Guardians mailbag, Part 1: Past and present trade talk, Steven Kwan vs. Kenny Lofton, more

New York Times

12-05-2025

CLEVELAND — Straight to your questions, which have been lightly edited for clarity.
Why are the Cleveland Guardians so afraid of letting Ben Lively pitch into the sixth inning or the third time through a batting order? It seems the club has decided there's no scenario in which it'd push him. — Mike K.
Here are Lively's splits from last year:
• First time through the order: .643 opponent OPS
• Second time through the order: .708 opponent OPS
• Third time through the order: .946 opponent OPS
Advertisement
The league-wide splits last year weren't as pronounced, but Lively is far from the only pitcher whose effectiveness dips the more a hitter sees him.
• First time through the order: .696 opponent OPS
• Second time through the order: .727 opponent OPS
• Third time through the order: .761 opponent OPS
But here's what's probably difficult for the Guardians to ignore. Consider Lively's numbers, based on pitch count, from last season:
• Pitches 1-25: .569 opponent OPS
• Pitches 26-50: .761 opponent OPS
• Pitches 51-75: .706 opponent OPS
• Pitches 76 and on: .965 opponent OPS
The Guardians yanked Lively after only 63 pitches against the Washington Nationals last week, which was puzzling since they played three games in Washington, D.C., in 24 hours, which is a recipe for disaster for a bullpen. Manager Stephen Vogt suggested they had identified early when they wanted to turn to Tim Herrin, so he summoned the lefty even though Lively had breezed his way to the sixth inning.
Lively made 29 starts last season. He reached the 90-pitch mark in only 10 of them and topped 100 pitches only once. Interestingly, this season, Lively has — in a tiny sample — fared well as his pitch count has crept toward triple digits. We'll see if, over time, he can convince Vogt to keep him out there longer.
Someone on Guardians Reddit unearthed a story from the 2014-15 offseason about the club considering a trade for Brandon Moss, with José Ramírez as one of the names being sent out in return. Is this the greatest positive what-if in Cleveland baseball history? — Tyler B.
Along those lines, I know of some conversations Cleveland and the Cincinnati Reds had years ago about Cincy swapping speedy outfielder Billy Hamilton for a pitching prospect.
Anyway, yeah, what a colossal train wreck that Ramírez-for-Moss trade would have been. I can confirm that, as the Athletics inquired about a young infielder as the return, Ramírez's name came up, though how seriously his inclusion was considered is tough to say. I've talked to executives about the art of trade talks over the years, and — especially now, with so much information available, whether prospect rankings or metrics or video — there's a fine line to walk while asking for a player you covet, but not someone so off-limits that the other team will hang up and deem your credibility dashed. A lot of names are often tossed out. As for Ramírez, at that time, he was essentially keeping shortstop warm for Francisco Lindor, but he had always crushed minor-league pitching.
Moss, one of many Band-Aids applied to a long-deficient outfield, was an All-Star in 2014, but he underwent hip surgery six weeks before he was sent to Cleveland for infielder Joey Wendle that December. A couple of months later, Sports Illustrated placed Corey Kluber and Michael Brantley on its cover and proclaimed Cleveland would win the 2015 World Series. Uh, it did not, and Moss didn't last past July. He had a miserable 94-game tenure in Cleveland, and the team dumped him at the trade deadline. Wendle had a few nice years — he was an All-Star in 2021 — as he bounced around to four teams over nine big-league seasons.
Advertisement
Oh, and as for those Reds-Indians trade talks: Cleveland finally got its hands on Hamilton, albeit for four weeks as a spring training signee in 2021, when a guy named Shane Bieber — that pitching prospect from a few years earlier — was the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner.
How does David Fry fit into the roster plans for the rest of the season? — Andrew K.
It's definitely a weird fit, since Fry, who underwent Tommy John surgery over the offseason, can serve only as the designated hitter once he returns. Kyle Manzardo and Carlos Santana already occupy the DH/first-base spots, but one of them will have to cough up some at-bats for Fry, who could return in a month or so.
Fry might have made sense as a platoon partner for Manzardo, a left-handed hitter, but Manzardo has tormented lefties this season (and deserves a chance to showcase he can play every day anyway). Instead, the Guardians could have a crowd at DH and first, which explains why first-base prospect C.J. Kayfus has been getting reps in right field at Triple-A Columbus.
Is there any reason to be optimistic about an extension for Steven Kwan? — Brett C.
Well, the clock's ticking. Kwan can become a free agent after the 2027 season. The way this season is unfolding, it's not absurd to think he could finish in the top 10 in the AL MVP balloting. Doing that once landed Andrés Giménez a $106.5 million contract from the risk-averse Guardians, and Giménez hadn't even reached arbitration yet.
Kwan is earning $4.175 million this year, and he'll be due for a hefty pay bump next year, so there isn't much leverage on the team's side. I really do think Kwan likes it here, and I'd imagine he will at least participate in a negotiation each spring. He's a reasonable guy. But he's also on his way to earning a nine-figure contract — from someone. And Cleveland typically likes to test the trade waters on players who are within two years of free agen… eh, let's not go there yet.
Advertisement
Can you give us an update on Daniel Espino and when we might see him? — Michael B.
The former top prospect had his right shoulder re-repaired 14 months ago. On the list of Things A Pitcher Desires, this ranks just behind 'being devoured by an orca' and just ahead of 'being traded to the Colorado Rockies.'
At the start of the month, Espino was throwing bullpen sessions. The step after that is to throw live bullpen sessions against real, human batters. Then, maybe, he can get into some games in some capacity later this summer, though the team will undoubtedly make this a deliberate journey back. Espino hasn't appeared in a professional game since April 29, 2022, or 1,110 days ago. If he can report to spring training fully healthy in 2026, that'd be a win.
I'm curious about your thoughts comparing Kwan to Kenny Lofton. The Indians would go how Kenny went. If he got on base, they scored. Steven isn't as fast, but it seems similar. — Pete S.
They're the two best table-setters I've seen since the team moved off the lakeshore and into Jacobs/Progressive Field in 1994. (An honorable mention to Grady Sizemore, who was an incredibly talented leadoff hitter but of a different mold.)
They might differ in terms of size and athleticism (Kwan wasn't a star hooper at his Pac-12 school like Lofton was), but they're similar in how well rounded they are. Gold Glove-winning outfielders? Check. Able to hit for average, draw walks and have a great grasp of the strike zone? Check. Able to at least pose the threat of hitting the ball into the outfield seats? Check. Kwan isn't going to steal 70 bases like Lofton could, and Lofton didn't have quite the unparalleled contact ability that Kwan does, but in their own ways, both frustrated the hell out of opposing pitchers. I'm sure Mike Hargrove and Vogt went/are going gray a bit more slowly because they could jot down those names in the top spot of their lineup each night.
Is there a realistic trade acquisition out there to start eyeballing? — Andy J.
This is probably a better question for, oh, I don't know, two months from now. But let's see, how about some random dart throws: Would Brandon Lowe, Drew Rasmussen or Mitch Keller do anything for you? How about rescuing one of the Rockies' starters, such as Kyle Freeland or Ryan Feltner or Germán Márquez? What about the Miami Marlins' Sandy Alcántara, provided he has straightened out his command by July?
How much longer will Vogt give the combination of Nolan Jones and Jhonkensy Noel in right field? — Tom C.
Jones will get a long leash for a few reasons. He's out of minor-league options, and the team traded Tyler Freeman to acquire him. And his hard-hit rate, exit velocity, walk rate and chase rate suggest he should be far more productive at the plate. The difference in his slugging percentage and expected slugging percentage (which is based on his quality of contact) suggests he's been the second-unluckiest slugger in the league, behind only Kansas City Royals catcher Salvador Pérez. Now, he still needs to deliver at the plate, especially once summer arrives and Chase DeLauter and Kayfus ready themselves for a promotion.
As for Noel, it's tough because he's on the short side of the right-field platoon, and the Guardians have faced 33 right-handed starters in 40 games. In another week or two, Lane Thomas will eat away at a bunch of the outfield at-bats, and Angel Martínez has proven worthy of some opportunities in center field. There's a spot for a powerful right-handed bat on this roster, but Noel hasn't had much of a chance to build any sort of rhythm and hasn't capitalized on the opportunities he has received.
The Guardians, obviously, had higher hopes for their right-field tandem. They desperately need a jolt from Jones and Noel, and a cavalry is on the way if things don't change.
(Top photo of Steven Kwan: Greg Fiume / Getty Images)