Latest news with #HerbEmery
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
N.B. tariff aid largely untapped as Trump deadline looms
New Brunswick's tariff response plan, announced back in March, has seen few requests for help from businesses or communities, despite warnings about the province's precarious position, with more than 90 per cent of exports destined for the United States. For example, two emergency tariff funds, set aside for labour adjustments and impacted communities, have had no takers, except for Campobello Island, which got $186,000 for an early start to its summer ferry service. As for Saint John, identified as Canada's most vulnerable city, private investment appears to be booming, from development on the waterfront, to mammoth investments at the refinery and the west side pulp mill. Port Saint John says it's on track to have the most growth, ever. | Why early fears of Trump tariffs have yet to be realized: Economist Herb Emery says this is because the worst harm from tariffs and tariff uncertainty has yet to materialize and may not become apparent for another year or two or more. 'We're in kind of a weird window, where the full tariff impact hasn't hit yet," Emery said. "But it is starting to impact decision-making. Do you build your next plant in the United States or do you try to expand in New Brunswick?" Aug. 1 deadline looming Premier Susan Holt says the push is on to get the best deal for Canada ahead of an Aug. 1 deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump. Without one, Trump has threatened to push a tariff on imports from Canada to 35 per cent from 25 per cent, although exemptions would include goods that comply with the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement. Also looming is an anti-dumping countervailing duty on Canadian lumber, set to rise from 14.54 per cent to 34.5 per cent, "within weeks," according to Forest NB, an industry association. This week, Arbec Forest Products blamed market conditions when it announced a six-week shutdown, starting in September at its Miramichi plant, where it makes wood panels for housing construction. . "Like many other New Brunswick businesses, our exports to the U.S. have been drastically affected by the current tariff situation," general manager Adam Stone said in a written statement. "We are hopeful that this pause in production will allow us to rebalance our inventories and find additional markets." Arbec said 113 employees will be affected, including 29 who won't have jobs when operations resume. The company said it's working closely with government agencies to assist affected workers. Meanwhile, forestry giant, J.D. Irving Ltd. is spending $1.1 billion to upgrade its boiler at the Irving Pulp and Paper mill in Saint John, and the Irving Oil refinery is upgrading its fluid catalytic cracking unit, which produces gasoline and diesel, at a cost of $100 million. Seafood holding steady New Brunswick seafood continues to enter the United States without a Trump tariff. "Spring production went well," said Geoff Irvine, executive director at the Lobster Council of Canada. "Demand was steady. "There are no [U.S.] tariffs today, but there is uncertainty about tariffs and that's almost as bad." Refined petroleum products and electricity produced in New Brunswick are also entering the United States tariff free. In February, Irving Oil warned customers in Maine, it would pass along the costs of Trump's 10 per cent tariff on energy but then reversed that decision after tariffs were paused. Statistics Canada shows mixed results for New Brunswick exports since Trump was sworn into office late in January. Comparing the first five months of this year with the first five of 2024, the total value of New Brunswick exports to the U.S. fell 2.8 per cent, according to data from Statistics Canada. Broken down by sector, fish and farm products fell 2.5 per cent, forestry and building products slipped two per cent but energy product exports rose 4.5 percent. None of it has dampened volume at Port Saint John, which is having a banner year. "We get asked that a lot," said Craig Bell Estabrooks, the port's CEO. "What is the shipping activity at the port? What are the volumes looking like? And we're proud to report that they're very, very strong." Estabrooks said container volumes are significantly higher than the port has ever seen. "It's growth that we were hoping for earlier in the year. But with the uncertainty, we didn't know if it was going to materialize, but it certainly has." Campobello line item Residents on Campobello Island face an hour-long drive, over the bridge to Lubec, Maine, and then through the U.S. and back into mainland New Brunswick, where they purchase supplies. That's when the ferry isn't running. This year, the island was singled out for assistance. The ferry started in May, one month early and residents are exempt from paying retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods coming in. "It was so helpful just to get that little bit because, you know, the average person that works maybe didn't mind paying, you know, 20 bucks or something on a bunch of groceries for a tariff, but you know, there's people that just couldn't afford it," said Campobello Mayor Harvey Matthews Matthews said he hasn't noticed a lot of change in the local economy, although he thinks the number of American visitors may be down. He said some U.S. citizens who own property on the island have yet to show up for the summer and that feels unusual. Otherwise, he says people are managing as before. "I'm a fisherman," Matthews said. "I guess everything was the same. What we shipped to the States is still going to the States, and what goes the other way is still going the other way. But that could change any minute. "You know, it just takes one announcement."
Yahoo
03-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Province touts positive fiscal numbers for N.B., but economist urges caution
While a report on the New Brunswick economy is showing largely positive numbers, one economist warns the financial winds may have already shifted. The provincial government released its "2024 Economy in Review" on Wednesday. The report indicates the provincial economy grew by 1.8 per cent last year, slightly up from 1.7 per cent growth in 2023. In a statement on the province's website, Finance Minister René Legacy said that while there was uncertainty, "these results are encouraging." But Herb Emery, an economist at the University of New Brunswick, said any results may already be out of date. "It fits with sort of an attempt that's going on in the region to put forward a positive spin," "We already know that those statistics are out of date, and we're forecast to have the slowest growth in New Brunswick of all the provinces in the upcoming year." The 'real economy' Emery said none of the positive economic movement is related to the "real economy," including manufacturing. He points to a population that increased 2.7 per cent as a complicated driving factor in the positive economic numbers. While the province said the increase was largely attributable to immigration from outside Canada, it also includes migration from within Canada, and the demographics wouldn't point to an economic boon for the province. "A lot of that immigration wasn't working age population," Emergy said. "It's just people who want to reside here and have sources of income like pensions from somewhere else." Emery also said much of the positive job numbers, employment rose by 2.9 per cent, aren't economically sustainable. "It's really been government spending and government employment that's been driving a lot of that growth," he said. Trump and Carney Emery said the future of the province's economy will largely be affected by two men, Prime Minister Mark Carney and U.S. President Donald Trump. With Trump, the issue is his capricious treatment of Canada since he started a trade war, and the usually strong trading relationship between Canada and the United States. "This is Trump's thing … you have to get Donald's approval to get into anything," Emery said. "By creating that kind of world where it's your relationships with people and not rules, it's going to create a lot of transaction costs." As for Carney, the prime minister will have several competing visions about what projects to support and where to cut expenditures, Emery said. It's not certain the province will come out in a better position. "We're so heavily dependent on the federal government to do anything in this province … that if those federal transfers get squeezed, if not cut, in the next five years … then we're going to have our own fiscal crisis in the province that's going to limit what we can do in terms of economic development. Among other findings in the report on 2024: Employment rose 2.9 per cent, the fourth consecutive year of growth. The labour force grew 3.5 per cent, making for a higher unemployment rate, which, at seven per cent, was still lower than it was during most of the last 50 years. Labour shortages eased, turning to levels close to those before the COVID pandemic. Average weekly earnings were about $1,145, up 3.7 per cent, which is not as high as the national increase. Retail and manufacturing sales were up 3.3 per cent and 1.6 per cent respectively.
CBC
20-05-2025
- Business
- CBC
New immigration minister must address low Atlantic Canada retention rates, expert says
Social Sharing An economist in New Brunswick says Canada's new immigration minister needs to consider how to keep immigrants in Atlantic Canada, a region that has historically struggled to convince newcomers they should stay for more than a year or two. Lena Metlege Diab, a member of Parliament from Nova Scotia, was recently appointed as Canada's minister of immigration, refugees and citizenship. Herb Emery, who holds the Vaughan Chair in regional economics at the University of New Brunswick, said Diab's Atlantic roots mean she is likely to have a better understanding of the challenges the region faces, especially its difficulty retaining immigrants. Atlantic Canada has lower retention rates for immigrants than the rest of the country, with a Statistics Canada report in December 2024 noting: "Immigrants who left their intended Atlantic provinces were increasingly likely to settle in Ontario." P.E.I. specifically has the lowest retention rate in Canada, though the situation is slightly improving, according to the province's population framework released last year. The three-year retention rate for immigrants to P.E.I. rose from 33.3 per cent in 2017 to 43 per cent in 2021. Better pay key to retaining newcomers Emery said the solution to improving these numbers is straightforward: create better economic opportunities. "You need to provide opportunities to earn a good living. When you look at the wages and median incomes of newcomers, they're quite low in the region," Emery told CBC's Island Morning. "What we've tried to prioritize is filling the lower-wage jobs that Canadians don't want to fill, and if you want to be a professional after a couple of years, the opportunities to integrate are better in other provinces, where they have better resources for settlement, they have more opportunities for working in your profession." He said the region has relied on immigration to address immediate labour shortages, particularly due to its aging population and high youth out-migration to other provinces like Alberta and Ontario, but it hasn't focused enough on building a long-term sustainable workforce. "A lot of that reflects the industries we have in the region, which is seasonal, and in a lot of cases, they don't have high margins and they are labour-intensive." Support for existing immigrants Emery added that during the pandemic, there was "a complete lack of control" over the number of immigrants coming into the country. "We weren't doing a good job of integrating the newcomers into our labour market and our wider society," he said. That's why he thinks more effort should be placed on supporting immigrants who are already in the region by helping them get their credentials recognized, so they can work in their professions. He also mentioned the idea of tax policies designed to encourage long-term settlement. "Do you give them a bonus tax break if they remain in that region for longer? "Now, if you put them in low-skilled jobs, there's no advantages to tax breaks. If you create the conditions that somebody can work as a physician, and they start earning a high income, you may give them an advantage to staying if you give them some kind of credit if they remain in the region for five, six, seven years," Emery said. The Atlantic provinces should also focus on keeping international students in the region after they graduate, he said. Interprovincial trade barriers As Canada explores ways to strengthen its economy in the face of U.S. tariff threats, there's been growing discussion around removing interprovincial trade barriers. But Emery cautioned that when it comes to immigration and economic growth, eliminating these barriers could be "a dangerous gamble for a small region." He said the barriers exist in part to give smaller provinces like those in Atlantic Canada an incentive for businesses to locate there, countering the "economic gravity" that naturally pulls enterprise toward larger provinces. As we start to drop those trade barriers, there's two ways this can go. One is we're really competitive, and we get more jobs and more GDP. The other is, it hollows us out, and we wind up with a health-care system and an education system and not much else. "When you have thicker labour markets, like in Ontario, it's much easier for an employer that's manufacturing to set up there than in our region, where it may be a tough thing to bring in more labour to fill those jobs that are hard to do," he said. "So as we start to drop those trade barriers, there's two ways this can go. One is we're really competitive, and we get more jobs and more GDP. The other is, it hollows us out, and we wind up with a health-care system and an education system and not much else."
