Why commodities are on a rollercoaster ride
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Reuters
3 days ago
- Reuters
Oil steady as investors weigh trade optimism against potential Venezuelan supply increase
LONDON, July 25 (Reuters) - Oil prices were steady on Friday, as trade talk optimism supported the outlook for both the global economy and oil demand, balancing news of the potential for more oil supply from Venezuela. Brent crude futures were up 18 cents, or 0.26%, at $69.36 a barrel at 1049 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 18 cents, or 0.27%, at $66.21. For the week, Brent was up just 0.1% from last Friday's close, while WTI was heading for a loss of around 1.7%. Brent prices have been largely range-bound between $67 and $70 a barrel for the last month, since the sharp drop in prices in late June after de-escalation in the Iran-Israel conflict. Oil prices are "caught in largely a holding pattern brought about by inconclusive specific oil drivers", PVM analyst John Evans said. Oil, along with stock markets, gained support from the prospect of more deals between the United States and trading partners ahead of an August 1 deadline for new tariffs on goods from an array of countries. After the U.S. and Japan secured a trade deal this week, two European diplomats said the European Union was moving towards a deal involving a baseline U.S. tariff of 15% on EU imports, plus possible exemptions. "Trade talk optimism appears to be offsetting expectations for stronger Venezuelan supply," ING analysts wrote in a client note on Friday. The U.S. is preparing to allow partners of Venezuela's state-run PDVSA ( starting with U.S. oil major Chevron (CVX.N), opens new tab, to operate with limitations in the sanctioned nation, sources said on Thursday. Venezuelan oil exports could consequently increase by a little more than 200,000 barrels per day, which would be welcome news for U.S. refiners, as it would ease tightness in the heavier crude market, ING analysts wrote. Prices were also supported this week by disruptions to Black Sea oil exports and Azeri BTC crude loading from the Turkish port of Ceyhan. "Delays in deliveries from the Russian terminal on the Black Sea and the Turkish port on the Mediterranean are likely to have contributed to the Brent oil price rising back towards $70. Now that exports are back to normal, support for prices is likely to ease," Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch said.
Reuters
3 days ago
- Reuters
Oil gains as trade talk optimism offsets potential higher Venezuelan supply
SINGAPORE, July 25 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Friday as trade talk optimism supported the outlook for both the global economy and oil demand, outweighing news of the potential for more oil supply from Venezuela. Brent crude futures touched a one-week high and was up 29 cents, or 0.42%, at $69.47 a barrel as of 0310 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed 29 cents, or 0.44%, to $66.32. Oil, along with stock markets, gained support from the prospect of more trade deals between the U.S. and trading partners ahead of August 1, when the U.S. will impose new tariffs on goods from an array of countries. The United States announced a trade deal with Japan on Wednesday, after which two European diplomats said the European Union was moving toward a deal involving a baseline 15% U.S. tariff on EU imports plus possible exemptions. "Trade talk optimism appears to be offsetting expectations for stronger Venezuelan supply," ING analysts wrote in a client note on Friday. The U.S. is preparing to allow partners of Venezuela's state-run PDVSA ( starting with U.S. oil major Chevron (CVX.N), opens new tab, to operate with limitations in the sanctioned nation, sources said on Thursday. Venezuelan oil exports could consequently increase by a little more than 200,000 barrels per day, which would be welcome news for U.S. refiners as it would ease tightness in the heavier crude market, ING analysts wrote. So far this week, Brent has gained 0.4% and WTI has fallen 1.4%. Both contracts advanced around 1% on Thursday driven by reports of cuts to Russian gasoline exports. Also supporting the market were U.S. crude inventory draws. U.S. Energy Information Administration data on Wednesday showed crude inventories fell last week by 3.2 million barrels to 419 million barrels, far more than the 1.6 million barrel draw estimated by analysts in a Reuters poll. "I am encouraged by the way crude oil held and bounced away from the $65/64 support band this week, which keeps hopes intact of a rebound back towards $70," said IG analyst Tony Sycamore, adding that next week will bring data for traders to chew over. Economic data next week from the world's biggest economies and oil consumers include factory activity in China and U.S. inflation, jobs and inventories.
Reuters
3 days ago
- Reuters
Dip in Asian currencies, outflows likely to keep up pressure on rupee
MUMBAI, July 25 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is expected to open weaker on Friday and trade with a modest depreciation bias amid a dip in its regional peers and lingering pressure from portfolio outflows as investors gird for an upcoming news-heavy week. The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee will open around 86.48-86.50 versus the U.S. dollar, compared with 86.4050 in the previous session. Asian currencies were down between 0.1% and 0.3%, while the dollar index ticked up to 97.5, as investors braced for U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff deadline, a Federal Reserve policy decision, and key U.S. economic data releases, all due next week. The rupee is expected to trade with a slight downward bias and could test support near 86.70-86.80 in the near term, a trader at a state-run bank said. While there is "nascent" interbank interest in taking long bets on the rupee, that is largely on the back of the market expecting some positive announcement on U.S.-India trade negotiations, the trader added. While optimism about U.S. trade deals with China and the European Union has picked up after an agreement with Japan, the prospects of a deal for India ahead of the August 1 deadline have dimmed. Britain and India signed a free trade agreement on Thursday, with India's trade minister saying that he remains confident of concluding a trade deal with the U.S. while downplaying the significance of the looming deadline. "Beyond tariffs and the rush to close the art of the deal, one continuing theme that we see in Asia and many countries outside the U.S. is the acceleration in moves to diversify away from or at least hedge with the U.S.," MUFG said in a note. In addition to the wait for a trade agreement with the U.S., foreign portfolio outflows have been a pain point for the rupee with overseas investors pulling out about $500 million from local stocks over July so far. KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 86.60; onshore one-month forward premium at 12.50 paisa ** Dollar index up 0.1% at 97.58 ** Brent crude futures up 0.5% at $69.5 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.4% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $382mln worth of Indian shares on July 23 ** NSDL data shows foreign investors sold a net $41.7mln worth of Indian bonds on July 23
