N.B. tariff aid largely untapped as Trump deadline looms

Yahoo

25-07-2025

New Brunswick's tariff response plan, announced back in March, has seen few requests for help from businesses or communities, despite warnings about the province's precarious position, with more than 90 per cent of exports destined for the United States.
For example, two emergency tariff funds, set aside for labour adjustments and impacted communities, have had no takers, except for Campobello Island, which got $186,000 for an early start to its summer ferry service.
As for Saint John, identified as Canada's most vulnerable city, private investment appears to be booming, from development on the waterfront, to mammoth investments at the refinery and the west side pulp mill.
Port Saint John says it's on track to have the most growth, ever.
| Why early fears of Trump tariffs have yet to be realized:
Economist Herb Emery says this is because the worst harm from tariffs and tariff uncertainty has yet to materialize and may not become apparent for another year or two or more.
'We're in kind of a weird window, where the full tariff impact hasn't hit yet," Emery said.
"But it is starting to impact decision-making. Do you build your next plant in the United States or do you try to expand in New Brunswick?"
Aug. 1 deadline looming
Premier Susan Holt says the push is on to get the best deal for Canada ahead of an Aug. 1 deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump.
Without one, Trump has threatened to push a tariff on imports from Canada to 35 per cent from 25 per cent, although exemptions would include goods that comply with the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement.
Also looming is an anti-dumping countervailing duty on Canadian lumber, set to rise from 14.54 per cent to 34.5 per cent, "within weeks," according to Forest NB, an industry association.
This week, Arbec Forest Products blamed market conditions when it announced a six-week shutdown, starting in September at its Miramichi plant, where it makes wood panels for housing construction. .
"Like many other New Brunswick businesses, our exports to the U.S. have been drastically affected by the current tariff situation," general manager Adam Stone said in a written statement.
"We are hopeful that this pause in production will allow us to rebalance our inventories and find additional markets."
Arbec said 113 employees will be affected, including 29 who won't have jobs when operations resume.
The company said it's working closely with government agencies to assist affected workers.
Meanwhile, forestry giant, J.D. Irving Ltd. is spending $1.1 billion to upgrade its boiler at the Irving Pulp and Paper mill in Saint John, and the Irving Oil refinery is upgrading its fluid catalytic cracking unit, which produces gasoline and diesel, at a cost of $100 million.
Seafood holding steady
New Brunswick seafood continues to enter the United States without a Trump tariff.
"Spring production went well," said Geoff Irvine, executive director at the Lobster Council of Canada. "Demand was steady. "There are no [U.S.] tariffs today, but there is uncertainty about tariffs and that's almost as bad."
Refined petroleum products and electricity produced in New Brunswick are also entering the United States tariff free.
In February, Irving Oil warned customers in Maine, it would pass along the costs of Trump's 10 per cent tariff on energy but then reversed that decision after tariffs were paused.
Statistics Canada shows mixed results for New Brunswick exports since Trump was sworn into office late in January.
Comparing the first five months of this year with the first five of 2024, the total value of New Brunswick exports to the U.S. fell 2.8 per cent, according to data from Statistics Canada.
Broken down by sector, fish and farm products fell 2.5 per cent, forestry and building products slipped two per cent but energy product exports rose 4.5 percent.
None of it has dampened volume at Port Saint John, which is having a banner year.
"We get asked that a lot," said Craig Bell Estabrooks, the port's CEO. "What is the shipping activity at the port? What are the volumes looking like? And we're proud to report that they're very, very strong."
Estabrooks said container volumes are significantly higher than the port has ever seen.
"It's growth that we were hoping for earlier in the year. But with the uncertainty, we didn't know if it was going to materialize, but it certainly has."
Campobello line item
Residents on Campobello Island face an hour-long drive, over the bridge to Lubec, Maine, and then through the U.S. and back into mainland New Brunswick, where they purchase supplies. That's when the ferry isn't running.
This year, the island was singled out for assistance. The ferry started in May, one month early and residents are exempt from paying retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods coming in.
"It was so helpful just to get that little bit because, you know, the average person that works maybe didn't mind paying, you know, 20 bucks or something on a bunch of groceries for a tariff, but you know, there's people that just couldn't afford it," said Campobello Mayor Harvey Matthews
Matthews said he hasn't noticed a lot of change in the local economy, although he thinks the number of American visitors may be down. He said some U.S. citizens who own property on the island have yet to show up for the summer and that feels unusual.
Otherwise, he says people are managing as before.
"I'm a fisherman," Matthews said. "I guess everything was the same. What we shipped to the States is still going to the States, and what goes the other way is still going the other way. But that could change any minute.
"You know, it just takes one announcement."