China must 'play long game' with trade partners as 'US looks like the big bully': analysts
The world's second-largest economy will provide considerable development opportunities - from broader market access to greater regional integration - while being mindful of US threats, according to statements this week following a string of overseas visits by Chinese officials.
Some analysts say the comments suggest that Beijing is embracing an increasingly pragmatic approach, rather than just strongly worded warnings, as it fortifies itself for another round of talks with Washington early next month.
"China needs to project a firm diplomatic stance to declare its principles, while this should be coupled with actions that offer tangible benefits to its neighbouring trade partners," said Chen Fengying, a senior fellow at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations.
"The US will inevitably impose additional tariffs on transshipped goods," Chen said. "So, it is crucial for China to play the long game with its neighbours and gradually build a more unified regional market."
While meeting his counterparts on Thursday at the China-Asean Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi vowed to upgrade the existing free-trade agreement with the 10-nation bloc. Most members received a 20-40% hit from Trump's so-called reciprocal tariffs.
Wang also offered an olive branch to South Korea and Japan, vowing to move towards a trilateral free-trade deal, and to promote the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, a trade deal comprising major Asian economies and Australia.
"The more complex the situation becomes, the more we must shield our cooperation from disruptions," he said.
A day earlier, commerce vice-minister Ling Ji arrived in Cambodia, where he expressed to officials China's willingness to "jointly address the risks and challenges posed by protectionism and unilateralism".
Cambodia, a country with rising Chinese investment, was hit with a 36% US tariff.
Transshipments by Chinese exporters are a key target of the US tariffs.
Louise Loo, head of Asia economics at Oxford Economics, said that while the definition of a "transshipment" remains unclear, the tiered-tariff system in the Vietnam-US deal is set to weaken the advantage of "China plus one" manufacturing.
"Economies like Vietnam and Cambodia, which are highly reliant on Chinese inputs, are particularly vulnerable," Loo said.
Nick Marro, principal economist for Asia at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said: "It's obvious that the transshipment tariffs are targeting China - Beijing knows this. So, they are going to be very sensitive to any move by the Vietnamese or any other economy to crack down on Chinese shipments.
"At the end of the day, Beijing doesn't want to alienate other countries at a time when the US looks like the big bully in the room."
Asian governments, caught between China and the US, may seek lower tariff rates before Trump's Aug 1 deadline.
However, Washington's one-after-another tariff decisions set a high threshold for tariff relief, according to analysts, and some say it could be advantageous for Beijing to encourage other countries to take a harder stance.
"Tariffs would presumably be removed if recipient economies decide to build or manufacture products within the United States," Loo said. "We think this represents a very high bar for a complete tariff de-escalation."
Loo pointed to South Korea's experience, noting that, despite relocating part of Hyundai's production to the US and increasing reshoring efforts, the country still faced a 25 per cent tariff.
And Vietnam, despite being receptive to a deal since Trump announced his "Liberation Day" tariffs on April 2, still saw its US-bound goods hit with a 20% tariff.
South Korea and Japan - US allies slapped with 25% US tariffs - are seeking to take a harder stance in negotiations. Canada, a free-trade neighbour of the United States under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, was hit with a 35% duty.
Brazil, a key member of the Brics bloc of emerging economies, including China, has threatened to retaliate against the 50% tariff that Washington slapped on Brazilian exports to the US.
"The tariffs on Brazil, in response to the treatment of former president Jair Bolsonaro, showcase how tariffs are being used as a tool for a number of aims of the administration," two of HSBC's global economists, James Pomeroy and Maitreyi Das, wrote in a note on Friday.
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