What Will Happen When Xi Jinping Dies?

Memri

3 days ago

Xi Jinping has made himself China's new emperor – its president for life. Under Xi's command, China has abandoned many of its free-market capitalist policies in favor of centralized control even if it carried economic repercussions. Xi has also pursued global hegemony and engaged in bad behavior in trade, diplomacy, and grey zone tactics to achieve it. This triggered tensions between China and the countries with whom it has territorial disputes, not to mention nations that defend the rule-based order.
Xi Jinping has made himself China's new emperor.
Whether Xi will be successful or not remains to be seen. His quest toward "the rejuvenation of the great Chinese race/nation" is a story that is still being told.
But what will happen when Xi dies? Will his successor revert to capitalist values if only to save the economy from further decline? Will his successor abandon the country's hegemonic ambitions and begin to respect the rule-based order? Or will his successor double down on the bad behavior that Xi started?
The truth is, no one knows. No one knows because Xi has no apparent political successor.
Since eliminating presidential term limits in March 2018, Xi has consolidated power around himself. Those who challenge his leadership, whether overtly or covertly, have been banished from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), imprisoned or abducted without a trace. The few who display promise are suppressed and given no relevant responsibilities within the CCP.
As for the next generation of leaders, the CCP continues to comb universities across the country to find rising political stars. Essays, term papers and campus activities of university students are monitored and those deemed to pose a threat to Xi's regime are disallowed from entering the political system. Fledgling political leaders under 25 are not allowed to flourish in this regime.
China's leadership revolves and depends solely on Xi and nobody knows what will happen after his passing. To the outside world, we can only assume that whoever succeeds Xi will follow his policies. But for the Chinese people, the specter of Xi's death is frightful.
This is because Xi is leaving an economy not in the pink of health. It continues to deal with crippling debt, declining foreign investments, and capital flight in the trillions of dollars. It is plagued with high youth unemployment, a property bust, diminished household wealth and low consumer demand. The trade war with the U.S. and looming sanctions from America exacerbate uncertainties.
China's red-hot economy has significantly cooled, having been tempered by Xi's policies to control the economy through state-owned corporations. He funded the country's economic expansion through debt and spooked foreign investors with stringent anti-espionage policies. On top of all this, China faces a demographic timebomb, a result of its one-child policy, which officially ended in 2015.
Geopolitically, Xi has provoked tension through aggressive grey zone tactics against Taiwan, the Philippines, India, Japan, Vietnam, and Indonesia, among others.
In short, Xi has put China in a difficult position, both economically and geopolitically. Whoever succeeds him will have a lot of work to do.
The Likely Scenario
Upon Xi's passing, a period of official mourning will be declared with patriotic messaging in full swing to reinforce unity. The government will likely impose strict media censorship to control the narrative and prevent speculation and unrest.
In terms of security, the regime will increase surveillance and mobilize its security apparatus to deter protests and political maneuvering.
A leadership vacuum will occur, and this will lead to even more uncertainty. Xi's absence will embolden factions within the party, like the Communist Youth League, to regroup and make a play for power. We can expect intense power struggles among the elites, the military, and the rival political factions within the CCP. This will cause temporary chaos, at best, or prolonged political instability, at worst. The CCP will have to convene an emergency Party Congress or Politburo meetings to stabilize the leadership hierarchy and reassert control.
Many speculate that Premier Li Qiang is a strong candidate to be acting leader while the CCP consolidates around a successor. At the onset, he will naturally have to intensify civil discipline to preserve the CCP's power. This will further repress the rights of Chinese society, stoking the fires of civil unrest.
If China's next leader is indeed Li Qiang (who is less of a hardliner than Xi Jinping in terms of economic policy and ideological rigidity), China's foreign policy will become more conciliatory. Besides, unrest at home will make it difficult for the new leadership to double down on Xi's aggressive style.
Economically, Xi's death will cause Chinese and international markets (especially in Hong Kong and Shanghai) to experience a sharp downturn due to uncertainty about succession and future policy directions. Investors will pull money out of China, fearing instability or a breakdown in political control, especially if there's no clear successor. The yuan will depreciate rapidly as capital seeks safety in other stable assets.
Chinese businesses, already cautious due to regulatory crackdowns under Xi, will freeze investments or hiring until there is clarity. Multinational corporations will delay expansion plans, concerned about whether a successor will be more business-friendly or nationalistic. Uncertainty will also depress consumer spending.
All these will prompt the new leadership (assuming it is Li Qiang or someone who is less of a hardliner) to shift back toward pragmatism, loosening controls over private enterprise, easing regulatory crackdowns on tech and education, and relaxing controls on real estate and private business. To hasten stability, the new leader will likely ease trade tensions with the U.S., the EU, and neighbors – potentially boosting exports and foreign investment. The CCP may even introduce fiscal and monetary stimulus or tax relief.
No one lives forever. A leader who is less rigid in his Maoist/Leninist ideology would do well for China. On the contrary, a Xi clone, or one who continues the current path of heavy state control, will cause long-term inefficiencies and structural defects in the economy, while further isolating the country in the world arena.
*Andrew J. Masigan is the MEMRI China Media Studies Project Special Advisor. He is a Manila-based economist, businessman, and political columnist for The Philippine Star. Masigan's articles in MEMRI are also published in The Philippine Star.