What next for EU-Poland ties after Nawrocki's election win? – DW – 06/03/2025
Newly elected Polish President Karol Nawrocki is known as an EU skeptic. How can he sway Poland's EU policy, and how is he viewed in Brussels?
Right-wing conservative Karol Nawrocki has won the race for the Polish presidency. During the election campaign, Nawrocki touted his affinity with US President Donald Trump and pledged a "Poland first" approach. He opposes Ukraine's accession to NATO and is perceived as an EU skeptic. Polish voters elected Nawrocki with the slimmest of margins on Monday morning, prompting reactions across all of Europe.
Many heads of state and government congratulated the future Polish president. Among those belonging to the right-wing political spectrum were Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. The latter enthused about a "fantastic victory" and strengthening the work of the Visegrad Group, a political alliance consisting of Poland, Hungary, The Czech Republic and Slovakia. Other heads of state and government, including Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda, emphasized common values. French President Emmanuel Macron called on Poland to champion a Europe that's "strong, independent, competitive" and "respects the rule of law."
EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen sent congratulations as well. On X, she wrote: "I'm confident that the EU will continue its very good cooperation with Poland. We are all stronger together in our community of peace, democracy, and values."
Nawrocki ideologically close to PiS party
Nawrocki is officially non-partisan, but entered the campaign for presidency as a candidate backed by the right-wing conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party that ruled Poland between 2015 and 2023. During its term of office, the party reformed the Polish judicial system, sparking an ongoing dispute with Brussels over accusations of dismantling the rule of law. This eventually led to a so-called Article 7 procedure. The European Union's Article 7 allows for the suspension of member state rights if that state seriously and repeatedly violates the EU core values.
Despite new government, Poland remains polarized
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The procedure was closed last year when the country announced it would implement the required changes. As a result, billions of euros were disbursed to Poland, funds that had previously been frozen by the EU due to concerns about the rule of law. Many Polish government proposals were vetoed by sitting President Andrzej Duda, who also has PiS leanings. Observers expect this obstructive stance to continue under the new president. The EU Commission declined to speculate on possible repercussions. In its daily press briefing, it emphasized its confidence in Poland's further implementation of reforms and its support for the country's efforts.
Are new tensions with the EU over the rule of law imminent?
Daniel Freund, a member of the European Parliament, fears that Poland's political deadlock will continue. He calls on the EU commission to correct its "mistake" — prematurely releasing frozen EU funds — and to continue putting pressure on Poland.
Piotr Buras, Warsaw bureau head of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), told DW that the EU Commission would have to take into consideration what actually happened in Poland. For example, the government under Donald Tusk had seen to it that illegal laws are no longer applied, thus removing the grounds for Article 7 proceedings. Buras believes that a renewed clash with the EU over the rule of law is out of the question with the Tusk government in power.
Nawrocki is expected to obstruct the agenda of Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk (pictured above) Image: Frederic GARRIDO-RAMIREZ/European Union
How will the ballot impact Poland's EU policy?
According to Buras, the newly elected president does not have the chance to exert direct influence on Poland's EU policy, because according to the Polish constitution this is solely down to the government, the political scientist said.
As commander-in-chief of the armed forces, the president of Poland appoints the government, signs international treaties, and has the power to veto laws. This is precisely how Nawrocki could interfere with the government's EU policy, said Buras. As soon as EU policy had to be implemented in national legislation, he could block it, thereby reducing the Tusk government's room for maneuver, he added. Buras expects such blockades in issues like the rule of law, abortion, migration and climate policy. He simultaneously pointed out that the Tusk government was itself far from progressive in the areas of migration and climate policy.
EU Parliament torn between joy and skepticism
Whereas Manfred Weber, chairman of the conservative European People's Party (EPP) group in the European Parliament, hoped that Nawrocki would work "constructively' with Poland's government for the country's benefit, MEP Rene Repasi believed that the Polish government was caught up in a "mess." For the social democrat, new parliamentary elections are not unlikely, because the right-wing conservative Nawrocki and the "Tusk government's progressive agenda" would get in each other's way.
However, the right-wing conservative European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group, which also includes Poland's PiS party, welcomed Nawrocki's election victory. Europe must remain a "community of free nations," not a "machine" that ignores "the will of the people," said the group's co-chairman, Nicola Procaccini.
Political scientist Buras, however, believes that Nawrocki's election victory was not tantamount to voting against the EU. Neither PiS nor Nawrocki had ever called for Poland's exit from the bloc. At the same time, Buras added that skepticism regarding a loss of sovereignty and interference in the country's internal affairs was widespread in Poland, and Nawrocki had taken advantage of that prevailing mood.
This article was originally written in German.
Edited by: Jess Smee
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