How many wins are Colts projected to have in 2025?

USA Today

12-02-2025

Super Bowl 59 is only a few days behind us, but Pro Football Network has already started looking ahead to the 2025 season for the Indianapolis Colts.
Using their NFL Playoff Predictor, Pro Football Network ran 10,000 simulations, which are based on their power rankings, for the upcoming season to determine how many wins each NFL team will have in 2025.
The Colts, in these 10,000 simulations, finished with almost an identical record to 2024, averaging 7.8 wins and 9.2 losses. The Colts would make the playoffs in 32.9% of these simulations and won the AFC South 29.0% of the time.
There are two big unknowns when it comes to trying to figure out how the upcoming season might unfold for the Colts: what do the Colts get from Anthony Richardson, and how does Chris Ballard handle the offseason?
The 2024 season was a roller coaster ride for Richardson, who completed just 47% of his passes with eight touchdowns to 12 interceptions and he also missed multiple games with injuries.
For those reasons–injuries and inconsistent play–Ballard did say that he will bring in competition for Richardson this offseason.
However, if you're looking for reasons for optimism, Richardson's play did improve after he returned to the starting lineup after being benched. In addition to that, unlike last offseason, he is fully healthy this year and will also be working with the same quarterback coach that Josh Allen did early in his career.
Ballard, meanwhile, wants to fight off complacency and help elevate the level of play throughout the roster by infusing it with competition. If he does that, there are a few position groups, including tight end, safety, and cornerback, that could look quite different at the start of 2025 than what they do now. And if that's the case, how differently do PFN's simulations play out?
As I described recently, Ballard accomplishing this doesn't mean breaking the bank salary cap-wise with only top of the market additions either. The Eagles' and Howie Roseman just showcased the importance of constantly churning the middle and bottom portions of the depth chart to help facilitate improved play.
Especailly this early in the offseason, attempting to gauge where the Colts will end up record-wise in 2025 isn't easy. One could see a path to improvement but recent history might suggest otherwise. Ultimately, the Colts' ceiling–and floor–will be determined by the answers to the two questions mentioned above.