariff system in the Vietnam-US deal is set to weaken the advantage of "China plus one" manufacturing. "Economies like Vietnam and Cambodia, which are highly reliant on Chinese inputs, are particularly vulnerable," Loo said. Nick Marro, principal economist for Asia at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said: "It's obvious that the transshipment tariffs are targeting China - Beijing knows this. So, they are going to be very sensitive to any move by the Vietnamese or any other economy to crack down on Chinese shipments. "At the end of the day, Beijing doesn't want to alienate other countries at a time when the US looks like the big bully in the room." Asian governments, caught between China and the US, may seek lower tariff rates before Trump's Aug 1 deadline. However, Washington's one-after-another tariff decisions set a high threshold for tariff relief, according to analysts, and some say it could be advantageous for Beijing to encourage other countries to take a harder stance. "Tariffs would presumably be removed if recipient economies decide to build or manufacture products within the United States," Loo said. "We think this represents a very high bar for a complete tariff de-escalation." Loo pointed to South Korea's experience, noting that, despite relocating part of Hyundai's production to the US and increasing reshoring efforts, the country still faced a 25 per cent tariff. And Vietnam, despite being receptive to a deal since Trump announced his "Liberation Day" tariffs on April 2, still saw its US-bound goods hit with a 20% tariff. South Korea and Japan - US allies slapped with 25% US tariffs - are seeking to take a harder stance in negotiations. Canada, a free-trade neighbour of the United States under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, was hit with a 35% duty. Brazil, a key member of the Brics bloc of emerging economies, including China, has threatened to retaliate against the 50% tariff that Washington slapped on Brazilian exports to the US. "The tariffs on Brazil, in response to the treatment of former president Jair Bolsonaro, showcase how tariffs are being used as a tool for a number of aims of the administration," two of HSBC's global economists, James Pomeroy and Maitreyi Das, wrote in a note on Friday.
India Today
25-06-2025
- Politics
- India Today
Optimism shines through Galwan gloom as Rajnath Singh reaches China
From June 25 to 27, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh is in China to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Defence Ministers' meeting, the first visit by a senior Indian minister to the country since the Galwan Valley clash in from the meeting, Singh also plans to hold a bilateral meeting with his Chinese counterpart Dong Jun, possibly to restart the China-India military hotline. This will be the second time the two defence ministers will meet since the last "ice-breaking talks" at the Asean Defence Ministers' meeting in Laos in will also be the first visit of the Indian Defence Minister to China since the end of the India-Pakistan conflict in May. The visit was preceded by National Security Advisor Ajit Doval meeting Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing. Before that, on June 12, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong came to India and held talks with Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri and Ajit Doval. Given this backdrop, the military and diplomatic significance of the Defence Minister's visit is OPTIMISM, UNDERCURRENTS OF DISCONTENTThere is cautious optimism within Chinese strategic circles about China-India ties finally emerging out of the shadow of confrontation. Wang Shida, executive director and researcher at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, praised the process of "restoring and making good use of institutional dialogue mechanisms between China and India" as the best guarantee for stability and improvement of bilateral in China now hope that this will eventually culminate in Prime Minister Narendra Modi visiting China later this year and holding a one-to-one meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, thereby turning the unpleasant page of the border dispute and ushering in a new chapter in India-China there is also discontent brewing below the surface. A common allegation is that the Modi government might be shifting from "cold confrontation" to "cold cooperation", and that, at its core, India still views China as a long-term competitor. Substantive progress in bilateral ties, Chinese commentators believe, remains example, the Chinese side is increasingly getting restless over the delay in the resumption of direct flights between China and India, without which they argue, talking about economic cooperation with India is meaningless. As per Chinese accounts, Chinese high officials have been consistently building up pressure on India not to let these interactions become mere photo-ops, and that it takes hard decisions on flight resumption, investment access and people-to-people connect, among other on the other hand, is trying to find a delicate balance between improving ties with China and maintaining strategic precautions. For example, in the field of new energy investment, India has allowed Chinese companies to participate, but explicitly set requirements like technology transfer and localisation ratio of more than 65 per no wonder that China, which hoped to win through by weaponising India's dependence on Chinese supply chains (like in the rare-earth space), is dissatisfied with India's persistent defiance. Chinese strategic circles warn of bilateral ties getting stuck in a long-term "competitive coexistence" trap if India doesn't give in to these demands INDIA IN STRATEGIC AUTOMONYThere is also a lot of resentment in China about India's "lackadaisical presence" in what is understood in Beijing as China-led multilateral platforms, like the SCO and Brics. On the one hand, the Chinese side is aware of how India's economic heft and population size bring legitimacy to these platforms. On the other hand, however, it often condemns India as a stumbling block in these organisations. The popular sentiment is that India tends to use these platforms to enhance its international to news of Singh's upcoming visit, many on the Chinese internet pointed out how, just a few weeks back, the Indian government publicly "deviated" from the SCO agenda. On June 14, the SCO issued a strongly-worded statement condemning Israel's military actions in the Middle East. But, India distanced itself from the statement and emphasised that it "did not participate in any relevant discussions".advertisementThe Chinese side notes that this was not the first time that India has acted independently in the SCO or Brics settings. In October 2023, the SCO summit in Pakistan was supposed to adopt a joint communique supporting China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). India refused to sign the relevant paragraph, and as a result, the SCO could not release a joint on the eve of the 2023 Brics summit in South Africa, China wanted the endorsement of an ambitious currency plan, a "Brics basket of currencies" to challenge the international settlement system dominated by the US dollar. India firmly opposed it and not only refused to participate, but also advocated starting a new initiative to promote the internationalisation of the are also concerns that India is not just countering China's effort to dominate the agenda of Brics and SCO, but it is also striving to use these multilateral platforms to promote its strategic demands. For example, in September 2023, at the Brics Foreign Ministers' meeting, India, Brazil and South Africa jointly proposed that the new member states must support the three countries to become permanent members of the UN Security Council. As a result, the Chinese side argued, the meeting fell into a deadlock and ultimately failed to release a joint ON THE AGENDA?Given all this, there are discussions galore on the Chinese internet cornering the visiting defence minister and India's stance on the current Iran-Israel conflict in particular, and India's overall attitude towards Brics and SCO in general. The idea is to use this as a smokescreen, avoiding tough questions on the Chinese government's underwhelming support for Iran, despite the country being a member of both SCO and Brics and having a 25-year cooperation agreement with than that, India also needs to be vigilant about China's renewed interest in resuming the Russia-India-China trilateral mechanism as a tool to pressurise India on the issue of renminbi (Chinese yuan) given the turbulent times that we are in, when the world is witnessing major wars, a positive turn in China-India bilateral ties is indeed a welcome development. But India needs to be cautious of the many traps that may come its way going forward.(Antara Ghosal Singh is Fellow, ORF, New Delhi. She is a graduate from Tsinghua University, China, and has been a Chinese language fellow at the National Central University, Taiwan)- Ends(Views expressed in this opinion piece are those of the author)Must Watch IN THIS STORY#Rajnath Singh#India-Pakistan#India-China#Middle East#Iran#Israel
